面向城市导游的无缝服务研究

智能导游服务已从传统的单一景区导游发展为城市多景区导游,因此,包含了景区间导游和景区内导游两大部分;表现为更加注重面向散客服务、兼容多移动智能终端以应用程序(App)的方式运行。由于景区间导游和景区内导游往往自成系统,在游客进出景区的过程中存在着两种系统的切换,且主要采用手动方式完成,尚没有实现城市多景区导游过程的无缝衔接。为了应对这个挑战,本文设计了一个面向城市多景区的无缝导游服务模式,分析了其架构以及工作机制;并着重讨论了城市无缝导游服务的关键技术,如系统间无缝切换的条件,包含判断游客进入、离开景区等;以及导游服务过程无缝衔接的机制,包含导游动态数据结构的设计,游客游览需求、导游过程状态在多导游系统间的传递等。最后通过实例验证了该方法的有效性,作为新的导游服务模式,同时为动态集成已有的导游App提供了解决方法。     

邵阳地区闪电活动特征及其与降水的关系

利用闪电定位资料和常规观测站24 h的降水资料,对邵阳地区2008-2010年的闪电特征进行分析,并进一步探讨了邵阳地区闪电与降水的关系。结果表明：邵阳地区闪电多以负地闪为主,地闪频次的最大值中心位于东北部,呈东北-西南减少的趋势;地闪频次存在明显的日变化特征,闪电集中发生在13-19时;有闪电时,降水量不超过1 mm和10 mm的降水个例分别为29.63 %,76.30%;无闪电时,其值分别为69.44 %,96.30 %;超过20 mm的降水大多伴随有闪电,无闪电时发生概率极小;地闪频次与闪电对流降水的拟合系数优于其与所有降水的拟合系数,且随着统计尺度的增大,地闪与闪电对流降水的相关性变强。     

1961-2012年夏季南亚高压与云南地区降水的关系

基于1961-2012年NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料和云南地区124个观测站月降水资料,利用相关分析法分析夏季南亚高压与云南地区降水的关系。结果表明：1961-2012年夏季滇西南地区降水与南亚高压主中心经度呈较显著负相关,滇南地区降水与南亚高压面积呈较显著负相关;6月滇西北和滇南地区降水与南亚高压脊线位置、高压主中心纬度呈显著正相关,滇西南地区降水与南亚高压主中心强度呈显著正相关,而与南亚高压主中心经度呈显著负相关,滇中地区降水与南亚高压主中心纬度呈显著正相关;7月滇西南、滇西北的西南部和滇西的北部地区降水与南亚高压脊线位置呈较显著正相关,滇西地区降水与南亚高压主中心强度呈较显著负相关,滇中和滇东地区降水与南亚高压主中心经度呈较显著负相关;8月滇西南、滇中、滇南和滇东地区降水与南亚高压面积呈显著负相关。     

The Soil Moisture and Net Primary Production Affected by CO_2 and Climate Change Using a Coupled Model

In this paper, a coupled model was used to estimate the responses of soil moisture and net primary production of vegetation （NPP） to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. The analysis uses three experiments simulated by the second-generation Earth System Model （CanESM2） of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis （CCCma）, which are part of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5）. The authors focus on the magnitude and evolution of responses in soil moisture and NPP using simulations modeled by CanESM, in which the individual effects of increasing CO2 concentration and climate change and their combined effect are separately accounted for. When considering only the single effect of climate change, the soil moisture and NPP have a linear trend of 0.03 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and-0.14 gC m^- 2 yr^-2, respec- tively. However, such a reduction in the global NPP results from the decrease of NPP at lower latitudes and in the Southern Hemisphere, although increased NPP has been shown in high northern latitudes. The largest negative trend is located in the Amazon basin at -1.79 gC m^-2 yr^-2. For the individual effect of increasing CO2 concentration, both soil moisture and NPP show increases, with an elevated linear trend of 0.02 kg m^-2 yr^-1 and 0.84 gC m^-2 yr^-2, respectively. Most regions show an increasing NPP, except Alaska. For the combined effect of increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, the increased soil moisture and NPP exhibit a linear trend of 0.04 kg m^2 yr^-1 and 0.83 gC m^2 yr^-2 at a global scale. In the Amazon basin, the higher reduction in soil moisture is illustrated by the model, with a linear trend of-0.39 kg m^-2 yr^-1, for the combined effect. Such a change in soil moisture is caused by a weakened Walker circulation simulated by this coupled model, compared with the single effect of increasing CO2 concentration （experiment M2）, and a consequence of the reduction in NPP is also shown in this area, with a linear trend of-     

湖南气候对全球气候变化的响应

利用湖南省96个台站1960—2010年逐日气象观测资料,在进行均一性检验和订正的基础上对湖南省气候变化事实进行检测分析。结果表明:湖南气候与全球气候变化一致,呈现以变暖为主要特征的变化,且变暖存在季节、地域上的差异,冬、春、秋气温变暖趋势显著,增暖幅度最大的区域在湘北地区;对气候变暖响应敏感的要素主要是与平均气温、冬季气温相关密切的要素,如季平均气温、年平均最低气温、活动积温等;湖南气温在突变时间上具有较好的时间逻辑关系;湖南降水量无显著趋势变化,但极端降水增加,地域性差异明显,湖南东部地区降水量呈现明显增加趋势,日降水量大于等于100 mm的日数呈显著增加趋势;湖南日照时数、风速、相对湿度均呈现显著减少的变化趋势。     

