T213L31全球模式云和对流参数化方案改进试验

针对中国业务中期数值预报模式T213对中雨量级以上的降水预报空报比较明显的问题,文中对此模式预报的降水进行了诊断分析。发现T213模式预报的总降水分布主要是由可分辨尺度降水决定的,且在降水偏多最明显的地区,可分辨尺度的降水即超过或达到了观测的总降水,表明降水空报的主要原因在于可分辨尺度降水偏多。可分辨尺度降水偏多的可能原因有：土壤湿度初始化、云变量的初始化和直接产生降水的云与对流参数化方案存在一定的缺陷。鉴于前两者是目前国际上的难点,文中针对第3个方面的可能原因进行了分析和相应的改进。包括在对流方案之前增加一次云方案的调用;对流参数化方案的闭合由“动力型”改为对流有效位能调整闭合;更复杂的对流触发机制;改进冰沉降和降水通量计算。改进的主要目的是使对流参数化方案更活跃,从而减少格点尺度对流的发生。采用改进的方案,进行了敏感性试验和2005年夏季的连续滚动同化预报试验,并与中国区域400个标准站的降水观测和GPCP的全球降水观测进行了比较。结果表明,改进的方案无论是对中国区域还是全球夏季平均的降水分布预报都好于业务,但四川省和赤道东太平洋降水偏多的问题依然存在。中国区域的降水统计检验还表明,除小雨外,其他量级在大部分时效上降水的TS评分增加,预报偏差降低。     

10Be chronology of the last deglaciation of County Donegal, northwestern Ireland

A well-preserved moraine on the northern coast of County Donegal, Ireland, has played a critical role in our understanding of the glacial history of this sector of the Irish Ice Sheet (IIS). Because of a lack of numerical dating of the moraine, however, previous interpretations of its age and significance to the glacial history of this region have varied widely. Here we report eight in situ cosmogenic ¹⁰Be ages on boulders sampled from the moraine. Two of these ages are outliers, with the remaining six ranging from 18.8±1.0 ¹⁰Be kyr to 20.9±1.3 ¹⁰Be kyr, with an uncertainty-weighted mean age of 19.4±0.3 ¹⁰Be kyr (19.4±1.2 kyr accounting for production rate uncertainty). Our results confirm one previous ¹⁰Be age obtained from the moraine, with the combined data ( n =7) constraining the age of initial deglaciation of the IIS from its LGM position on the continental shelf to be 19.3±0.3 ¹⁰Be kyr (19.3±1.2 kyr accounting for production rate uncertainty). These ages are in excellent agreement with calibrated ¹⁴C ages that constrain retreat of the IIS margin from the continental shelf elsewhere in northwestern and western Ireland and the Irish Sea Basin associated with the start of the Cooley Point Interstadial (≥20–≤18.2 cal. kyr BP), suggesting widespread deglaciation of the IIS ∼19.5–20 kyr ago.     

SIMPLE PUSH-OVER ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC BUILDINGS

A simple method for the non-linear static analysis of complex building structures subjected to monotonically increasing horizontal loading (push-over analysis) is presented. The method is designed to be a part of new methodologies for the seismic design and evaluation of structures. It is based on the extension of a pseudo-three-dimensional mathematical model of a building structure into the non-linear range. The structure consists of planar macroelements. For each planar macroelement, a simple bilinear or multilinear base shear–top displacement relationship is assumed. By a step-by-step analysis an approximate relationship between the global base shear and top displacement is computed. During the analysis the development of plastic hinges throughout the building can be monitored. The method has been implemented into a prototype computer program. In the paper the mathematical model, the base shear–top displacement relationships for different types of macroelements, and the step-by-step computational procedure are described. The method has been applied for the analysis of a symmetric and an asymmetric variant of a seven-storey reinforced concrete frame–wall building, as well as for the analysis of a complex asymmetric 21-storey reinforced concrete wall building. The influence of torsion on structural behaviour is discussed. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FRESHWATER ECOSYSTEMS OF THE NEW ENGLAND/MID-ATLANTIC REGION

