Time-scales of recent Phlegrean Fields eruptions inferred from the application of a ‘diffusive fractionation’ model of trace elements

The variation of chemical element compositions in two pyroclastic sequences (Astroni 6 and Averno 2, Phlegrean Fields, Italy) is studied. Both sequences are compositionally zoned indicating a variability of melt compositions in the magma chamber prior to eruption. A clear dichotomy between the behaviour of major vs. trace elements is also observed in both sequences, with major elements displaying nearly linear inter-elemental trends and trace elements showing a variable scattered behaviour. Together with previous petrological investigations these observations are consistent with the hypothesis that magma mixing processes played a key role in the evolution of these two magmatic systems. Recently it has been suggested that mixing processes in igneous systems may strongly influence the mobility of trace elements inducing a ‘diffusive fractionation’ phenomenon, whose extent depends on the mixing time-scale. Here we merge information from 1) numerical simulations of magma mixing, and 2) magma mixing experiments (using as end-members natural compositions from Phlegrean Fields) to derive a relationship relating the degree of ‘diffusive fractionation’ to the mixing time-scales. Application of the ‘diffusive fractionation’ model to the two studied pyroclastic sequences allowed us to apply the relationship derived by numerical simulations and experiments to estimate the mixing time-scales for these two magmatic systems. Results indicate that mixing processes in Astroni 6 and Averno 2 systems lasted for approximately 2 and 9 days, respectively, prior to eruption.     

Earthquake shaking scenarios for the metropolitan area of Lisbon

In this study, we simulate and compare ground motion shaking in the city of Lisbon and surrounding counties (metropolitan area of Lisbon (MAL)), using two possible earthquake models: the onshore source area of Lower Tagus Valley, M5.7 and M4.7 and the offshore source area, Marques de Pombal Fault, M7.6, one of the possible source of the 1755 Lisbon earthquake. The stochastic and a new hybrid stochastic-deterministic approach (DSM) are used in order to evaluate the ground shaking and to characterize its spatial variability. Results are presented in terms of response acceleration spectra (PSA) and peak ground acceleration (PGA) with respect to bedrock and surface. Site effects are evaluated by means of equivalent stochastic non-linear one-dimensional ground responses analysis, performed for a set of stratified soil profile units properly designed to cope with the soil site conditions of MAL region. A sensitive study is carried out using different input parameters and different approaches in order to give the basic information to evaluate the range of uncertainty in seismic scenarios.     

Shakbazian Compact Groups: Mass‐to‐light ratios and mass distribution models: I. ShCG 362 and ShCG 166

We present results of photometric observations under excellent seeing conditions of Shakbazian Compact Groups. We obtained the seeing‐unconvolved surface brightness profiles of individual galaxies in the I band. We also determined the B – I color index for each galaxy, and investigated the presence of cores in the early type galaxies. We constructed models for the mass distribution of the individual galaxies. The mass‐to‐light (𝔐/L) ratios have normal values, and the conclusion that these groups have little dark matter is confirmed. (© 2007 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0–6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.     

Comparison between the indirect approach and kriging with samples of different support for estimation using samples of different length

In this paper we compare two estimation methods to deal with samples of different support: (1) the indirect approach using accumulation and (2) kriging with samples of different support. These two methods were tested in a simple example. The estimates of the two methods were compared against a benchmark scenario. The benchmark consisted of kriging using a complete set of samples on the same support. The effects of the nugget effect, variogram range and type on the weight of long samples, the estimate, and the error variance were assessed. Kriging with samples of different support led to lower error variance and to estimates closer to the estimates of the benchmark scenario. Furthermore, in the case of spatially continuous attributes (low nugget effect), the indirect approach assigns greater weight to long samples than kriging with samples of different support. A cross validation study comparing the two methods with a database from a bauxite deposit was performed. The results of the cross validation study showed that kriging with samples of different support resulted in more precise estimates.     

Estimation of soil water content in watershed using artificial neural networks

Soil water content (SWC) is an important factor in transfer processes between soil and air, contributing to water and energy balances, and quantifying it remains a challenge. This study uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) to analyse spatial and temporal variation of SWC in a Brazilian watershed, based on climate information, soil physical properties and topographic variables. Thirty eight input variables were tested in 200 models. The outputs were compared with 650 gravimetric moisture measurements collected at 26 points (25 field studies). The results show that it is possible to estimate SWC efficiently (Nash-Sutcliffe statistic, NS = 0.77) using topographic data, soil physical properties and rainfall. If only climate information is considered, modelling is less efficient (NS = 0.28). Using many variables does not necessarily improve performance. Alternatively, SWC can be estimated by simplified models using rainfall and topographic maps information, although the performance is less good (NS = 0.65).     

Reconstruction of food conditions for Northeast Atlantic bivalve species based on Dynamic Energy Budgets

Required assimilated energy to support observed growth was reconstructed for four common bivalve species (Mya arenaria, Cerastoderma edule, Mytilus edulis and Macoma balthica) from various Northeast Atlantic coastal areas, along the species distributional range. The approach applied was based on the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) theory whereby observed growth patterns in the field, in combination with prevailing temperatures, were used to reconstruct the average food intake experienced in the field scaled to the maximum possible. For all species, results suggest food limitation over the range of locations. In general, reconstructed food intake indicated better conditions for C. edule compared to the other species, while M. edulis presented the lowest food conditions in all the areas. Despite the indications for a latitudinal trend in primary production, no clear pattern or relationship between reconstructed food conditions and latitude was observed suggesting that any trend may be overruled by local conditions.     

Unravelling the root zone of ultramafic‐hosted black smokers‐like hydrothermalism from an Alpine analog

Mid‐Ocean Ridges host various types of hydrothermal systems including high‐T black‐smokers found in ultramafic rocks exhumed along slow spreading ridges. These systems are mostly described in two dimensions as their exposure on the present‐day seafloor lacks the vertical dimension. One way to understand these systems at depth is to study their fossilized equivalents preserved on‐land. Such observation can be done in the Platta nappe, Switzerland, where a Jurassic‐aged mineralized system is exposed in 3D. Serpentinites host a Cu‐Fe‐Ni‐Co‐Zn‐rich mineralization made of sulphides, magnetite and Fe‐Ca‐silicates either replacing serpentinites or within stockwork. Fe‐Ca‐silicates, abundant at the deepest levels, vanish in the mineralization close to the palaeo‐detachment. Fluids were channelized along mafic dykes and sills acting as preferential drains. Warm carbonation (~130°C) is the latest hydrothermal record. We propose that this system is an analog to the root zone of present‐day serpentinite‐hosted hydrothermal systems such as those found along the Mid‐Atlantic Ridge.