Assessment of the statistical significance of global changes in the annual river runoff in XXI century due to possible anthropogenic warming of climate

A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible.     

A statistical approach to evaluating distance metrics and analog assignments for pollen records

The modern analog technique typically uses a distance metric to determine the dissimilarity between fossil and modern biological assemblages. Despite this quantitative approach, interpretation of distance metrics is usually qualitative and rules for selection of analogs tend to be ad hoc. We present a statistical tool, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, which provides a framework for identifying analogs from distance metrics. If modern assemblages are placed into groups (e.g., biomes), this method can (1) evaluate the ability of different distance metrics to distinguish among groups, (2) objectively identify thresholds of the distance metric for determining analogs, and (3) compute a likelihood ratio and a Bayesian probability that a modern group is an analog for an unknown (fossil) assemblage. Applied to a set of 1689 modern pollen assemblages from eastern North America classified into eight biomes, ROC analysis confirmed that the squared-chord distance (SCD) outperforms most other distance metrics. The optimal threshold increased when more dissimilar biomes were compared. The probability of an analog vs no-analog result (a likelihood ratio) increased sharply when SCD decreased below the optimal threshold, indicating a nonlinear relationship between SCD and the probability of analog. Probabilities of analog computed for a postglacial pollen record at Tannersville Bog (Pennsylvania, USA) identified transitions between biomes and periods of no analog.     

Nitrate dynamics in a rural headwater catchment: measurements and modelling

This study was designed to improve our understanding of, and mechanistically simulate, nitrate (NO₃) dynamics in a steep 9.8 ha rural headwater catchment, including its production in soil and delivery to a stream via surface and subsurface processes. A two‐dimensional modelling approach was evaluated for (1) integrating these processes at a hillslope scale annually and within storms, (2) estimating denitrification, and (3) running virtual experiments to generate insights and hypotheses about using trees in streamside management zones (SMZs) to mitigate NO₃ delivery to streams. Total flow was mathematically separated into quick‐ and slow‐flow components; the latter was routed through the HYDRUS software with a nitrogen module designed for constructed wetlands. Flow was monitored for two years. High surface‐soil NO₃ concentrations started to be delivered to the stream via preferential subsurface flow within two days of the storm commencing. Groundwater NO₃‐N concentrations decreased from 1.0 to less than 0.1 mg l^?1 from up‐slope to down‐slope water tables, respectively, which was attributed to denitrification. Measurements were consistent with the flushing of NO₃ mainly laterally from surface soil during and following each storm. The model accurately accounted for NO₃ turnover, leading to the hypotheses that denitrification was a minor flux (<3 kg N ha^?1) compared to uptake (98^?127 kg N ha^?1), and that SMZ trees would reduce denitrification if they lowered the water table. This research provides an example of the measurement and modelling of NO₃ dynamics at a small‐catchment scale with high spatial and temporal resolution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Potential environmental issues of CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers: Geochemical results from the Frio-I Brine Pilot test,Texas, USA

Sedimentary basins in general, and deep saline aquifers in particular, are being investigated as possible repositories for large volumes of anthropogenic CO₂ that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes. To investigate the potential for the long-term storage of CO₂ in such aquifers, 1600 t of CO₂ were injected at 1500 m depth into a 24-m-thick “C” sandstone unit of the Frio Formation, a regional aquifer in the US Gulf Coast. Fluid samples obtained before CO₂ injection from the injection well and an observation well 30 m updip showed a Na–Ca–Cl type brine with ∼93,000 mg/L TDS at saturation with CH₄ at reservoir conditions; gas analyses showed that CH₄ comprised ∼95% of dissolved gas, but CO₂ was low at 0.3%. Following CO₂ breakthrough, 51 h after injection, samples showed sharp drops in pH (6.5–5.7), pronounced increases in alkalinity (100–3000 mg/L as HCO₃) and in Fe (30–1100 mg/L), a slug of very high DOC values, and significant shifts in the isotopic compositions of H₂O, DIC, and CH₄. These data, coupled with geochemical modeling, indicate corrosion of pipe and well casing as well as rapid dissolution of minerals, especially calcite and iron oxyhydroxides, both caused by lowered pH (initially ∼3.0 at subsurface conditions) of the brine in contact with supercritical CO₂.     

Global climate changes and moisture conditions in the intracontinental arid zones

In order to estimate a transient response of the local hydrological cycle and vegetation cover in the African monsoon area to global climate changes, a simple two-dimensional water vapor transport model coupled with a carbon cycle model for the soil was used. The key difference from other models is that we take into account a positive feedback between the precipitation and development of the vegetation root system in the underlying surface. As our calculation shows, this feedback is responsible for a long-term transient response of local hydrological cycles to the global temperature changes. In the case of a four component vegetation system - tropical forests, savannah, semi desert and desert, (and 2 °C ocean surface water warming), a new steady-state is reached in about 1500 years.In previous works of other authors, the increase of summer precipitations during Holocene or Last Interglacial could be explained only as a result of the surface temperature increase in the intracontinental parts of Africa. However, from paleodata indicates, the temperature in the intracontinental regions of Africa rather decreased during warm epochs of geological past: Holocene optimum, Last Interglacial and middle Pliocene climatic optimum. Our simple model simulations agree with both paleoprecipitation and paleotemperature data.     

