Modelling uncertainty in natural resource analysis using fuzzy sets and Monte Carlo simulation: slope stability prediction

The techniques of fuzzy logic and Monte Carlo simulation are combined to address two incompatible types of uncertainty present in most natural resource data: thematic classification uncertainty and variance in unclassified continuously distributed data. The resultant model of uncertainty is applied to an infinite slope stability model using data from Louise Island, British Columbia. Results are summarized so as to answer forestry decision support queries. The proposed model of uncertainty in resource data analysis is found to have utility in combining different types of uncertainty, and efficiently utilizing available metadata. Integration of uncertainty data models with visualization tools is considered a necessary prerequisite to effective implementation in decision support systems.     

A SIMULATED ANNEALING APPROACH TO SEISMIC MODEL OPTIMIZATION WITH SPARSE PRIOR INFORMATION1

It is well known that seismic inversion based on local model optimization methods, such as iterative use of linear optimization, may fail when prior information is sparse. Where the seismic events corresponding to reflectors of interest remain to be identified, a global optimization technique is required. We investigate the use of a global, stochastic optimization method, that of simulated annealing, to solve the seismic trace inversion problem, in which the two-way traveltimes and reflection coefficients are to be determined. The simulated annealing method is based on an analogy between the model-algorithm system and a statistical mechanical system. We exploit this analogy to produce improved annealing schedules. It is shown that even in cases of virtually no prior information about two-way traveltimes and reflection coefficients, the method is capable of producing reliable results.     

The Ethics of Place and Environmental Change: Some Examples from the South Pacific

This paper concerns place and ‘placelessness’, and suggests links between those two and types of environmental ethic. An historical analysis of place based ethics and environmental degradation draws on examples from the Pacific basin. Finally, relationships between environmental ethics and traditional patterns of resource exploitation are proposed for several island societies.     

Importance of volcanic glass alteration to sediment stabilization: offshore Japan

A minor amount (ca 1 wt%) of amorphous silica cement sourced from volcanic glass inhibits consolidation of hemipelagic sediment approaching the Nankai Trough subduction zone throughout the Shikoku Basin. The distribution and nature of the cement were examined via secondary and backscattered electron imaging. The amorphous silica occurs as altered material in contact with volcanic glass, coating grains (including grain contacts) and filling pores. Based on chemical and petrographic evidence, the cement is probably sourced from volcanic glass; this is in contrast to a previous suggestion that this silica cement is sourced dominantly from biogenic silica. Amorphous silica sourced from disseminated volcanic glass shards has the ability to form a thin coating on clay‐dominated sediment throughout the Shikoku Basin. Measured amorphous silica content in hemipelagic sediments suggests that the cementing process is active throughout the Shikoku Basin (at sites separated by >500 km). The cementation process may occur in other locations where sediment containing hydrated disseminated volcanic glass is buried sufficiently for heat to facilitate alteration (i.e. Central America, Cascadia and the Gulf of Alaska).     

One-dimensional models of groundwater flow, sediment thermal history and petroleum generation within continental rift basins

We investigate the effects of convective heat transfer on the thermal history of sediments and petroleum formation within continental rift basins using one-dimensional mathematical modelling. The transport equations used in this study to describe vertical groundwater flow and conductive/convective heat transfer are solved by the finite element method. Sediment thermal history is quantitatively represented using first-order rate kinetic expressions for kerogen degradation and an empirical fanning Arrhenius model for apatite fission track annealing. Petroleum generation is also represented in the model by a suite of first-order rate kinetic expressions. The analysis provides insights into how pore fluid circulation patterns are preserved in the rock record as anomalies in palaeogeothermometric data within continental rifts. Parameters varied in the numerical experiments include the ratio of conductive to convective heat transfer (thermal Peclet number; Pe) and the composition of the disseminated organic matter in the sediment (type II and III kerogen). Quantitative results indicate that vertical groundwater flow rates on the order of a mm/yr cause a change in computed vitrinite reflectance of the rocks and a shift in the depth to oil generation by as much as 3000 m. Differences in thermal gradients between recharge and discharge areas (Pe= 0.6) also change the width of the zone of oil generation by a factor of two. Even more dramatic, however, are the large changes in predicted apatite fission track length distributions and model ages between recharge and discharge areas. For example, a sediment package buried to a depth of 2400 m over 200 Myr within the groundwater recharge column had a fission track length distribution with a computed mean and standard deviation of 12.83 μm and 0.77 μm, respectively. The fission track model age for this sediment package was 209 Ma. The same sediment package in the discharge area has a distribution with a mean track length of 5.68 μm, a standard deviation of 3.37 μm, and a fission track model age of 2.6 Ma. Transient groundwater flow simulations, in which fluid circulation ceases after a period of time within the rift basin, are also presented to illustrate how disturbances in palaeogeothermometric parameters are preserved on geological time-scales. Vitrinite reflectance profiles require about 10 Myr to return to conductive conditions within groundwater recharge areas while the convective disturbances are preserved indefinitely along the discharge column, as long as further subsidence does not occur. Ancient groundwater flow systems are preserved as anomalies in computed apatite fission track model ages and distributions much longer after groundwater flow stops, relative to organic-based geothermometers. Significant differences exist in model ages between recharge (145 Ma) and discharge (90 Ma) areas 200 Myr after flow has ceased. However, calculated fission track histogram distributions are virtually identical in recharge and discharge areas after about 50 Myr. Our study suggests that ancient groundwater flow systems can be detected by comparing thermochronometric data between suspected recharge and discharge areas within continental rifts. Vitrinite reflectance profiles, observed offsets in the depth to the onset of petroleum generation, and apatite fission track annealing studies are all well suited for detecting groundwater flow systems which have been relatively long lived (10⁷ years). Apatite fission track age data are probably best suited for identifying ancient groundwater flow systems within rifts long (>200 Myr) after flow ceases.     

