2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径主客观预报评价

利用目前中央气象台热带气旋路径实时业务预报中使用的各种主客观预报产品资料,对2002年西北太平洋和南海热带气旋路径实时业务预报中的主客观预报进行对比分析检验。结果显示：虽然在整体上主观预报要优于客观模式的结果,但客观模式的预报能力已接近主观预报,有时甚至还好于主观预报,特别是48小时以上时效的客观模式较主观预报具有一定的优势;而在客观模式中,全球模式优于台风模式;热带气旋路径数值模式产品的使用对提高热带气旋路径业务预报水平具有十分重要的作用。     

中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的数值研究

利用美国大气研究中心研制的第三代公共气候模式(CCM3)模拟了中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持的影响,数值试验结果表明,中南半岛对南海夏季风的建立和维持起了非常重要的作用.同时还就中南半岛影响南海夏季风建立和维持的机制进行了讨论.     

测井地质学前世、今生与未来——写在《测井地质学·第二版》出版之时

测井地质学以地质学和测井学的方法理论为指导,综合运用各种测井信息,来解决基础地质和石油地质的地质问题。经过数十年发展,测井地质学在油气勘探开发各个环节得到广泛应用。非常规油气的兴起使得测井地质学正面临多重挑战和全新探索,亟需建立针对非常规油气的测井地质学综合方法理论体系。本文以《测井地质学·第二版》出版为契机,系统归纳了测井地质学的起源及发展历程、主要研究内容和研究方法流程。然后总结了测井资料与地震、地质信息的匹配性,并分析了不同探测特性测井方法纵向分辨率区间特征。在此基础上评述了测井地质学在井旁构造解析、沉积学特征研究、层序地层划分、地应力方向判别及大小计算、井壁裂缝识别与评价、烃源岩评价以及非常规油气“七性关系”综合评价当中的应用。但由于测井资料的负载能力有限性、测井与地质信息属性不对应性以及测井资料本身的多解性,使得测井地质学在测井—地质转换、非常规油气测井评价及其与人工智能融合方面还存在一定的问题。因此加强基础岩石物理研究,挖掘测井曲线中包含的地质信息,并与人工智能相结合,将拓展测井地质学研究的精度和广度,从而使其未来可更好地应用至非常规油气测井评价等实践工作中。     

鄂尔多斯白垩系地下水盆地天然水体环境同位素组成及其水循环意义

鄂尔多斯白垩系地下水盆地天然水体的环境同位素组成表明,区内各种地表水体（河流和湖淖）在δ18O和δD图上主要分布在雨水线右侧,其关系线的斜率明显小于雨水线的蒸发线,集中反映蒸发作用对地表水体的影响。盆地内地下水大致集中沿雨水线分布,反映了白垩系盆地内地下水为大气降水成因。盆地南北两区地下水的环境同位素具有明显差异性特点,集中体现了盆地南北两区水循环条件的差异。盆地北区各含水岩组间地下水垂向水力联系比较密切,垂向运动特点比较明显,现代水积极循环带的深度为200 m;南区地下水分层性明显,以水平径流为主,现代水积极循环带的深度为160 m。区内浅层地下水以富氚和高¹⁴C含量为特征,反映为现代水补给;而中、深层地下水则以贫氚和低¹⁴C含量为特征,反映为地质历史时期补给。     

浙江象山港岛屿春、夏季潮间带大型底栖生物的群落结构特征

基于2015年4月(春季)和6月(夏季)象山港主要岛屿潮间带大型底栖生物的生态调查数据,采用优势度、生物多样性指数、次级生产力、聚类、多维尺度排序及丰度/生物量比较曲线等方法,分析了主要岛屿潮间带大型底栖生物的群落特征和季节变化。结果表明:(1)春、夏季共鉴定出大型底栖生物52种,其中底栖动物与底栖藻类各有45和7种,春、夏季共有物种数为34种,短滨螺、中间拟滨螺、齿纹蜒螺、青蚶等11种为春、夏季共有优势种;(2)夏季平均丰度(2074.85g/m²)高于春季(1505.01g/m²),春季平均生物量和次级生产力(2373.75ind./m²,16.31g/(m²·a))高于夏季(2210.17ind./m²,12.17g/(m²·a));(3)春季Shannon-Weiner多样性指数和Pielou’sevenness均匀度指数(2.742,1.679)高于夏季(2.580, 1.623),夏季Margalef丰富度指数(0.716)高于春季(0.667...     

雷达与雨量计联合估测降水的相关性分析

在对比分析质量控制前后雷达估测降水量与自动雨量计降水量之间相关性的基础上,采用雷达-雨量计联合校准方法,对14种不同密度雨量计校准雷达估测降水的效果进行分析。结果表明:在使用雷达资料和雨量计资料前有必要对资料的质量进行分析与控制。联合雨量计校准雷达能明显提高雷达对降水的估测能力;采用不同密度雨量计校准雷达,随着校准雨量计密度的加大,雷达估测降水的精度不断提高并趋于稳定。校准雷达的效果及所需雨量计密度与降水类型有关,当校准效果相同时,积云强降水过程需要的雨量计密度最大,积混对流性降水过程次之,层云稳定性降水过程需要的雨量计密度最小。不同方法的校准效果不同,卡尔曼滤波方法适合于对稳定性降水的校准,或在雨量计密度低的地区对雷达进行校准;变分校准法和最优插值法的校准效果相当,适合对积混对流性降水的校准,或在雨量计密度高的地区对雷达进行校准。     

Transient soil response in a porous seabed with variable permeability

The soil permeability of many natural marine sediments decreases with depth because of consolidation under overburden pressure. This is accompanied by a decrease in porosity and void ratio that also affect the permeability. Conventional theories for wave-induced soil response have assumed a homogeneous porous seabed. This paper presents a new approach for the wave-induced response in a soil matrix, with variable permeability as a function of burial depth. The soil matrix considered is unsaturated and anisotropic, and is subject to a three-dimensional wave system. The pore pressure and effective stresses induced by such a system are obtained from a set of equations incorporating a variable permeability. Verification is available through reduction to the simple case of uniform permeability. The results indicate that the effect of variable soil permeability on pore pressure and vertical effective stress may be significant, especially in a gravelled seabed and for unsaturated sandy soils.     