Solitary wave generation dynamics at Luzon Strait

A high resolution modeling study is undertaken, with a 2.5-dimensional nonhydrostatic model, of the generation of internal waves induced by tidal motion over the ridges in Luzon Strait. The model is forced by the barotropic tidal components K1, M2, and O1. These tidal components, along with the initial density field, were extracted from data and models. As the barotropic tide moves over the Luzon Strait sills, there is a conversion of barotropic tidal energy into baroclinic tidal energy. Depressions are generated that propagate towards the Asian Seas International Acoustics Experiment (ASIAEX) test site on the Chinese continental shelf. Nonlinear effects steepen the depressions, frequency and amplitude dispersion set in, and disintegration into large amplitude solitary waves occurs. The effects of varying the initial density field, tidal component magnitudes, as well as adding a steady background current to represent the occasional excursions of the Kuroshio Current into the strait, are considered.Depressions are generated at each of the two sills in Luzon Strait which radiate away, steepening and evolving into internal solitary wave trains. Baroclinic fluxes of available potential energy, kinetic energy and linear are calculated for various parameter combinations. The solitary wave trains produced in the simulations generally consist of large amplitude wave trains alternating with small amplitude wave trains. During strong tidal flow, Kelvin–Helmholtz type instabilities can develop over the taller double-humped sill. The solitary waves propagating towards the ASIAEX test site have been observed to reach amplitudes of 120–250 m, depending on the tidal strength. ASIAEX observations indicate amplitudes up to 150 m and the Windy Island Experiment (WISE) measurements contain magnitudes over 200 m. The model results yield solitary wave amplitudes of 70–300 m and half widths of 0.60–3.25 km, depending on parameter values. These are in the range of observations. Measurements by Klymak et al. (2006), in the South China Sea, exhibit amplitudes of 170 m, half widths of 3 km and phase speeds of 2.9 m s^?1. Model predictions indicate that the solitary waves making up the wave packet each experience different background currents with strong near surface shear.The energy in the leading soliton of the large amplitude wave trains ranges between 1.8 and 9.0 GJ m^?1. The smaller value, produced using barotropic tidal currents based on the Oregon State University data base, is the same as the energy estimated to be in a solitary wave observed by Klymak et al. (2006). Estimates of the conversion of barotropic tidal energy into radiating internal wave energy yield conversion rates ranging between 3.6% and 8.3%.     

The theory of spontaneous emission by electrons during their motion along the quantizing magnetic field of a star

The quantum motion of non-relativistic and relativistic electrons in the presence of constant magnetic fields at the surfaces of magnetic stars, magnetic white dwarfs, and pulsars is considered. The quantizing magnetic-field strengths for charged particles with specified energies are determined. The quantum motion of these particles in a plane perpendicular to the magnetic field is accompanied by spontaneous radiation due to electron transitions from higher to lower discrete energy levels, right down to the ground state. In the non-relativistic case, this emission is monochromatic. In the non-relativistic case, various frequencies are emitted, but lie within an order of magnitude of each other. The electron kinetic energy along the magnetic field varies from zero to a maximum value, due to the one-dimensional character of the motion along the field, between each pair of potential barriers corresponding to the discrete energy levels. The results may be relevant to describing gamma-ray flares of pulsars.     

Searches for very high energy gamma rays from blazars with CANGAROO-III telescope in 2005-2009

We have searched for very high energy (VHE) gamma rays from four blazars using the CANGAROO-III imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope. We report the results of the observations of H 2356-309, PKS 2155-304, PKS 0537-441, and 3C 279, performed from 2005 to 2009, applying a new analysis to suppress the effects of the position dependence of Cherenkov images in the field of view. No significant VHE gamma ray emission was detected from any of the four blazars. The GeV gamma-ray spectra of these objects were obtained by analyzing Fermi/LAT archival data. Wide range (radio to VHE gamma-ray bands) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) including CANGAROO-III upper limits, GeV gamma-ray spectra, and archival data, even though they are non-simultaneous, are discussed using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model in combination with a external Compton (EC) radiation. The HBLs (H 2356-309 and PKS 2155-304) can be explained by a simple SSC model, and PKS 0537-441 and 3C 279 are well modeled by a combination of SSC and EC model. We find a consistency with the blazar sequence in terms of strength of magnetic field and component size.