On the recent warming of the southeastern Bering Sea shelf

During the last decade, the southeastern Bering Sea shelf has undergone a warming of 3 °C that is closely associated with a marked decrease of sea ice over the area. This shift in the physical environment of the shelf can be attributed to a combination of mechanisms, including the presence over the eastern Bering Sea shelf of a relatively mild air mass during the winter, especially from 2000 to 2005; a shorter ice season caused by a later fall transition and/or an earlier spring transition; increased flow through Unimak Pass during winter, which introduces warm Gulf of Alaska water onto the southeastern shelf; and the feedback mechanism whereby warmer ocean temperatures during the summer delay the southward advection of sea ice during winter. While the relative importance of these four mechanisms is difficult to quantify, it is evident that for sea ice to form, cold arctic winds must cool the water column. Sea ice is then formed in the polynyas during periods of cold north winds, and this ice is advected southward over the eastern shelf. The other three mechanisms can modify ice formation and melt, and hence its extent. In combination, these four mechanisms have served to temporally and spatially limit ice during the 5-year period (2001–2005). Warming of the eastern Bering Sea shelf could have profound influences on the ecosystem of the Bering Sea—from modification of the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom to the northward advance of subarctic species and the northward retreat of arctic species.     

Algorithm for non-hydrostatic dynamics in the Regional Oceanic Modeling System

A non-hydrostatic algorithm for the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) is proposed. It is based on a decomposition technique for hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic pressure. The algorithm has a pressure-correction scheme with split-explicit time-stepping for baroclinic and barotropic vertical modes with a free surface. The algorithm implementation requires solving a Poisson equation for a non-hydrostatic pressure that has a non-symmetric matrix in discrete form. The efficiency of a different class of solvers and preconditioners were tested. The algorithm is successfully implemented with several examples where non-hydrostatic effects are important. These include standing external gravity waves; strongly nonlinear internal wave generation and transformation; stratified shear instability and its associated mixing; and nonlinear internal tidal generation over a ridge. The corresponding changes in the pre-processing and post-processing infrastructure in the existing hydrostatic ROMS code were performed to implement parallel elliptic solvers and a new set of dynamical equations.     

Resilience assessment on coastline changes and urban settlements: A case study in Seribu Islands, Indonesia

The sustainable development in the ocean and costal areas has been an issue for the archipelago nation. Since two decades ago, some archipelago nations have attempted to implement the concept of both scientifically and politically sounding sustainability. The vulnerability assessment is one of the methods that are being used to measure the ocean and coastal sustainability in order to have better evaluation and redesign of the land development as well as policy making. Most of the vulnerability assessment has been conducted based on pressures, damages and changes that involve in the region. A common understanding of the vulnerability assessment is that there are three aspects to be considered: hazards, resilience and damages. These three aspects must be well defined at first in order to have better indicators or sub-indices for the vulnerability index. There are several issues and factors that should be considered before performing the vulnerability assessment. Firstly, each country has different coastal characteristics due to a different geologic process. Secondly, the three aspects of the vulnerability (i.e. hazards, resilience and damages) are impacting on each country at a different scale. Thirdly, the vulnerability of a small island region is different from that of a large island region. Finally, policies and regulations vary in each country.From the data analysis results, it is found that the urban settlement in Seribu Islands is one of the resilient factors in addition to the geological and geomorphological conditions. The resilience factors in Seribu Islands are classified into four categories: 1) settlements area, 2) population density, 3) hard infrastructure such as airfields, ports and roads, 4) geological process such as abrasion and erosion. Based on the island characteristics of Seribu Islands, a unique vulnerability index that fits to this locality is developed. It is shown that the vulnerability index developed in this study can measure the resilience of Seribu Islands. In addition to the aforementioned resilience factors, the unique geographical condition and the geological stability in Seribu Islands made the outer islands become a barrier from oceanographic conditions and made the inner islands protected. However, the population growth made significant changes in terms of ecology, water, sanitation and pollution within the region.     

