Principal component analysis of Western Mediterranean air temperature variations 1866–1985

Summary A study of Western Mediterranean temperature variations (annual and seasonal data) is presented covering a period of 120 years (1866–1985) and using the principal component analysis (PCA). The meteorological stations are splitted into two groups: Group A comprises northern stations, group B southern stations. The variations in group A-data indicate a decreasing temperature tendency from the year 1866 to the second decade of the 20th century; a temperature rise follows until the middle of the decade 1940–1950 and then temperatures, although remaining higher than the long-term mean value, show a marked decrease. The variations in group Bdata indicate a similar picture but with a time lag of 20 to 25 years. The temperature drop during the last 35 years (group A) is due to pronounced decrease in summer temperatures whereas the winter temperatures for the same period show a marked tendency to increase.

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Zusammenfassung Es wird eine Untersuchung der Temperaturvariationen (Jahres-und jahreszeitliche Daten) des westlichen Mittelmeergebietes vorgestellt, die einen Zeitraum von 120 Jahren (1866–1985) überdeckt und mit Hilfe der Hauptkomponentenanalyse (principal component analysis, PCA) durchgeführt wurde. Dazu wurden die meteorologischen Stationen in zwei Gruppen aufgeteilt: Die Gruppe A umfaßt die nördlichen, die Gruppe B die südlichen Stationen. Die Variationen der Gruppe A weisen einen abnehmenden Temperaturtrend vom Jahr 1866 bis zur zweiten Dekade des 20. Jahrhunderts auf; darauf folgt ein Temperaturanstieg bis zur Mitte der Dekade 1940–1950, bevor wieder ein deutlicher Temperaturabfall einsetzt, der jedoch den langfristigen Mittelwert nicht unterschreitet. Die Variationen der Gruppe B zeigen ein ähnliches Bild, jedoch mit einer Zeitverschiebung von 20 bis 25 Jahren. Der Temperaturabfall der letzten 35 Jahre (Gruppe A) wird auf einen ausgeprägten Rückgang der Sommertemperaturen zurückgeführt, während die Wintertemperaturen in der gleichen Zeitspanne eine gut erkennbare Anstiegstendenz aufweisen.

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With 6 Figures     

Lessons Learned from 25 Years of Research at the MADE Site

Field studies at well‐instrumented research sites have provided extensive data sets and important insights essential for development and testing of transport theories and mathematical models. This paper provides an overview of over 25 years of research and lessons learned at one of such field research sites on the Columbus Air Force Base in Mississippi, commonly known as the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site. Since the mid‐1980s, field data from the MADE site have been used extensively by researchers around the world to explore complex contaminant transport phenomena in highly heterogeneous porous media. Results from field investigations and modeling analyses suggested that connected networks of small‐scale preferential flow paths and relative flow barriers exert dominant control on solute transport processes. The classical advection‐dispersion model was shown to inadequately represent plume‐scale transport, while the dual‐domain mass transfer model was found to reproduce the primary observed plume characteristics. The MADE site has served as a valuable natural observatory for contaminant transport studies where new observations have led to better understanding and improved models have sprung out analysis of new data.     

U/Pb and Pb/Pb zircon ages for arc-related intrusions of the Bolu Massif (W Pontides, NW Turkey): evidence for Late Precambrian (Cadomian) age

We present new U/Pb and Pb/Pb radiometric age data from two tectono-stratigraphic units of the regionally extensive Bolu Massif, in the W Pontides (İstanbul Fragment), N Turkey. A structurally lower unit (Sünnice Group) is cut by small meta-granitic intrusions, whereas the structurally higher unit comprises meta-volcanic rocks (Çaşurtepe Fm) cut by meta-granitic plutons (Tüllükiriş and Kapıkaya plutons). U/Pb single-crystal dating of zircons from the Kapıkaya Pluton yielded a concordant cluster, with a mean ²³⁸U/²⁰⁶Pb age of 565.3 ± 1.9 Ma. Zircons from the Tüllükiriş Pluton (affected by Pb loss) gave a ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 576 ± 6 Ma age (Late Precambrian). Small meta-granitic intrusions cutting the Sünnice Group yielded a less precise ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age of 262 ± 19 Ma (Early Permian). The older ages from the Bolu Massif confirm the existence of latest Precambrian arc magmatism related to subduction of a Cadomian ocean. We infer that the Bolu Massif represents a fragment of a Cadomian active margin. Cadomian orogenic units were dispersed as exotic terranes throughout the Variscan and Tethyan orogens, and the Bolu Massif probably reached its present position prior to latest Palaeozoic time. Our dating results also confirm that NW Turkey was affected by Hercynian magmatism related to subduction of Palaeotethys, as inferred for other areas of the Pontides.     

Assessing climate change impacts on river hydrology – A case study in the Western Ghats of India

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow in a west flowing river originating in the Western Ghats of India. The long-term trend analysis for 110 yr of meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) was carried out using the modified Mann–Kendall trend test and the magnitude of the trend was quantified using the Sen’s slope estimator. The Regional Climate Model (RCM), COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX) simulated daily weather data of baseline (1951–2005) and future RCP 4.5 scenarios (2006–2060) were used to run the hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in order to evaluate the effect of climate change on rainfall, temperature and streamflow. Significant changes were observed with regard to rainfall, which have shown decreasing trend at the rate of 2.63 mm per year for the historical and 8.85 mm per year for RCP 4.5 future scenarios. The average temperature was found to be increasing at \(0.10\,^{\circ }\hbox {C}\) per decade for both historical and future scenarios. The impact of climate change on the annual streamflow yielded a decreasing trend at the rate of \(1.2\,\hbox {Mm}^{3}\) per year and 2.56 \(\hbox {Mm}^{3},\) respectively for the past and future scenarios. The present work also investigates the capability of SWAT to simulate the groundwater flow. The simulated results are compared with the recession limb of the hydrograph and were found to be reasonably accurate.     

