New lessons for technology policy and climate change: investment for innovation

The direction of UK energy policy requires a renewed impetus if the goal of climate change stabilization is to be met. Cost is not the main issue: a transformation to a low-carbon energy system may be no more expensive than meeting future energy demands with fossil fuels. Institutional barriers are preventing the large-scale adoption of the necessary technologies. New institutions to promote low-carbon technologies have not yet led to investment on the necessary scale. Further changes to the operation of the UK electricity markets to create a ‘level playing field’ for small-scale and intermittent generation are necessary. UK policy can contribute to international agreements following on from the Kyoto Accord, which also need to address the institutional barriers to energy technology development and transfer.     

Applying the bootstrap technique for studying soil redistribution by caesium-137 measurements at basin scale

Abstract

The use of the bootstrap technique to estimate the reference level of¹³⁷ Cs in an uneroded site is tested. The analysis is developed using ¹³⁷Cs measurements made in a small experimental Sicilian basin. In the reference area the ¹³⁷Cs activity is normally distributed with a known sample mean value, m equal to 94.4 mBq cm^?2. The influence of¹³⁷ Cs reference site sampling was determined generating samples having a fixed size, N and six different values of the sample coefficient of variation, CV, by a Monte Carlo technique. Then, for each size N, the probability distribution of the mean μ of the sequences generated by Monte Carlo technique is defined. The soil redistribution is determined, both at morphological unit and basin scale, using the proportional method of Martz & de Jong for calculating the net soil loss. The analysis showed that the spatial distribution of the net soil loss E _i, and the basin value E _b are independent of the sample size, N, and the coefficient of variation, CV, of the samples drawn from the reference area, if the bootstrap technique is applied for estimating the mean μ(μ) to use as reference value. The soil redistribution is also examined using as reference value the quantiles μ2.5, μ25, μ75, μ97.5 corresponding to a frequency F(μ) equal to 2.5, 25, 75 and 97.5%, respectively. In conclusion, the analysis established that a robust estimate of the reference value can be obtained even in fields where a small number of samples was drawn (high CV of the ¹³⁷Cs activity of the field samples), using the bootstrap technique for generating sequences of reference values having known mean value m (the mean value of the ¹³⁷Cs activity of the drawn field samples) and large sample size (N = 50).     

Relationship between the yearly maxima of peak and daily discharge for some basins in Tuscany

ABSTRACT

The paper deals with the estimation of the probability distribution of the yearly maximum of the peak discharge Q by means of the distribution of the maximum of the daily discharge q and the distribution of the ratio R = Q/q. The study was carried out for some catchments in Tuscany, analysing the dependence of the parameters of R on the geomorphic catchment parameters. The values of the discharge Q, relevant to an assigned return period, obtained by the methods given herein agree rather well (the error is about 20%) with those directly obtained from the observed values of Q.     

Exposure age dating and Equilibrium Line Altitude reconstruction of an Egesen moraine in the Maritime Alps, Italy

Four boulder samples from the Piano del Praiet frontal moraine in the Gesso della Barra Valley (Maritime Alps) have been ¹⁰Be dated. The results give a weighted mean age of 11 340±370 (870) yr, constraining the frontal moraine to the Egesen glacial stadial, during the Younger Dryas cold phase. By applying the same ¹⁰Be production rate to other Egesen moraines previously dated in the Alps, we obtain similar ages for all of them. This suggests a synchroneity of the Egesen deglaciation in the European Alps at the end of the Younger Dryas. From the palaeoshape of the Egesen glacier, reconstructed by means of geomorphological mapping, an Equilibrium Line Altitude depression (δELA) of −520 to −530 m, with respect to the present-day ELA, and of −260 to −320 m, with respect to the Little Ice Age ELA, has been calculated. Comparison with other Alpine sector δELAs indicates that the Maritime Alps experienced humid climatic conditions during the Younger Dryas.     