Deep-sea nematode assemblage has not recovered 26 years after experimental mining of polymetallic nodules (Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone, Tropical Eastern Pacific)

We investigated nematode assemblages inhabiting the 26-year-old track created by experimental deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules, and two adjacent, undisturbed sites, one with nodules and one without nodules. The aim was to compare density, assemblage structure, and diversity indices in order to assess the process of recovery of the nematode assemblage inhabiting the disturbed site. This experimental dredging was conducted in 1978 by the Ocean Minerals Company (USA) in the area of a French mining claim in the Clarion-Clipperton Fracture Zone (Tropical Eastern Pacific) at a depth of about 5000 m. The nematode assemblage had not returned its initial state 26 years after the experimental dredging: the total nematode density and biomass within the dredging track were significantly lower than outside the track; the biodiversity indices showed significantly lower nematode diversity within the track; and the structure of the nematode assemblage within the track differed significantly from those in the two undisturbed sites outside the track. However, there were no significant differences in the mean body volumes of adult nematodes and adult-juvenile ratios between the track and reference sites. Parameters such as the rate of sediment restoration (which depends on local hydrological conditions) and the degree and character of the disturbance appeared to be of considerable importance for the recovery rate of the deep-sea nematode assemblages and their ability to recolonize disturbed areas. The rates of recolonization and recovery may vary widely in different deep-sea regions.     

Impact of hydrotalcite deposition on biogeochemical processes in a shallow tropical bay

The biogeochemistry of a tropical shoal bay (Melville Bay, Australia) impacted by the effluent release, precipitation, and deposition of hydrotalcite from an alumina refinery was studied in both wet and dry seasons. Within the deposition zone, sulfate reduction dominated benthic carbon cycling accounting for ≈100% of total microbial activity, with rates greater than those measured in most other marine sediments. These rapid rates of anoxic metabolism resulted in high rates of sulfide and ammonium production and low C:S ratios, implying significant preservation of S in stable sulfide minerals. Rates of total microbial activity were significantly less in control sediments of equivalent grain size, where sulfate reduction accounted for ≈50% of total benthic metabolism. Rates of planktonic carbon cycling overlying the deposition zone were also greater than those measured in the control areas of southern Melville Bay. At the sediment surface, productive algal and cyanobacterial mats helped stabilize the sediment surface and oxidize sulfide to sulfate to maintain a fully oxygenated water-column overlying the impacted zone. The mats utilized a significant fraction of dissolved inorganic N and P released from the sea bed; some nutrients escaped to the water-column such that benthic regeneration of NH?+ and PO?3? accounted for 100% and 42% of phytoplankton requirements for N and P, respectively. These percentages are high compared to other tropical coastal environments and indicate that benthic nutrient recycling may be a significant factor driving water-column production overlying the deposition zone. With regard to remediation, it is recommended that the sea bed not be disturbed as attempts at removal may result in further environmental problems and would require specific assessment of the proposed removal process.     

Estimation of changes in characteristics of the climate and carbon cycle in the 21st century accounting for the uncertainty of terrestrial biota parameter values