Fluvial processes and settlement in arid environments

The impact of fluvial geomorphic processes on settlement in deserts is tie d to two conflicting factors: the extreme rarity of geomorphic events on the one hand, and the violence of the geomorphic forces coupled with a minimal resistance to erosion on the other.The unique character of desert floods calls for a careful geomorphic evaluation in the siting of settlements and transportation facilities. On the beneficial sid e, the geomorphic processes involved enable, under some conditions, the local exploitation of floodwaters which percolate in the alluvium of the upper tributaries, as well as the utilization of the hydraulic geometry for estimating discharge characteristics.On a larger scale, human interference often disrupts the delicate quasi-equilbrium between erosion and sedimentation in deserts. Although our poor understanding of many aspects of the mechanism of response makes it difficult to separate the effects from those of climatic changes, enough information is available to document the detrimental effect of inconsiderate management on both the regional and local levels.     

Natural vibrations of shear wall buildings on flexible supports

A shear wall building is considered as an assembly of plane and curvilinear shear walls tied together by floor slabs to act as a composite unit. Based on this conception and the continuous medium approach, the governing dynamic equations and boundary conditions are derived from energy principles, using Vlasov's theory of thin-walled beams. All primary and secondary inertia forces, as well as the influence of elastic foundation flexibility, have been taken into consideration. A numerical solution of the dynamic equations is achieved by employing the Ritz-Galerkin technique, yielding both natural frequencies and mode shapes. The technique is applicable to buildings containing coupled and non-coupled, open section shear walls oriented in plan in any arbitrary manner. The use of the method is illustrated by the example of a complex building with unsymmetric plan, and the analytical natural frequencies of two shear wall building models are compared with those obtained experimentally by other investigators.     

Seasonal climate patterns and their influence on calibration of the Hargreaves-Samani equation

Abstract

Annual patterns in climate parameters were studied to evaluate how these influence the quality of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimates obtained from the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation, since the method only uses the measured temperature directly. The work evaluates how these patterns can be used to improve the HS ETo estimates. Ten-year moving averages from a set of California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations were used to evaluate the relationships between solar radiation (R_s), temperature (T) and ETo. The results indicate that T treads behind solar radiation and its value peaks some 25 days later. Thus, the main irrigation season in the Mediterranean climate (1 May–30 September) can be divided into three phases: increasing R_s and T; decreasing R_s with increasing T; and decreasing R_s and T. Non-univocal annual cycles were observed between R_s and T, ETo and R_s, and ETo and T. These annual patterns result in important seasonal changes in the ratio between the HS and Penman-Monteith (FAO PM) ETo estimates. The changes are particularly important during the irrigation season, where the FAO PM initially calculates greater ETo values than the HS methodology, and from the end of May to early September, where the HS equation overestimates the ETo values (by 17 mm, or 3%). These patterns obtained from 2000–2009 data were used to calibrate and improve HS ETo estimates at new sites for the 2010–2011 period. Calibration based on the proposed seasonal region-wide FAO PM/HS ETo ratios improved both the bias (decreased from 0.40 to 0.36 mm d^-1) and r² (increased from 0.67 to 0.87) of the ETo estimates for the irrigation season. The proposed methodology can be easily applied to other regions, even when the existing weather stations are sparse.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz     

On the size distribution of ice-supersaturated regions in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere

In order to determine typical sizes of ice-supersaturated regions (ISSRs) in the upper troposphere and lowermost stratosphere we set up the frequency distribution of path lengths flown by MOZAIC aircraft within ISSRs. The mean path length is about 150 km with a standard deviation of 250 km. We analyse the influence of a selection bias (viz. that large ISSRs are more often crossed by aircraft than small ones) on the obtained path length statistics and derive a mathematical equation that relates the path length distribution to the underlying size distribution of ISSRs, assuming that they have circular shape. We solve the equation (by trial and error) and test the result using numerical simulations. Surprisingly, we find that there may be many more very small ISSRs than apparent from the data such that the true mean diameter of the ISSRs may be of the order a few kilometres only. The relevance of the result is discussed and dedicated research flights to measure the true extension of ISSRs are recommended.     

Development of means and methods of drifter technology applied to the problem of the Black Sea research

During the last ten years, autonomous drifting platforms for data collection (drifters) equipped with Argos satellite communication devices have become one of the main components for the observation system in the upper layer of the ocean and surface atmosphere. This article presents the results of the Black Sea drifter monitoring in 2002–2006 within a number of international programs and projects. During this period, about 70 drifters manufactured by NPF Marlin-Yug Ltd. (Sevastopol, Ukraine) were deployed in the western part of the Black Sea. The drifters were mainly standard barometric Lagrangian tracers and a part of them were principally new temperature profiling buoys. Unique long-term data were obtained about the circulation of the surface currents and the dynamics of the temperature stratification within the seasonal thermocline and the cold intermediate layer.