基于数值模拟的渤海海域地震海啸危险性定量化研究

根据地震海啸产生的条件,结合渤海海域的地形特征、地质构造、地震学特征和历史地震及海啸记录对渤海海域潜在的地震海啸进行了数值模拟研究。分析了渤海可能引发地震海啸的震源区域,讨论了渤海发生海啸灾害的可能性。文中通过数值模拟再现了渤海历史上几次规模较大的地震事件可能引发的海啸情景,研究分析了可能的地震海啸在渤海及周边海域的传播过程及波动特征.地震海啸传播模型采用基于四叉树原理的自适应网格加密技术,有效解决了局部分辨率与计算效率之间的矛盾。数值计算包括地震海啸产生及传播过程。利用该模型对渤海潜在的地震海啸进行了数值计算,基于数值计算结果定量阐述了渤海海域潜在地震海啸对渤海局部岸段及北黄海沿岸的影响,给出了渤海可能地震海啸危险性划分;研究结果将为我国海啸危险性分析和海啸预警技术研究工作提供技术支持。     

基于随机集合的非传统型有效波极值模型

The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.     

西南印度洋深海热液硫化物区沉积物微生物群落结构和固氮基因多样性

A sediment sample was collected from a deep-sea hydrothermal vent field located at a depth of 2 951 m on the Southwest Indian Ridge. Phylogenetic analyses were performed on the prokaryotic community using polymerase chain reaction（PCR） amplification of the 16 S rRNA and nifH genes. Within the Archaea, the dominant clones were from marine benthic group E（MBGE） and marine group I（MGI） belonging to the phyla Euryarchaeota and Thaumarchaeota, respectively. More than half of the bacterial clones belonged to the Proteobacteria, and most fell within the Gammaproteobacteria. No epsilonproteobacterial sequence was observed. Additional phyla were detected including the Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Planctomycetes, Acidobacteria, Nitrospirae, Chloroflexi, Chlorobi, Chlamydiae, Verrucomicrobia, and candidate divisions OD1, OP11, WS3 and TM6, confirming their existence in hydrothermal vent environments. The detection of nifH gene suggests that biological nitrogen fixation may occur in the hydrothermal vent field of the Southwest Indian Ridge. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that only Clusters I and III NifH were present. This is consistent with the phylogenetic analysis of the microbial 16 S rRNA genes, indicating that Bacteria play the main role in nitrogen fixation in this hydrothermal vent environment.     

渤海莱州湾地区晚更新世以来有孔虫特征反映的古环境变化

Controlled by climate changes, there were three large-scale transgressions and regressions around the Bohai Sea during the late Quaternary, which were accepted by most geologists. However, a big controversy still exists about the time when the transgressions occurred separately. In order to find out the process of the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary, the foraminifera assemblages from a new borehole Lz908 in the southern coast of the Laizhou Bay were studied, and then the transgressive strata were indentified. Combined with accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon 14C（AMS14C） and optically stimulated luminescence（OSL） ages, the occurrence time of these transgressions were re-determined. The result showed that three major large-scale transgressions occurred separately at the beginning of marine isotopic stage 7（MIS7）, the last interglacial period（MIS5） and the Holocene. In addition, a small-scale transgression occurred in the mid-MIS6, and the corresponding transgressive stratum was deposited. The transgressive deposition of MIS3 was also discovered in this study. However, the characteristics of the foraminifera indicated the environment during this period was colder than that in the MIS5. By comparison with the global sea-level changes, the paleoenvironmental changes around the Bohai Sea in the late Quaternary can be consistent with the global climate changes.     

桑沟湾及附近海域表层沉积物碳氮同位素分析及有机质来源

Naturally existing stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes are important in the study of sedimentary organic matter sources. To identify the sources of sedimentary organic matter in Sanggou Bay and its adjacent areas, which is characterized by high-density shellfish and seaweed aquaculture, the grain size, organic carbon(OC), total nitrogen(TN), carbon and nitrogen isotopic composition(δ13C and δ15N) of organic matter in the surface sediment were determined. The results showed that, in August, sedimentary OC and TN ranged from 0.17% to 0.76% and 0.04% to 0.14%, respectively. In November, OC and TN ranged from 0.23% to 0.87% and 0.05% to 0.14%, respectively. There was a significant positive correlation between OC and TN(R=0.98, P0.0001), indicating that OC and TN were homologous. In August, the δ13C and δ15N of organic matter varied from-23.06‰ to-21.59‰ and 5.10‰ to 6.31‰, respectively. In November, δ13C and δ15N ranged from-22.87‰ to-21.34‰ and 5.13‰ to 7.31‰, respectively. This study found that the major sources of sedimentary organic matter were marine shellfish biodeposition, seaweed farming, and soil organic matter. Using a three-end-member mixed model, we estimated that the dominant source of sedimentary organic matter was shellfish biodeposition, with an average contribution rate of 65.53% in August and 43.00% in November. Thus, shellfish farming had a significant influence on the coastal carbon cycle.