Framework for integrated assessments of global warming impacts

This paper provides a framework for integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and sets the stage for papers that follow in this volume. Integrated assessments are used to organize large quantities of technical information bearing on complex issues (environmental and others) in ways that facilitate application of the information in decision making and policy setting. Any integrated assessment must be based on the best available information. For that reason this paper includes a ‘primer’ on the current (and presumably best available) understanding of the science underlying climatic change. The remainder of the paper describes the component parts of one possible framework for integrated assessment.     

Paper 2. agricultural impacts of and responses to climate change in the Missouri-Iowa-Nebraska-Kansas (MINK) region

The climate of the 1930s was used as an analog of the climate that might occur in Missouri, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas (the MINK region) as a consequence of global warming. The analog climate was imposed on the agriculture of the region under technological and economic conditions prevailing in 1984/87 and again under a scenario of conditions that might prevail in 2030. The EPIC model of Williamset al. (1984), modified to allow consideration of the yield enhancing effects of CO₂ enrichment, was used to evaluate the impacts of the analog climate on the productivity and water use of some 50 representative farm enterprises. Before farm level adjustments and adaptations to the changed climate, and absent CO₂ enrichment (from 350 to 450 ppm), production of corn, sorghum and soybeans was depressed by the analog climate in about the same percent under both current and 2030 conditions. Production of dryland wheat was unaffected. Irrigated wheat production actually increased. Farm level adjustments using low-cost currently available technologies, combined with CO₂ enrichment, eliminated about 80% of the negative impact of the analog climate on 1984/87 baseline crop production. The same farm level adjustments, plus new technologies developed in response to the analog climate, when combined with CO₂ enrichment, converted the negative impact on 2030 crop production to a small increase. The analog climate would have little direct effect on animal production in MINK. The effect, if any, would be by way of the impact on production of feed-grains and soybeans. Since this impact would be small after on-farm adjustments and CO₂ enrichment, animal production in MINK would be little affected by the analog climate.     

Possible Impacts of Global Warming on the Hydrology of the Ogallala Aquifer Region

The Ogallala or High Plains aquifer provides water for about 20% of the irrigated land in the United States. About 20 km³ (16.6 million acre-feet) of water are withdrawn annually from this aquifer. In general, recharge has not compensated for withdrawals since major irrigation development began in this region in the 1940s. The mining of the Ogallala has been pictured as an analogue to climate change in that many GCMs predict a warmer and drier future for this region. In this paper we attempt to anticipate the possible impacts of climate change on the sustainability of the aquifer as a source of water for irrigation and other purposes in the region. We have applied HUMUS, the Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S. to the Missouri and Arkansas-White-Red water resource regions that overlie the Ogallala. We have imposed three general circulation model (GISS, UKTR and BMRC) projections of future climate change on this region and simulated the changes that may be induced in water yields (runoff plus lateral flow) and ground water recharge. Each GCM was applied to HUMUS at three levels of global mean temperature (GMT) to represent increasing severity of climate change (a surrogate for time). HUMUS was also run at three levels of atmospheric CO₂ concentration (hereafter denoted by [CO₂]) in order to estimate the impacts of direct CO₂ effects on photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. Since the UKTR and GISS GCMs project increased precipitation in the Missouri basin, water yields increase there. The BMRC GCM predicts sharply decreased precipitation and, hence, reduced water yields. Precipitation reductions are even greater in the Arkansas basin under BMRC as are the consequent water yield losses. GISS and UKTR climates lead to only moderate yield losses in the Arkansas. CO₂-fertilization reverses these losses and yields increase slightly. CO₂ fertilization increases recharge in the base (no climate change) case in both basins. Recharge is reduced under all three GCMs and severities of climate change.     

The luminosity function of the cluster Palomar 1—testing a new technique

The luminosity function of the globular cluster Palomar 1 is determined together with its confidence interval by applying an adaptive kernel estimator to data from the Isaac Newton Telescope. The luminosity function of Palomar 1 has two minima in the V band and one in the I band. The cluster core contains a relatively high fraction of bright stars, indicative of mass segregation.     

Further evidence of abrupt Holocene drowning of the Black Sea shelf

A 1999 survey of the Black Sea continental shelf off the north central Turkish seaport of Sinop using a side-scan sonar, small remotely operated vehicles, and a series of dredge lowerings located, inspected and sampled an exposed high-energy paleoshoreline at a depth of 155 m. Radiocarbon dating of mollusk shells collected from this ancient beach revealed that the marine flooding of the Black Sea took place between 7460 and 6820 yr B.P. (all ages are reported in radiocarbon years, not calendar years, without correction for reservoir age or dendro-calibration) changing it from a lacustrine to marine environment. This relic surface remained in contact with the bottom waters of the Black Sea for a long period of time before being draped by a thin layer of sapropel mud. Wood samples recovered from this same location were very well preserved and yielded dates as old as 3580 yr B.P.     