Numerous freshwater ecosystems, dense concentrations of humans along the eastern seaboard, extensive forests and a history of intensive land use distinguish the New England/Mid-Atlantic Region. Human population densities are forecast to increase in portions of the region at the same time that climate is expected to be changing. Consequently, the effects of humans and climatic change are likely to affect freshwater ecosystems within the region interactively. The general climate, at present, is humid continental, and the region receives abundant precipitation. Climatic projections for a 2 × CO₂ atmosphere, however, suggest warmer and drier conditions for much of this region. Annual temperature increases ranging from 3–5°C are projected, with the greatest increases occurring in autumn or winter. According to a water balance model, the projected increase in temperature will result in greater rates of evaporation and evapotranspiration. This could cause a 21 and 31% reduction in annual stream flow in the southern and northern sections of the region, respectively, with greatest reductions occurring in autumn and winter. The amount and duration of snow cover is also projected to decrease across the region, and summer convective thunderstorms are likely to decrease in frequency but increase in intensity. The dual effects of climate change and direct anthropogenic stress will most likely alter hydrological and biogeochemical processes, and, hence, the floral and faunal communities of the region's freshwater ecosystems. For example, the projected increase in evapotranspiration and evaporation could eliminate most bog ecosystems, and increases in water temperature may increase bioaccumulation, and possibly biomagnification, of organic and inorganic contaminants. Not all change may be adverse. For example, a decrease in runoff may reduce the intensity of ongoing estuarine eutrophication, and acidification of aquatic habitats during the spring snowmelt period may be ameliorated. Recommendations for future monitoring efforts include: (1) extending and improving data on the distribution, abundance and effect of anthropogenic stressors (non-point pollution) within the region; and (2) improving scientific knowledge regarding the contemporary distribution and abundance of aquatic species. Research recommendations include: (1) establishing a research centre(s) where field studies designed to understand interactions between freshwater ecosystems and climate change can be conducted; (2) projecting the future distribution, activities and direct effects of humans within the region; (3) developing mathematical analyses, experimental designs and aquatic indicators that distinguish between climatic and anthropogenic effects on aquatic systems; (4) developing and refining projections of climate variability such that the magnitude, frequency and seasonal timing of extreme events can be forecast; and (5) describing quantitatively the flux of materials (sediments, nutrients, metals) from watersheds characterized by a mosaic of land uses. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Phytoplankton and chlorophyll a relationships with ENSO in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica

The historical data of phytoplankton and chlorophyll a(Chl a)(1990–2002)obtained during the Chinese National Antarctic Research Expedition(CHINARE)in the Prydz Bay have been integrated.The results showed that the temperature,salinity,nutrients,and oxygen of seawater changed when El Nino/La Nina occurred.The variation of biological communities reflected the response of ecosystem to environmental changes.During El Ni?o period,Chl a concentration and phytoplankton community structure changed significantly,and the relative proportion of diatoms increased while dinoflagellates decreased.During La Ni?a period,the proportion of diatoms decreased,but the golden-brown algae and blue-green algae increased significantly.The variation of phytoplankton population directly affected the biodiversity of the bay,which were also quite sensitive to the marine environment changes.Meanwhile,the satellite remote sensing data of 2002–2011(December–March)have been used to study the temporal connection change of Chl a and phytoplankton in the Prydz Bay.We found that there were significant differences in the monthly variation characteristics of satellite remote sensing Chl a and sea surface temperature(SST),which had some links with sea ice melting and El Ni?o/La Ni?a events.We found that the start time of bloom advanced,lagged or synchronized with the changes of the SST,and we also found the occurrence time of phytoplankton bloom corresponded with the sea ice melting inner bay.To some extent,this study will help us understand the relationships between ENSO events and the phytoplankton bloom in the Southern Ocean.     

POTENTIAL CROP PRODUCTION

Stromgaard, Peter: Potential Crop Production—illustrated by an example from West Africa, Geografisk Tidsskrift, 77: 6—12, København, June 1, 1978.

Different ways of describing and modelling the process of primary production are compared, and the concept of potential crop production is elaborated.

Two mathematical models are suggested, converted into FORTRAN IV, and used for an estimation of potential productivity in Ghana.     

A modified binary space partitioning tree for geographic information systems

We present a reactive data structure, that is, a spatial data structure with detail levels. The two properties, spatial organization and detail levels, are the basis for a geographic information system (GIS) with a multi-scale database. A reactive data structure is a novel type of data structure catering to multiple detail levels with rapid responses to spatial queries. It is presented here as a modification of the binary space partitioning tree that includes the levels of detail. This tree is one of the few spatial data structures that does not organize space in a rectangular manner. A prototype system has been implemented. An important result of this implementation is that it shows that binary space partitioning trees of real maps have O(n) storage space complexity in contrast to the theoretical worst case O(n² ), with n the number of line segments in the map.