The Lower Changjiang (Yangzi/Yangtze River) metallogenic belt, east central China: intrusion- and wall rock-hosted Cu–Fe–Au, Mo, Zn, Pb, Ag deposits

The lower valley of Changjiang, from Wuhan of the Hubei Province in the west to Zhenjiang of the Jiangsu Province in the east, contains more than 200 polymetallic (Cu–Fe–Au, Mo, Zn, Pb, Ag) deposits and is one of the most important metallogenic belts in China. This metallogenic belt, situated at the northern margin of the Yangzi craton and bordered by the Dabieshan ultrahigh pressure metamorphic belt to the north, consists mainly of Cambrian–Triassic marine clastic sedimentary rocks and carbonate and evaporite rocks, which overlay a Precambrian basement and are intruded by Yanshanian (205 to 64 Ma) granitoid intrusions and subvolcanic complexes. Repeated tectonism from Late Proterozoic to Triassic resulted in extensively developed networks of faults and folds involving the Cambrian–Triassic sedimentary strata and the Precambrian basement. The Yanshanian granitoid intrusions and subvolcanic complexes in the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt are characterized by whole-rock δ¹⁸O of +8‰ to +10‰, initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr of 0.704 to 0.708, and εNd^t from −10 to −17 and have been interpreted to have originated from mixing between juvenile mantle and old crustal materials. Also, the Yanshanian granitoids exhibit eastward younging and increase in alkalinity (i.e., from older calc–alkaline in the west to younger subalkaline–alkaline in the east), which are related to oblique collision between the Yangzi and Sino-Korean cratons and tectonic evolution from early compressional to late extensional or rifting regimes. Most polymetallic deposits in the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt are clustered in seven districts where the Yanshanian magmatism is particularly extensive: from west to east, Edong, Jiurui, Anqing–Guichi, Luzhong, Tongling, Ningwu and Ningzhen. Mineralization is characterized by the occurrence of three distinct types of orebodies in individual deposits: orebodies in Yanshanian granitoid intrusions, skarn orebodies at the contact zones between the Yanshanian intrusions and Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary rocks, and stratabound massive sulfide orebodies in the Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary strata. The most important host sedimentary strata are the Middle Carboniferous Huanglong Formation, Lower Permian and Lower–Middle Triassic carbonate and evaporite rocks. The intrusion-hosted and skarn orebodies exhibit well-developed zonation in alteration assemblages, metal contents, and isotopic compositions within individual deposits, and apparently formed from hydrothermal activities related to the Yanshanian magmatism. The stratabound massive sulfide orebodies in the Late Paleozoic–Early Mesozoic sedimentary strata have long been suggested to have formed from sedimentary or volcano-sedimentary exhalative processes in shallow marine environments. However, extensive research over the last 40 years failed to produce unequivocal evidence for syngenetic mineralization. On the basis of geological relationships and isotope geochemical characteristics, we propose a carbonate-hosted replacement deposit model for the genesis of these stratabound massive sulfide orebodies and associated skarn orebodies. This model suggests that epigenetic mineralization resulted from interactions between magmatic fluids evolved from the Yanshanian intrusions with carbonate and evaporite wall rocks. Mineralization was an integral but distal part of the larger hydrothermal systems that formed the proximal skarn orebodies at the contact zones and the intrusion-hosted orebodies. The stratabound massive sulfide deposits of the Lower Changjiang metallogenic belt share many features with the well-studied, high-temperature, carbonate-hosted replacement deposits of northern Mexico and western United States, particularly with respect to association with small, shallow granitoid complexes, structural and stratigraphic controls on mineralization, alteration assemblages, geometry of orebodies, metal association, metal zonation and isotopic systematics.     

Koreatown and Korean Small Firms in Los Angeles: Locating in the Ethnic Neighborhoods*

The locations of Korean firms in Los Angeles reflect spatial segmentation in markets and the provision of labor, in that the ethnic neighborhoods facilitate positive business environments for ethnic small firms. While Korean small businesses serve both community needs and broader local markets, firm locations are closely associated with the residential patterns of some ethnic populations. To address the specificity of firm locations, this paper examines Koreatown using historical sources and recent property development, identifies changes in the locational patterns of Korean firms between 1975 and 1986, and analyzes relationships between business density and density of ethnic populations for zip code areas. The findings of this study indicate that both the development of Koreatown and the presence of ethnic neighborhoods are important influences on the location of Korean businesses.     

UbD理论指导下的高中地理逆向教学设计——以"中国的能源安全"为例

高中地理课程改革要求重视学科大概念。UbD理论提出的逆向教学设计是在教学中落实学科大概念的重要途径。UbD理论指导下的逆向教学设计以学科大概念为核心、以学习结果为起点、评价优先,能够在教学中凸显学科大概念的价值和作用,符合新课程改革的理念。本文以人教版高中地理选择性必修3中的“中国的能源安全”为例进行逆向教学设计,提出在地理课堂中应用UbD理论进行逆向教学设计的策略。