U.S. Agriculture and Climate Change: New Results

We examined the impacts on U.S. agriculture of transient climate change assimulated by 2 global general circulation models focusing on the decades ofthe 2030s and 2090s. We examined historical shifts in the location of cropsand trends in the variability of U.S. average crop yields, finding thatnon-climatic forces have likely dominated the north and westward movement ofcrops and the trends in yield variability. For the simulated future climateswe considered impacts on crops, grazing and pasture, livestock, pesticide use,irrigation water supply and demand, and the sensitivity to international tradeassumptions, finding that the aggregate of these effects were positive for theU.S. consumer but negative, due to declining crop prices, for producers. Weexamined the effects of potential changes in El Niño/SouthernOscillation (ENSO) and impacts on yield variability of changes in mean climateconditions. Increased losses occurred with ENSO intensity and frequencyincreases that could not be completely offset even if the events could beperfectly forecasted. Effects on yield variability of changes in meantemperatures were mixed. We also considered case study interactions ofclimate, agriculture, and the environment focusing on climate effects onnutrient loading to the Chesapeake Bay and groundwater depletion of theEdward's Aquifer that provides water for municipalities and agriculture to theSan Antonio, Texas area. While only case studies, these results suggestenvironmental targets such as pumping limits and changes in farm practices tolimit nutrient run-off would need to be tightened if current environmentalgoals were to be achieved under the climate scenarios we examined     

Research and Application of In‐seam Seismic Survey Technology for Disaster‐causing Potential Geology Anomalous Body in Coal Seam

In order to effectively detect potential geology anomalous bodies in coal bearing formation, such as coal seam thickness variation, small faults, goafs and collapse columns, and provide scientific guidance for safe and efficient mining, the SUMMIT-II EX explosion-proof seismic slot wave instrument, produced by German DMT Company, was used to detect the underground channel wave with the help of transmission method, reflection method and transflective method. Region area detection experiment in mi...     

Vertical Hydraulic Gradient Estimation in Clay Till,Using MiHPT Advanced Direct-Push Technology

The vertical transport of contaminants from source areas is employed in many risk assessment models and screening tools in order to estimate the contaminant mass discharge (CMD) into underlying aquifers. The key parameters for estimating CMD are the contaminant source area and concentration, and the vertical water flux, the latter of which depends on the vertical hydraulic conductivity and the vertical hydraulic gradient in the subsurface. This study focuses on advancing the use of the combined membrane interface probe hydraulic profiling tool (MiHPT) to investigate the vertical hydraulic gradient across a clay till overlying a sandy aquifer at a contaminated site in Denmark. Only the HPT is necessary for the estimate of vertical hydraulic gradient. The hydraulic head, clay till thickness, and resulting vertical hydraulic gradients found using the MiHPT compared well with observations from nearby nested wells. The parameter with the largest discrepancy was the thickness of the clay till. The advantage of the MiHPT is its relatively quick depth discrete access to information regarding subsurface permeability, vertical hydraulic gradients and contaminant distribution across a site. In this case study, performance of additional dissipationtests during the HPT log to acquire determination of the vertical hydraulic gradient increased the cost by 3% compared to standard HPT logs.     

Estimating displacement along the Brenner Fault and orogen-parallel extension in the Eastern Alps

The major structure accommodating orogen-parallel extension in the Eastern Alps is inferred to be the Brenner Fault, which forms the western boundary of the Tauern Window. The estimated amount of extension along this fault varies from a minimum of 10–20 km to a maximum of >70 km. All investigations that have attempted to constrain this amount of extension have calculated the fault plane parallel displacement required to restore the difference in structural level between footwall and hanging wall as constrained by geobarometry. However, these calculations neglected the component of exhumation of the footwall resulting from folding and erosion. Therefore, the total amount of extensional displacement was systematically overestimated. In the present study, we project a tectonic marker surface from the footwall and hanging wall of the Brenner Fault onto a N–S-striking cross section. This marker surface, which is the base of the Patscherkofel unit in the footwall and the base of the Ötztal basement in the hanging wall, is inferred to have occupied the same structural level in the hanging wall and footwall of the Brenner Fault before its activity. Therefore, the difference in height between the marker projected from the footwall and from the hanging wall is a measure of the vertical offset across the Brenner Fault. This construction shows that the vertical offset of the marker horizon on both sides of the Brenner Fault varies strongly and continuously along strike of the Brenner Fault, attaining a maximum value of 15 km at the hinge of the folded footwall (Tauern Dome). The along-strike change of vertical offset is explained by large-scale upright folding of the footwall that did not affect the hanging wall of the Brenner Fault. Therefore, the difference in vertical offset of 10 km between the area of the Brenner Pass and the area immediately south of Innsbruck corresponds to the shortening (upright folding) component of exhumation of the footwall. The remaining 5 km of vertical offset must be attributed to extensional deformation. The Brenner Fault itself is barely folded, its dip varies between 20 and 70°, and it crosscuts the upright folds of the western Tauern Window. Given the offset of 5 km, the dip of the fault constrains the extensional displacement to be between 2 and 14 km. We conclude that the Tauern Window was exhumed primarily by folding and erosion, not by extensional unroofing.     

Comparing health status and access to health care in Canada’s largest metropolitan areas

Research has shown persistent inequalities in access to health care between and within sociodemographic groups and geographic areas. Yet much of what we know about geographical disparities in access comes from studies of regional and urban/rural contrasts, or from studies of intra-urban, neighborhood-level variations. We know relatively little about variations in access to primary health care across different urban areas, and whether such variations translate into differences among residents’ health. This study examines how health status and access to primary care vary across five of Canada’s largest cities, paying particular attention to populations that may be particularly vulnerable based on age and income. Across all outcomes, there was a consistently strong relationship with individual socioeconomic status. We show that city of residence is important for access to health care but not for health status. Results are discussed in terms of their relevance for urban health-care policy and delivery, and impacts on health and access to care.