Timing of the last deglaciation in Lithuania

Boulders from the Grūda Moraine, which is associated with the maximum extent of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) during the last glaciation, and the Baltija (also referred to as the South Lithuanian), the Middle and North Lithuanian moraines, which are associated with recessional stages of the SIS, were sampled for surface exposure dating using ¹⁰Be. By combining these data with existing radiocarbon ages, we developed a chronology for the retreat of the SIS margin in Lithuania. Our new ¹⁰Be ages suggest that the SIS margin began to retreat from its maximum extent at 18.3 ± 0.8 ¹⁰Be kyr. Based on a probable correlation of the Baltija Moraine with the Pomeranian Moraine in Poland, we infer that the Baltija Moraine was formed following a re-advance of the SIS margin. The ice margin retreated from the Baltija position at 14.0 ± 0.4 ¹⁰Be kyr. The SIS-margin retreat paused at least two more times to form the Middle Lithuanian Moraine at 13.5 ± 0.6 ¹⁰Be kyr and the North Lithuanian Moraine (tentatively correlated to the Pajūris Moraine) at 13.3 ± 0.7 ¹⁰Be kyr. Subsequent ice-margin retreat from the North Lithuanian Moraine represented the final deglaciation of Lithuania. Direct dating of these moraines better constrains the relation of ice-margin positions in Lithuania to those in adjacent countries as well as the SIS response to climate change.     

Tsunami backwash deposits with Chicxulub impact ejecta and dinosaur remains from the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary in the La Popa Basin,Mexico

The La Popa Basin in north‐eastern Mexico features outstanding, continuous three‐dimensional exposures of the Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary event deposit in shallow shelf environments pierced by salt stocks. In the area to the south‐east of the El Papalote diapir, the Cretaceous–Palaeogene deposit consists of two superimposed sedimentary units and erosively overlies upper Maastrichtian sand‐siltstones with soft‐sediment deformation and liquefaction structures. The basal unit 1 is an up to 8 m thick chaotic, carbonate‐rich bed that discontinuously fills incised gutters and channels. Besides abundant silicic and carbonate ejecta spherules from the Chicxulub impact, unit 1 includes large sandstone boulders and abundant shallow‐water debris (for example, mud clasts, algae, bivalve shells, gastropod shells and vertebrate remains). Unit 1 is conformably overlain by unit 2. Distal to the diapir, unit 2 consists of a centimetre to decimetre‐thick conglomeratic, coarse bioclast and spherule‐bearing sandstone bed. Closer to the diapir, unit 2 becomes a metre‐thick series of four to eight conglomeratic to fine‐grained graded sandstone beds rich in shell debris and ejecta spherules. Unit 2 is conformably overlain by structureless to parallel laminated sandstone beds that may mark the return to the pre‐event depositional regime. The sedimentary characteristics of the Cretaceous–Palaeogene deposit, including its erosive base, its sheet‐like geometry, the presence of multiple, graded beds, evidence for upper flow regime conditions and the absence of bioturbation, support an origin by a short‐term multiphase depositional event. The occurrence of soft‐sediment deformation structures (for example, liquefaction) below the Cretaceous–Palaeogene deposit suggests that earthquakes were the first to occur at La Popa. Then, shelf collapse and strong backflow from the first tsunami waves may have triggered erosion and deposition by violent ejecta‐rich hyperconcentrated density flows (unit 1). Subsequently, a series of concentrated density flows resulting from tsunami backwash surges may have deposited the multiple‐graded bedding structures of unit 2. The specific depositional sequence and the Fe‐Mg‐rich as well as Si‐K‐rich composition of the ejecta spherules both provide a critical link to the well‐known deep marine Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary sites in the adjacent Burgos basin in north‐eastern Mexico. Moreover, the pulse‐like input of Chicxulub ejecta material at the base of the event deposit allows for correlation with other Cretaceous–Palaeogene boundary sites in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic, as well as in Central and Northern America. The presence of diverse dinosaur and mosasur bones and teeth in the event deposit is the first observation of such remains together with Chicxulub ejecta material. These findings indicate that dinosaurs lived in the area during the latest Maastrichtian and suggest that the tsunami waves not only eroded deltas and estuaries but the coastal plain as well.     

Mixed Magmas, Mush Chambers and Eruption Triggers: Evidence from Zoned Clinopyroxene Phenocrysts in Andesitic Scoria from the 1995 Eruptions of Ruapehu Volcano, New Zealand

Juvenile ejecta from the September and October 1995 eruptionsof Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, indicate that mixing occurredbetween relatively higher- and lower-temperature (high-T andlow-T) andesitic magmas. Compositional zonations in clinopyroxenephenocrysts provide direct evidence for a pre-eruption crystal–meltmush chamber containing low-T magma, and elucidate the processesof magma mixing and eruption, following the injection of high-Tmagma. Many phenocrysts with Fe-rich cores derived from low-Tmagma have extremely reverse zoned mantles around slightly resorbedcores. Mg-value [100Mg/(Mg + Fe)] increases from 65–70to