Models of travel demand with endogenous preference change and heterogeneous agents

In the literatures of regional science, urban economics, and urban development planning, a working assumption is that individuals respond to incentives and regulations, given their preferences. Models for planning and policy analyses are used to consider what might occur if the incentives or regulations were different. In these models, however, preferences are usually assumed to be given and stable, and agents are usually assumed to be homogeneous. This paper focuses on the implications of making preferences in models of policy implementation endogenously determined and time varying heterogeneous agents. We consider first the recent literature on intertemporal choice and preference change, which cuts across many disciplines, and more briefly the literature on norm-regarding behavior. We then elaborate a simple model of transportation demand—from a static to a dynamic orientation, from fixed and exogenously given preferences of strictly self-regarding agents to endogenously determined and policy-induced preferences of heterogeneous agents—and illustrate its characteristics with simple numerical examples.     

Impact of Earth radiation pressure on GPS position estimates

GPS satellite orbits available from the International GNSS Service (IGS) show a consistent radial bias of up to several cm and a particular pattern in the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) residuals, which are suggested to be related to radiation pressure mismodeling. In addition, orbit-related frequencies were identified in geodetic time series such as apparent geocenter motion and station displacements derived from GPS tracking data. A potential solution to these discrepancies is the inclusion of Earth radiation pressure (visible and infrared) modeling in the orbit determination process. This is currently not yet considered by all analysis centers contributing to the IGS final orbits. The acceleration, accounting for Earth radiation and satellite models, is introduced in this paper in the computation of a global GPS network (around 200 IGS sites) adopting the analysis strategies from the Center for Orbit Determination in Europe (CODE). Two solutions covering 9 years (2000–2008) with and without Earth radiation pressure were computed and form the basis for this study. In previous studies, it has been shown that Earth radiation pressure has a non-negligible effect on the GPS orbits, mainly in the radial component. In this paper, the effect on the along-track and cross-track components is studied in more detail. Also in this paper, it is shown that Earth radiation pressure leads to a change in the estimates of GPS ground station positions, which is systematic over large regions of the Earth. This observed “deformation” of the Earth is towards North–South and with large scale patterns that repeat six times per GPS draconitic year (350 days), reaching a magnitude of up to 1 mm. The impact of Earth radiation pressure on the geocenter and length of day estimates was also investigated, but the effect is found to be less significant as compared to the orbits and position estimates.     

MELTWATER FLUXES AT AN ARCTIC FOREST-TUNDRA SITE

Models of surface energy balance and snow metamorphism are utilized to predict the energy and meltwater fluxes at an Arctic site in the forest–tundra transition zone of north-western Canada. The surface energy balance during the melt period is modelled using an hourly bulk aerodynamic approach. Once a snowcover becomes patchy, advection from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas results in a large spatial variation in basin snowmelt. In order to illustrate the importance of small-scale, horizontal advection, a simple parameterization scheme using sensible heat fluxes from snow free areas was tested. This scheme estimates the maximum horizontal advection of sensible heat from the bare patches to the snow-covered areas. Calculated melt was routed through the measured snowcover in each landscape type using a variable flow path, meltwater percolation model. This allowed the determination of the spatial variability in the timing and magnitude of meltwater release for runoff. Model results indicate that the initial release of meltwater first occurred on the shallow upland tundra sites, but meltwater release did not occur until nearly two weeks later on the deep drift snowcovers. During these early periods of melt, not all meltwater is available for runoff. Instead, there is a period when some snowpacks are only partially contributing to runoff, and the spatial variation of runoff contribution corresponds to landscape type. Comparisons of melt with and without advection suggests that advection is an important process controlling the timing of basin snowmelt.     

VELOCITY DISPERSION OF SEISMIC WAVES*

In well velocity surveys made to calibrate Sonic (CV) Logs the calibration survey uses frequencies around 50 Hz whereas the Sonic Logging tool uses frequencies around 20 kHz. There thus exists the possibility of making a direct measure of velocity dispersion. In any one survey the disturbing factors, both instrumental and operational, will often mask any dispersive effect that might exist. Consequently this paper reports on a statistical analysis of the velocity differences resulting from calibration surveys and Sonic logs. Only Borehole Compensated Sonic Logs were used. Four areas were investigated: the North Sea, Abu Dhabi, Libya and Alaska. After rejecting logs and calibration records which were obviously in error there remained 424000 feet (about 130 km) of usable log distributed throughout 66 wells. The four areas were analysed separately and in no case was the estimated dispersion significantly different from zero. However, the mean values did correlate with lithology from (? 0.17 ± 0.18)% for the essentially carbonate section in Abu Dhabi to (+ 0.45 ± 0.25)% for the sand-shale section in Alaska, a positive sign meaning that the higher frequencies travelled faster. Except for Alaska the calibration surveys were made with a wall-clamp geophone, and for these areas amplitude measurements were made. After suitable corrections estimates of the absorption parameter Q were obtained. These varied from 20 to 200 with mean values of 63 for Libya, 70 for Abu Dhabi and 88 for the North Sea (excluding the Tertiary). If, as is usually assumed, the absorption mechanism is linear and is described by a Q which is independent of frequency, then these values would necessarily imply dispersion of several percent. As instanced above no such dispersion was observed. It is possible that the expected dispersion was compensated for by invasion of the mud filtrate into the borehole walls, but it is more likely that the absorption mechanism was substantially non-linear.     

On the Occurrence of Zellia from the Maping Limestone of Chengkung, Central Yunnan

INTRODUCTIONThe specimens described in the present paper were collected in 1939 by the late Mr. T. Y. Hsu and Mr. C. S. Pien from the Maping limestone exposed E of Tuikoshan, Chengkung district, Central Yunnan. All specimens belong to Zellia, a subgenus of Pseudoschwagerina; three forms may be referred to known subspecies while two are new.     

The neotectonics and geodynamics of the Lower Oka Region (East European Craton)

The neotectonic structures of the Lower Oka (Nizhneokskii) Region formed under different geodynamic conditions. This is attested by the morphology, orientation, internal structure, and jointing of the structures. The Oka-Tsna arc formed under the effect of tension from an inner source on the one hand and stress from the Alpian belt on the other hand. The latitudinally-oriented structures of the northwestern slope of the Tokmovo arc emerged as a result of uplift and widening. Both types of structure are combined within the limits of the Oka-Murom trough, which is a geodynamically active zone.     

The development of three-dimensional current system during a magnetospheric substorm

It is suggested that the pattern of three-dimensional substorm current circuit varies significantly even during the lifetime of a single substorm. This gives rise to quite complex time variations of the magnetic field at low latitude stations even for relatively isolated substorms. To verify this, three-dimensional current models with time dependent spatial variations are used to simulate one type of complex low-latitude “substorm signature”. It is shown that the utmost care should be exercised in determining different substorm phases on the basis of such a signature. The results indicate also that, in certain longitudes in the evening sector, one should expect distinct differences in characteristics between positive bays observed on the ground and at the synchronous distance.