Stochastic model-based methods for handling uncertainty in areal interpolation

Handling of uncertainty in the estimation of values from source areas to target areas poses a challenge in areal interpolation research. Stochastic model-based methods offer a basis for incorporating such uncertainty, but to date they have not been widely adopted by the GIS community. In this article, we propose one use of such methods based in the problem of interpolating count data from a source set of zones (parishes) to a more widely used target zone geography (postcode sectors). The model developed also uses ancillary statistical count data for a third set of areas nested within both source and target zones. The interpolation procedure was implemented within a Bayesian statistical framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, enabling us to take account of all sources of uncertainty included in the model. Distributions of estimated values at the target zone level are presented using both summary statistics and as individual realisations selected to illustrate the degree of uncertainty in the interpolation results. We aim to describe the use of such stochastic approaches in an accessible way and to highlight the need for quantifying estimation uncertainty arising in areal interpolation, especially given the implications arising when interpolated values are used in subsequent analyses of relationships.     

Soil Iodine Determination in Deccan Syneclise,India: Implications for Near Surface Geochemical Hydrocarbon Prospecting

The association of iodine with organic matter in sedimentary basins is well documented. High iodine concentration in soils overlying oil and gas fields and areas with hydrocarbon microseepage has been observed and used as a geochemical exploratory tool for hydrocarbons in a few studies. In this study, we measure iodine concentration in soil samples collected from parts of Deccan Syneclise in the west central India to investigate its potential application as a geochemical indicator for hydrocarbons. The Deccan Syneclise consists of rifted depositional sites with Gondwana–Mesozoic sediments up to 3.5 km concealed under the Deccan Traps and is considered prospective for hydrocarbons. The concentration of iodine in soil samples is determined using ICP-MS and the values range between 1.1 and 19.3 ppm. High iodine values are characteristic of the northern part of the sampled region. The total organic carbon (TOC) content of the soil samples range between 0.1 and 1.3%. The TOC correlates poorly with the soil iodine (r ² < 1), indicating a lack of association of iodine with the surficial organic matter and the possibility of interaction between the seeping hydrocarbons and soil iodine. Further, the distribution pattern of iodine compares well with two surface geochemical indicators: the adsorbed light gaseous hydrocarbons (methane through butane) and the propane-oxidizing bacterial populations in the soil. The integration of geochemical observations show the occurrence of elevated values in the northern part of the study area, which is also coincident with the presence of exposed dyke swarms that probably serve as conduits for hydrocarbon microseepage. The corroboration of iodine with existing geological, geophysical, and geochemical data suggests its efficacy as one of the potential tool in surface geochemical exploration of hydrocarbons. Our study supports Deccan Syneclise to be promising in terms of its hydrocarbon prospects.     

Revaluation of the natural-resource potential of Ukraine

We provide a rationale for the technique of revaluating the natural-resource potential which is built upon the natural crop yield of Ukrainian lands obtained, with the observance of rotation cropping and by implementing the complex of mechanical tillage operations without fertilizer application. An assessment is made of Ukraine’s natural-resource potential within the context of three physical-geographical countries, four zones, three subzones, and 14 krais.     

Influence of livestock on the regeneration of fodder trees along ephemeral rivers of Namibia

Faidherbia albida and Acacia erioloba (Mimosoideae) are important fodder trees for livestock and wildlife along the westward flowing ephemeral rivers of the Namib Desert. Together with other, mainly woody vegetation, F. albida and A. erioloba line these rivers and present a linear oasis in a resource poor environment. For centuries nomadic to semi-nomadic inhabitants seasonally utilised the resources of these ephemeral rivers to survive in the otherwise harsh desert environment. In the past decades, more permanent settlements were established along these rivers, with small stock subsistence farmers making a living from the available resources. Livestock (mainly goats) usually moves freely around, feeding on the available vegetation.This study investigated the influence of free moving animals on the regeneration and recruitment of F. albida and A. erioloba along the Kuiseb ephemeral river. It was found that a large numbers of recently emerged seedlings were removed soon after germination. In addition, tree densities of adult versus juvenile individuals differed in areas with large numbers of livestock. The overall height increase and health of juvenile plants were influenced negatively by browsing livestock. In general, browsing pressure differed spatially and was higher close to the main water channel.     

Surface energy and water vapor fluxes observed in a desert plantation in central Iran

Summertime observations of surface radiation budget, energy balance and atmospheric surface layer meteorology were made on an arid valley floor planted with Haloxylon aphyllum to combat desertification in central Iran. The surface microclimate is characterized and compared with other arid regions and the role of ‘desert greening’ on surface fluxes is considered. A high surface albedo (0.265) and large longwave radiation loss produced relatively low net radiation. Energy partitioning was dominated by sensible and ground heat fluxes with opposing diurnal asymmetry governed by strong diurnal variability in eddy diffusivity. The Bowen ratio was 2.53, which fell inside the range of other vegetated arid surfaces. Surface temperature gradients were strong both in the atmospheric surface layer and in the substrate, with consistent lapse conditions by day and inversions at night. The wind regime included a moderate daytime regional wind which displayed Coriolis turning and weaker nocturnal slope flows. Actual evapotranspiration (1 mm dy⁻¹) was only a small fraction of potential evapotranspiration. The diurnal pattern of AET indicates strong stomatal control. The desert greening effect of Haloxylon plantations provided atmospheric water and reduced sensible heat flux by up to 40%.     