ensemble simulations with the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS) climate model (CM) for the 21st century are analyzed taking into account anthropogenic forcings in accordance with the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B, and B1, whereas agricultural land areas were assumed to change in accordance with the Land Use Harmonization project scenarios. Different realizations within these ensemble experiments were constructed by varying two governing parameters of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The ensemble simulations were analyzed with the use of Bayesian statistics, which makes it possible to suppress the influence of unrealistic members of these experiments on their results. It is established that, for global values of the main characteristics of the terrestrial carbon cycle, the SRES scenarios used do not differ statistically from each other, so within the framework of the model, the primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation will increase in the 21st century from 74 ± 1 to 102 ± 13 PgC yr⁻¹ and the carbon storage in terrestrial vegetation will increase from 511 ± 8 to 611 ± 8 PgC (here and below, we indicate the mean ± standard deviations). The mutual compensation of changes in the soil carbon stock in different regions will make global changes in the soil carbon storage in the 21st century statistically insignificant. The global CO₂ uptake by terrestrial ecosystems will increase in the first half of the 21st century, whereupon it will decrease. The uncertainty interval of this variable in the middle (end) of the 21st century will be from 1.3 to 3.4 PgC yr⁻¹ (from 0.3 to 3.1 PgC yr⁻¹). In most regions, an increase in the net productivity of terrestrial vegetation (especially outside the tropics), the accumulation of carbon in this vegetation, and changes in the amount of soil carbon stock (with the total carbon accumulation in soils of the tropics and subtropics and the regions of both accumulation and loss of soil carbon at higher latitudes) will be robust within the ensemble in the 21st century, as will the CO₂ uptake from the atmosphere only by terrestrial ecosystems located at extratropical latitudes of Eurasia, first and foremost by the Siberian taiga. However, substantial differences in anthropogenic emissions between the SRES scenarios in the 21st century lead to statistically significant differences between these scenarios in the carbon dioxide uptake by the ocean, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere, and changes in the surface air temperature. In particular, according to the SRES A2 (A1B, B1) scenario, in 2071–2100 the carbon flux from the atmosphere to the ocean will be 10.6 ± 0.6 PgC yr⁻¹ (8.3 ± 0.5, 5.6 ± 0.3 PgC yr⁻¹), and the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will reach 773 ± 28 ppmv (662 ± 24, 534 ± 16 ppmv) by 2100. The annual mean warming in 2071–2100 relatively to 1961–1990 will be 3.19 ± 0.09 K (2.52 ± 0.08, 1.84 ± 0.06 K).     

Ionospheric response to submarine earthquake of March 11, 2011, in Japan according to GPS observations

Using available Russian and international Global Positioning System (GPS) network data, we studied the ionospheric response to the M = 8.9 submarine earthquake of March 11, 2011, on the northeastern coast of Honshu Island, Japan, both near and far (about 2000 km away) from the epicenter. In the region over the epicenter, 8.7 min after the event, we detected a characteristic signal of the total electron content (TEC) variations consisting of compression and rarefaction phases and a linear transition zone in between, i.e., in the form of an N-type wave with a steep leading front indicating a rapid uplift of the water surface and, correspondingly, the bottom of the ocean. The shape of the signal can be used for early tsunami warning; i.e., it may indicate the tsunamigenic character of a submarine earthquake. We monitored the subsequent evolution of the ionospheric response as far as 2000 km from the epicenter. It was shown that, besides the wellknown ionospheric N-type wave response to the earthquake, there is also a response in the form of an inverted N-wave, both nearby and far from the epicenter. We detected two more types of ionospheric responses far from the epicenter: a solitary-like wave and an internal gravity wave (IGW). The detected signals have been interpreted.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of POLYMODE data assimilation by a numerical barotropic model for synoptic motions

This paper considers the results of numerical experiments involving POLYMODE data assimilation by a barotropic model for synoptic ocean dynamics. The model's response the data assimilation for various space-time discretenesses of assimilation is studied. Results derived from the application of optimal interpolation algorithms and modified optimal filtration algorithms are compared. Qualitative similarity to the calculations carried out through the simulation modelling technique is noted. Optimal assimilation algorithms are determined, depending on the space-time discreteness used. An optimal sampling discreteness for the POLYMODE conditions is suggested.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Relationship between the anomalies of temperature and air pressure over the ocean

This paper considers the relationship between multi-year air temperature and pressure fluctuations over the ocean, based on an approximate solution of the problem on the determination of large-scale seawater temperature anomalies from the conditions predominating at the sea surface. The dependence derived is numerically analysed using observations made in the North Atlantic. It is shown that the variability of annual mean air temperature anomalies is largely controlled by the air pressure field which has taken place during the preceding long-term period. The dependence derived may be applied to generate long-term forecasts of the ocean's hydrometeorological regime.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.