Climate change: a profile of US climate scientists’ perspectives

Climate scientists have played a significant role in investigating global climate change. In the USA, a debate has swirled about whether a consensus on climate change exists among reputable scientists and this has entered the policy process. In order to better understand the views of US climate scientists, we conducted an empirical survey of US climate scientists (N?=?468) in 2005, and compared the results with the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science report and policy summaries. Our results reveal that survey respondents generally agree about the nature, causes, and consequences of climate change, and are in agreement with IPCC findings. We also found that there is strong support for a variety of policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.     

Adaptation of agriculture to climate change

Preparing agriculture for adaptation to climate change requires advance knowledge of how climate will change and when. The direct physical and biological impacts on plants and animals must be understood. The indirect impacts on agriculture's resource base of soils, water and genetic resources must also be known. We lack such information now and will, likely, for some time to come. Thus impact assessments for agriculture can only be conjectural at this time. How-ever, guidance can be gotten from an improved understanding of current climatic vulnerabilities of agriculture and its resource base, from application of a realistic range of climate change scenarios to impact assessment, and from consideration of the complexity of current agricultural systems and the range of adaptation techniques and policies now available and likely to be available in the future.     

The stability of transition metal dolomites in carbonate systems: a discussion

The instability of transition metal dolomites [CaR²⁺(CO₃)₂ where R²⁺ is Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, or Zn] and the limited substitution of transition metal cations for Mg in the dolomite structure can be accounted for by the effect of octahedral distortion. For example, trigonal elongation of the Fe octahedron, due to the Jahn-Teller effect, observed in siderite and ankerite, results in elongation of the Ca octahedron which is sensitive to distortion because the radius of Ca²⁺ is close to the upper limit for octahedral coordination. Co, Ni, Cu, Zn octahedra are also thought to be deformed, relative to Mg octahedra, in carbonates.The free energy of formation (ΔG^o_f) of R²⁺CO₃ becomes more positive with increasing octahedral distortion. Estimated ΔG^o_f(dolomite) as well as stabilities and solubility limits of R²⁺ in natural and synthetic dolomites suggest a series in order of decreasing stability: Mg >Mn >Zn >Fe >Co >Ni >Cu.ΔG^o_f(est.) for the terminal Fe-dolomite solid solution [72 mol% CaFe(CO₃)₂] in the system CaCO₃-MgCO₃-FeCO₃ may represent an empirical threshold value for dolomite stability which lies between ΔG^o_f for Mn- and Zn-dolomites. While Zn-dolomite is probably not a stable phase, very extensive solid solution toward CaZn(CO₃)₂ is to be expected in the system CaCO₃-MgCO₃-ZnCO₃. The tendency for transition metal dolomites to contain excess CaCO₃ can also be accounted for in terms of octahedral distortion and AG^o_f.     

HFSiF4 ratios in volcanic and magmatic gases

The possible importance of SiF₄ in volcanic and magmatic gases has been neglected due to the convention of reporting analyses and basing calculations on the presence of HF. Calculated $\text{HF}\text{SiF}{}_4$ ratios for natural gas compositions serve to justify this convention by showing that SiF₄ is not a significant F-bearing molecular species at high temperatures.     

Paper 1. the mink methodology: background and baseline

A four step methodology has been developed for study of the regional impacts of climate change and the possible responses thereto. First the region's climate sensitive sectors and total economy are described (Task A, current baseline). Next a scenario of climate change is imposed on the current baseline (Task B, current baseline with climate change). A new baseline describing the climate sensitive sectors and total regional economy is projected for some time in the future (Task C, future baseline, year 2030) in the absence of climate change. Finally, the climate change scenario is reimposed on the future baseline (Task D, future baseline with climate change). Impacts of the climate change scenario on the current and future regional economies are determined by means of simulation models and other appropriate techniques. These techniques are also used to assess the impacts of an elevated CO₂ concentration (450 ppm) and of various forms of adjustments and adaptations. The region chosen for the first test of the methodology is composed of the four U.S. states of Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas. The climate change scenario is the actual weather of the 1930s decade in the MINK region. ‘Current’ climate is the actual weather of the period 1951–1980.     

Conclusions,remaining issues,and next steps

The workshop focused on methodologies to assess the impacts of climate change on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their socioeconomic consequences. It did not deal in any detail with the other components (i.e., models designed to estimate changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or in climatic factors) of an integrated assessment shown in Figure 2 of the introduction. This final chapter discusses some of the issues addressed during the San Diego workshop and highlights a few of the major findings of the papers. Issues discussed below include limitations of past modeling efforts and impediments to developing better models of the impacts of climate change on forest, grassland, and water resources; suggestions for future research both to develop better data and models and to employ existing data and modeling capabilities to improve the usefulness of climate impact assessments for policy purposes; and the need for developing a common assessment framework.The views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of their institutions or the other participants in the February 28 to March 3, 1993 workshop held in San Diego, California.     

Growth rhythms,evolution of the Earth's interior,and origin of the Metazoa

Growth patterns preserved in the accretionary skeletons of fossils provide the only known method of directly measuring the rate of the Earth's rotation in the distant past. From seasonal and tidal growth patterns of fossils, one can determine the number of days per year and per month, respectively, in the distant past. Together, these values can be used to distinguish the effects of moment of inertia changes on the length of day from those of tidal friction. When the Metazoan accretionary skeleton originated in the Late Precambrian-Cambrian, the length of day determined from fossils was approximately 19 hr. This value requires that density differentiation of the Earth was essentially complete well the end of the Precambrian. The growing length of day, as well as prior differentiation of oxygenated outer layers (atmosphere, hydrosphere, and crust) from the Earth's dense layers within, were prerequisites for the origin of the Metazoa. Circadia (=approximatelly 24 hr) rhythms in living Metazoa do not readily adapt to environemtal cycles less than about 19hr. Prokaryotes generally lack circadian rhythms because their generation times are less than a day; prokaryotes were well-adapted to Precambrian days less than 19 hr duration, as well as to oxygen-poor environments. As the length of day increased to 19 hr or more during the Late Precambrian, eukaryotes with life spans substantially longer than a day (and consequently with an ability to postpone energyusage beyond a day) evolved. During the Phanerozoic, moment of inertia changes were relatively small, so that lunar tidal friction became the most important cause of changing length of day. However, some researchers believe that even the former may have left an imprint on fossil growth patterns. This conclusion is difficult to confirm, given the uncertainties of growth pattern analyses. But facies-by-facies comparisons of growth patterns can help reduce this uncertainty: presumed tidal growth patterns should change systematically with depth of habitat, for example. Preliminary analyses for Late Ordovician brachiopods from Indiana suggest that this approach will be productive, and may help evaluate the suggestion that the Late Ordovician-Silurian was a time of unusual evolution of the Earth's moment of inertia during the Phanerozoic.