Transient climate changes in a perturbed parameter ensemble of emissions-driven earth system model simulations

We describe results from a 57-member ensemble of transient climate change simulations, featuring simultaneous perturbations to 54 parameters in the atmosphere, ocean, sulphur cycle and terrestrial ecosystem components of an earth system model (ESM). These emissions-driven simulations are compared against the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble of physical climate system models, used extensively to inform previous assessments of regional climate change, and also against emissions-driven simulations from ESMs contributed to the CMIP5 archive. Members of our earth system perturbed parameter ensemble (ESPPE) are competitive with CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in their simulations of historical climate. In particular, they perform reasonably well in comparison with HadGEM2-ES, a more sophisticated and expensive earth system model contributed to CMIP5. The ESPPE therefore provides a computationally cost-effective tool to explore interactions between earth system processes. In response to a non-intervention emissions scenario, the ESPPE simulates distributions of future regional temperature change characterised by wide ranges, and warm shifts, compared to those of CMIP3 models. These differences partly reflect the uncertain influence of global carbon cycle feedbacks in the ESPPE. In addition, the regional effects of interactions between different earth system feedbacks, particularly involving physical and ecosystem processes, shift and widen the ESPPE spread in normalised patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change in many regions. Significant differences from CMIP3 also arise from the use of parametric perturbations (rather than a multimodel ensemble) to represent model uncertainties, and this is also the case when ESPPE results are compared against parallel emissions-driven simulations from CMIP5 ESMs. When driven by an aggressive mitigation scenario, the ESPPE and HadGEM2-ES reveal significant but uncertain impacts in limiting temperature increases during the second half of the twenty-first century. Emissions-driven simulations create scope for development of errors in properties that were previously prescribed in coupled ocean–atmosphere models, such as historical CO₂ concentrations and vegetation distributions. In this context, historical intra-ensemble variations in the airborne fraction of CO₂ emissions, and in summer soil moisture in northern hemisphere continental regions, are shown to be potentially useful constraints, subject to uncertainties in the relevant observations. Our results suggest that future climate-related risks can be assessed more comprehensively by updating projection methodologies to support formal combination of emissions-driven perturbed parameter and multi-model earth system model simulations with suitable observational constraints. This would provide scenarios underpinned by a more complete representation of the chain of uncertainties from anthropogenic emissions to future climate outcomes.     

Hydrogen photoionization rates for chromospheric and prominence plasmas

New values of hydrogen photoionization rates for subordinate continua arising from bound levels with the principal quantum number i = 2–5 have been evaluated numerically, using an extensive compilation of the observed photospheric radiation fields. These rates can be directly incorporated into the equations of statistical equilibrium as so-called fixed rates. We tabulate the photoionization rates and equivalent radiation temperatures for various heights above the photosphere, which is particularly useful for chromospheric and prominence non-LTE modeling. Finally, we compare our results with those previously obtained by other authors.     

Middle Pleistocene environments,landscapes and tephrostratigraphy of the Armenian Highlands: evidence from Bird Farm 1, Hrazdan Valley

The significance of the southern Caucasus in understanding Pleistocene hominin expansions is well established. However, the palaeoenvironments in which Palaeolithic occupation of the region took place are presently poorly defined. The Hrazdan river valley, Armenian Highlands, contains a rich Palaeolithic record alongside Middle Pleistocene volcanic, fluvial and lacustrine strata, and thus offer exciting potential for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. We present the first results of sedimentological, geochemical, tephrostratigraphical and biological (diatoms) study of the sequence of Bird Farm 1, located in the central part of the valley. These data show six phases of landscape development during the interval 440–200 ka. The sequence represents the first quantitative Pleistocene diatom record from the Armenian Highlands and the southern Caucasus, and indicates the persistence of a deep, stratified lacustrine system, with evidence for changing lake productivity that is tentatively linked to climate. Furthermore, major element chemical characterization of visible and crypto-tephra horizons in the sequence enables the first stages of the development of a regional tephrostratigraphy. Together, the evidence from Bird Farm 1 demonstrates the importance of lacustrine archives in the region for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction and highlights the potential for linkages between archives on both a local and regional scale.     

EFFECTIVE DISCHARGE CALCULATION GUIDE

1 mTRonvcnox: moareS Aun CoxcmSAJluvial rivers have the pOtenhal to adjust their shaPe and dimensions to all flows that tranSPOrtsediment, but Inglis (l94l) suggested that, for rivers that are in regime, a single steady flow could beidenhfied which would Produce the same bankfll dimensions as the natural sequence of events. Hereferrd to this now as the dondnan discharge.Wolman and Mller (l960) idenhfied that the flow doing most bed material transPort over a period ofyears may be taken tO…     

An Experimental Study of Crack Coalescence Behaviour in Rock-Like Materials Containing Multiple Flaws Under Uniaxial Compression

Experiments on man-made flawed rock-like materials are applied extensively to study the mechanical behaviour of rock masses as well as crack initiation modes and crack coalescence types. A large number of experiments on specimens containing two or three pre-existing flaws were previously conducted. In the present work, experiments on rock-like materials (formed from a mixture of sand, plaster, limestone and water at mass ratio of 126:9:9:16) containing multiple flaws subjected to uniaxial compression were conducted to further research the effects of the layout of pre-existing flaws on mechanical properties, crack initiation modes and crack coalescence types. Compared with previous experiments in which only three types of cracks were found, the present experiments on specimens containing multiple flaws under uniaxial compression revealed five types of cracks, including wing cracks, quasi-coplanar secondary cracks, oblique secondary cracks, out-of-plane tensile cracks and out-of-plane shear cracks. Ten types of crack coalescence occurred through linkage among wing cracks, quasi-coplanar secondary cracks, oblique secondary cracks, out-of-plane shear cracks and out-of-plane tensile cracks. Moreover, the effects of the non-overlapping length and flaw angle on the complete stress–strain curves, the stress of crack initiation, the peak strength, the peak strain and the elastic modulus were also investigated in detail.     

Knickpoint recession rate and catchment area: the case of uplifted rivers in Eastern Scotland

Knickpoint behaviour is a key to understanding both the landscape responses to a base‐level fall and the corresponding sediment fluxes from rejuvenated catchments, and must be accommodated in numerical models of large‐scale landscape evolution. Knickpoint recession in streams draining to glacio‐isostatically uplifted shorelines in eastern Scotland is used to assess whether knickpoint recession is a function of discharge (here represented by its surrogate, catchment area). Knickpoints are identified using DS plots (log slope versus log downstream distance). A statistically significant power relationship is found between distance of headward recession and catchment area. Such knickpoint recession data may be used to determine the values of m and n in the stream power law, E = KA^mSⁿ. The data have too many uncertainties, however, to judge definitively whether they are consistent with m = n = 1 (bedrock erosion is proportional to stream power and KPs should be maintained and propagate headwards) or m = 0·3, n = 0·7 (bedrock incision is proportional to shear stress and KPs do not propagate but degrade in place by rotation or replacement). Nonetheless, the E Scotland m and n values point to the dominance of catchment area (discharge) in determining knickpoint retreat rates and are therefore more consistent with the stream power law formulation in which bedrock erosion is proportional to stream power. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.