Multistage dolomitization and distribution of dolomitized bodies in Early Jurassic carbonate platforms (Southern Alps,Italy)

The Early Jurassic dolomitized carbonates are a hydrocarbon exploration target in Northern Italy. Of these carbonates, the Liassic Albenza Formation platform and the overlying Sedrina Formation shelf were studied to define a pervasive dolomitization model and to shed light on dolomite distribution in the sub‐surface. Field work, as well as analyses of well cores, stable isotopes, trace elements and fluid inclusions, was carried out on the outcropping thrust belt and sub‐surface deformed foreland of the Southern Alps. Petrographic analyses showed a first, pervasive, replacement dolomitization phase (D1) followed by volumetrically less important dolomite cement precipitation phases (D2, D3 and D4). The δ¹⁸O values fall between ?8·2‰ and 0·1‰ Vienna‐Pee Dee Belemnite with the more depleted samples belonging to dolomite cement‐rich dolostones; the δ¹³C ranges from 2·6‰ to 3·7‰ Vienna‐Pee Dee Belemnite. Analysis of trace elements showed different Fe and Mn contents in the sub‐surface and outcropping dolostones, and a higher Fe in the younger dolomite cements. An increase in the precipitation temperature (up to 130 °C from fluid inclusion data) and a decrease in diagenetic fluid salinity (from sea water to brackish) are observed from the first pervasive replacement dolomite to the dolomite cement phases. Field observations indicate that, in the Albenza Formation, dolomitization was limited to palaeohighs or faulted platform margins in the Early Jurassic carbonates. The pervasive replacement phase is interpreted based on a ‘compaction model’; the formation fluids expelled from compacting basinal carbonates could have funnelled along faults into permeable palaeohighs. The high homogenization temperature of the dolomite cements and decreased salinities indicate precipitation at great depth with an influx of meteoric water. These data, along with the thermal history, suggest that the dolomite cements precipitated according to the ‘tectonic squeegee’ dolomitization model. The dolomite precipitation temperature was set against the thermal history of the carbonate platform to interpret the timing of dolomite precipitation. The dolomite precipitation temperatures (90 to 100 °C) were reached in the studied formations first in the thrust fold belt (Early Tertiary, 60 Ma), and then in the foreland succession during the Late Tertiary (10 Ma). This observation suggests that the dolomite precipitation fronts moved southwards over time, recording a ‘diagenetic wave’ linked to the migration of the orogenic system. Observations suggest that the porosity increased during the first phase of replacement dolomitization while the dolomite cementation phases partially occluded the pores. The distribution of porous dolomitized bodies is therefore linked to the ‘compaction dolomitization’ model.     

Selecting and assessing sustainable CDM projects using multi-criteria methods

Even though sustainable development has been broadly debated, the clean development mechanism (CDM) still lacks sophisticated multi-criteria decision methods for identifying, selecting and assessing CDM project activities from this perspective. Bearing in mind the huge number of CDM projects that are beginning to accumulate as the carbon market gains momentum, and the importance for non-Annex I Parties to keep focused on the sustainability objective, this article aims at developing a tool for prioritizing—within a given group, and once a specific list of sustainable development criteria is agreed upon and given—proposed CDM projects from this sustainable development point of view. We reached the following conclusions: (1) it is important to make a conscious choice of an appropriate way to normalize the sustainability performance data of CDM projects; (2) it is important to make a conscious choice of how to aggregate across multiple attributes; (3) in contrast with conventional multi-criteria assessments, which elicit preferences from a stakeholder panel, preference optimization infers from CDM projects' performance data an optimal set of weights that proponents would choose in order to win a competitive selection process. Such preference optimization methods (a) yield sensible results, simulating a range of decision circumstances, (b) avoid conflict and convey impartiality in situations where competing project proponents are likely to clash over objectionable weightings, (c) avoid cognitive overload when the number of CDM projects and/or indicators is overwhelmingly large, and (d) circumvent time-consuming and costly interviews and surveys.