Geomorphic Controls on Historical Channel Planform Changes on the Lower Pages River,Hunter Valley,Australia

Historical planform changes in a 14.7 km reach of the lower Pages River were determined to assess whether they were autogenic (inherent in the river regime) or allogenic (driven by external changes) in nature so as to better focus river management activities and river restoration works. A pattern metamorphosis or complete change in river morphology occurred during the February 1955 flood. The peak discharge of this event exceeded the slope and grain size (intrinsic) threshold for braiding, converting the narrow, slightly sinuous stream to a wide, braided-like river. Five subsequent intrinsic threshold-exceeding floods did not cause further bar development because an over-widened channel already existed. Autogenic channel planform changes included sinuosity variations due to lateral migration and pattern metamorphosis due to the exceedance of a discharge–slope–grain size geomorphic threshold. Allogenic channel planform changes included: (1) realignment/channel straightening and artificial cutoffs by river training works; (2) lateral migration by increased bank erodibility due to riparian vegetation clearing; (3) lateral migration by the operation of a transitive geomorphic threshold involving the onset of a flood-dominated regime after 1946 and increased catchment runoff after 1830 due to large-scale clearing of catchment vegetation; and (4) the occurrence of a large flood in February 1955. Multiple forcing factors have clearly caused historical channel planform changes of the lower Pages River, making the design of river management and restoration works a complex matter outside the scope of simple formulaic protocols.     

Effects of increased summer precipitation and N deposition on Mojave Desert populations of the biological crust moss Syntrichia caninervis

Climate change in the Mojave Desert (USA) may result in a greater intensity of summer (monsoon) rain events and greater atmospheric N deposition. Patches of the dominant biological crust moss Syntrichia caninervis were exposed to field treatments of low and high nitrogen supplementation, added summer rain, and combinations thereof, for a period of five years. In the lab, shoots were subjected to a moderate (single rapid-dry treatment) and a severe (double rapid-dry treatment) desiccation stress. Shoots were then hydrated and allowed to regenerate for 6 weeks on sterile sand. Shoots exhibited lower aboveground biomass from the +monsoon treatment, indicating carbon balance deficits under conditions of recurring summer rainfall. The low N treatment and the severe desiccation stress promoted shoot burning (chlorosis) and negatively affected regeneration responses. High N treatment, however, only adversely affected the resumption of apical meristematic growth. Summer irrigation and N application interacted to mitigate the effects of later protonemal emergence time, lower protonemal cover, and lower shoot numbers. Increased monsoonal frequency and higher N deposition as forecast for the northern Mojave Desert may result in declines in shoot biomass and reduced regenerational vigor in S. caninervis.     

Do free-ranging domestic goats show ‘landscapes of fear’? Patch use in response to habitat features and predator cues

One factor that influences foraging is predation risk. As a result, herbivores may not use landscapes uniformly due to spatial differences in perceived predation risk. Wild herbivores forage across these ‘landscapes of fear’; however, the extent to which domestic herbivores consider them is generally unknown. Using a grid of artificial food patches and measuring giving up densities (GUDs), we mapped landscapes of fear of free-ranging domestic goats on three substrates. In the first experiment, we related GUDs to landscape variables. Goats preferred feeding in open ground with firm substrate compared to a sandy riverbed or a rocky hillside. We suggest that differences relate to escape potential and the occurrence of ambush sites. Landscape variables that influenced feeding effort were patch visibility and plants next to a patch. In a second experiment, we increased predation risk by adding predator dung and urine into the habitats. In response, feeding effort declined across all three habitats. Furthermore, goats only responded to patch visibility and not plants next to the patches. Better sightlines increase predator detection and allow individuals to see group members. Our results indicate that predation risk influences the extent to which free-ranging domestic herbivores utilise landscapes.     

The geological evolution of southern McMurdo Sound — new evidence from a high-resolution aeromagnetic survey

Magnetic anomaly data are presented from a new helicopter-borne high-resolution aeromagnetic survey in southern McMurdo Sound. Anomaly data have been acquired at a common 305 m elevation above the McMurdo and southern McMurdo ice shelves and draped over the volcanic islands that pin them. The resulting anomaly patterns provide a significant advance in the understanding of the rift related geology beneath the floating ice shelves. More extensive Erebus Volcanic Province (McMurdo Volcanic Group) rocks are indicated along with a significant blanket of glaci-volcaniclastic sediment on the seafloor between the volcanic islands in southern McMurdo Sound. These glaci-volcaniclastic sediments are inferred to originate from former grounding of the southern McMurdo Ice Shelf as a marine ice sheet. A strong N–S fabric is also observed in the anomaly data suggesting that the rift structure observed in the Victoria Land basin persists to the south beneath the McMurdo and southern McMurdo ice shelves. W–N–W transfer faults identified within the Transantarctic Mountain rift flank to the west are not obvious in the aeromagnetic data set, implying that the 'Discovery Accommodation Zone' may be restricted to the region between a southward extension of the range bounding fault that marks the limit of the Victoria Land Basin and the right lateral offset in the Transantarctic Mountain front in southern Victoria Land.