On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Horizontal and Vertical Structure of Geostrophic Currents in the Black Sea According to the Data of the Summer Survey Performed as a Part of the ComSBlack-92 Program

We describe the methodology and software developed for the numerical analysis of the characteristics of the horizontal and vertical structure of geostrophic currents. We present the results of computation of these characteristics according to the data of the summer survey of the Black Sea carried out as a part of the ComSBlack-92 program. The distinctive features of the space structure of geostrophic currents discovered as a result and the established parameters of their variability may supplement the existing data on the current field in the Black Sea.     

Forced Waves in a Bounded Basin with One Thermocline

Within the framework of the linear theory taking into account the action of the Coriolis force, we study waves induced in a continuously stratified fluid with one thermocline by periodic variations of pressure on the free surface. The fluid fills a bounded basin of constant depth. We establish the dependences of the wave amplitudes and wave velocities on the period of disturbing pressure. The sequence of transformations of generated waves from the barotropic character of motion to baroclinic depending on changes in the period of disturbing pressure is studied in detail.     

Inhibition of coral fertilisation and larval metamorphosis by tributyltin and copper

Fertilisation and larval metamorphosis of reef-building corals are important life history events leading to recruitment of juvenile corals to reef populations. Little is known of the sensitivity of these early life phases to pollution, or their relative susceptibility to certain toxicants compared with established coral colonies. Inhibition of fertilisation and larval metamorphosis of the coral Acropora millepora (Ehrenberg, 1834) was assessed in response to solutions of the antifoulants tributyltin (TBT) and copper (Cu) using laboratory-based bioassays. Nominal concentrations that inhibited 50% fertilisation and metamorphosis (IC50) were calculated from 4 h fertilisation and 24 h metamorphosis assays and were based on introduced dose. Cu was most potent towards fertilisation with an IC50 of 17.4 micrograms/l. TBT however, proved more toxic to larval metamorphosis having an IC50 of 2.0 micrograms/l. Inert surfaces coated with either Cu- or TBT-based antifouling paint also inhibited fertilisation and metamorphosis. The degree of inhibition was correlated with surface area of the paint coating. These results indicate fertilisation and metamorphosis of coral can be sensitive to active components of antifouling paints.     

A map series of the Southern East Pacific Rise and its flanks, 15° S to 19° S

Four large-scale bathymetric maps of the Southern East Pacific Rise and its flanks between 15° S and 19° S display many of the unique features of this superfast spreading environment including abundant seamounts (the Rano Rahi Field), axial discontinuities, discontinuity migration, and abyssal hill variation. Along with a summary of the regional geology, these maps will provide a valuable reference for other sea-going programs on-and off-axis in this area, including the Mantle ELectromagnetic and Tomography (MELT) experiment.     

Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Pressure prediction in the Bullwinkle Basin through petrophysics and flow modeling (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico)

Reservoir pressures within the Bullwinkle minibasin (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico continental slope) increase at a hydrostatic gradient whereas pressures predicted from porosity within mudstones bounding these reservoirs increase at a lithostatic gradient: they are equal at a depth 1/3 of the way down from the crest of the structure. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state flow models demonstrate that bowl-shaped structures will have lower pressures than equivalent two-dimensional structures and that if a low permeability salt layer underlies the basin, the pressure is reduced. We conclude that at Bullwinkle, pressure is reduced due to an underlying salt body and the bowl-shape of the basin. A geometric approach to predict sandstone pressure is to assume that the reservoir pressure equals the area-weighted average of the mudstone pressure. When the mudstone pressure gradient is constant, as at Bullwinkle, the reservoir pressure equals the mudstone pressure at the average depth (centroid) of the reservoir.