From a policy perspective, the multi-criteria assessment described here can be a powerful tool for prioritizing CDM projects (1) when there is a limited amount of grant funding to certain CDM project candidates, and (2) when the decisionmaking process incorporates the CDM objective of promoting sustainable development, in addition to the objective of helping developed countries to meet part of their reduction obligations as specified in Annex I of the Protocol.     

Stratigraphy and depositional setting of slurry and contained (reflected) beds in the Marnoso‐arenacea Formation (Langhian‐Serravallian) Northern Apennines,Italy

This work presents the stratigraphy and facies analysis of an interval of about 2500 m in the Langhian and Serravallian stratigraphic succession of the foredeep turbidites of the Marnoso‐arenacea Formation. A high‐resolution stratigraphic analysis was performed by measuring seven stratigraphic logs between the Sillaro and Marecchia lines (60 km apart) for a total thickness of about 6700 m. The data suggest that the stratigraphy and depositional setting of the studied interval was influenced by syndepositional structural deformations. The studied stratigraphic succession has been subdivided into five informal stratigraphic units on the basis of how structurally controlled topographic highs and depocentres, a consequence of thrust propagation, change over time. These physiographic changes of the foredeep basin have also been reconstructed through the progressive appearance and disappearance of thrust‐related mass‐transport complexes and of five bed types interpreted as being related to structurally controlled basin morphology. Apart from Bouma‐like Type‐4 beds, Type‐1 tripartite beds, characterized by an internal slurry unit, tend to increase especially in structurally controlled stratigraphic units where intrabasinal topographic highs and depocentres with slope changes favour both mud erosion and decelerations. Type‐2 beds, with an internal slump‐type chaotic unit, characterize the basal boundary of structurally controlled stratigraphic units and are interpreted as indicating tectonic uplift. Type‐3 beds are contained‐reflected beds that indicate different degrees of basin confinement, while Type‐5 are thin and fine‐grained beds deposited by dilute reflected turbulent flows able to rise up the topographic highs. The vertical and lateral distribution of these beds has been used to understand the synsedimentary structural control of the studied stratigraphic succession, represented in the Marnoso‐arenacea Formation by subtle topographic highs and depocentres created by thrust‐propagation folds and emplacements of large mass‐transport complexes.     

Evidence of Magma Mixing in the 'Daly Gap' of Alkaline Suites: a Case Study from the Enclaves of Pantelleria (Italy)

The island of Pantelleria consists of trachytes, pantelleritesand minor mildly alkaline basalts. Rocks of intermediate composition(falling in the so-called ‘Daly Gap’) such as mugearites,benmoreites and mafic trachytes occur only in the form of enclavesin trachytes and pantellerites inside the main caldera of theisland (Caldera ‘Cinque Denti’), which collapsedduring the ‘Green Tuff’ ignimbrite eruption at 50ka. The enclaves include volcanic, subvolcanic and intrusiverock types. The enclaves in host trachyte contain traces ofglass; devitrified glass occurs within enclaves in host pantellerites.Minerals in the enclaves show regular compositional variationswith whole-rock silica content. Glass present in the medium-grainedsamples is interpreted to be the result of incipient melting.The major and trace element compositions of the enclaves showregular and linear variations between an evolved mafic magma(hawaiite) and a felsic end-member similar to the ‘GreenTuff’ trachyte. Fractional crystallization modelling ofcompatible and incompatible trace elements (V, Ni, Zr, La, Sm,Lu, Nb, Y, Th) does not reproduce the observed trends. Rocksof intermediate composition within the ‘Daly Gap’can be explained only by magma mixing between an already differentiatedmafic magma (hawaiite) and an anorthoclase-rich trachytic meltin the lower and higher parts, respectively, of a stratifiedmagmatic chamber. Medium-grained enclaves are interpreted asthe result of fragmentation of solidified mixing layers in theroof of the magma chamber during the eruption of the ‘GreenTuff’, when the collapse of the caldera took place. Diffusioncalculations suggest a residence time of <5 days for theenclaves in their host magmas. KEY WORDS: Daly Gap; enclaves; magma mixing; Pantelleria