Storminess and vulnerability along the Atlantic coastlines of Europe: analysis of storm records and of a greenhouse gases induced climate scenario

Identification of the distinctive circulation patterns of storminess on the Atlantic margin of Europe forms the main objective of this study; dealing with storm frequency, intensity and tracking. The climatology of the extratropical cyclones that affect this region has been examined for the period 1940–1998. Coastal meteorological data from Ireland to Spain have been linked to the cyclone history for the North Atlantic in the analysis of storm records for European coasts. The study examines the evolution in the occurrence of storms since the 1940s and also their relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Results indicate a seasonal shift in the wind climate, with regionally more severe winters and calmer summers established. This pattern appears to be linked to a northward displacement in the main North Atlantic cyclone track.

An experiment with the ECHAM4 A-GCM at high resolution (T106) has also been used to model the effect of a greenhouse gases induced warming climate on the climatology of coastal storms in the region. The experiment consists of (1), a 30-year control time-slice representing present-day equivalent CO₂ concentrations and (2), a 30-year perturbed period corresponding to a time when the radiative forcing has doubled in terms of equivalent CO₂ concentrations. The boundary conditions have been obtained from an atmosphere-ocean coupled OA-GCM simulation at low horizontal resolution. An algorithm was developed to allow the identification of individual cyclone movements in selected coastal zones. For most of the northern part of the study region, covering Ireland and Scotland, results describe the establishment by ca. 2060 of a tendency for fewer but more intense storms.

The impacts of these changes in storminess for the vulnerability of European Atlantic coasts are considered. For low-lying, exposed and ‘soft’ sedimentary coasts, as in Ireland, these changes in storminess are likely to result in significant localised increases in coastal erosion.     

Pressure prediction in the Bullwinkle Basin through petrophysics and flow modeling (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico)

Reservoir pressures within the Bullwinkle minibasin (Green Canyon 65, Gulf of Mexico continental slope) increase at a hydrostatic gradient whereas pressures predicted from porosity within mudstones bounding these reservoirs increase at a lithostatic gradient: they are equal at a depth 1/3 of the way down from the crest of the structure. Two- and three-dimensional steady-state flow models demonstrate that bowl-shaped structures will have lower pressures than equivalent two-dimensional structures and that if a low permeability salt layer underlies the basin, the pressure is reduced. We conclude that at Bullwinkle, pressure is reduced due to an underlying salt body and the bowl-shape of the basin. A geometric approach to predict sandstone pressure is to assume that the reservoir pressure equals the area-weighted average of the mudstone pressure. When the mudstone pressure gradient is constant, as at Bullwinkle, the reservoir pressure equals the mudstone pressure at the average depth (centroid) of the reservoir.     

Jason-1: Assessment of the System Performances

On 7 December 2001, Jason-1 was successfully launched by a Boeing Delta II rocket from the Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. The Jason-1 satellite will maintain the high accuracy altimeter service provided since 1992 by TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P), ensuring the continuity in observing and monitoring the Ocean Dynamics (intraseasonal to interannual changes, mean sea level, tides, etc.). Despite one-fourth the mass and power, the Jason-1 system has been designed to have basically the same performance as T/P, measuring sea surface topography at a centimetric level. This new CNES/NASA mission also provides near real-time data for sea state and ocean forecast. The first two months of the Jason-1 mission have been dedicated to the assessment of the overall system. The goals of this assessment phase were:

1. To assess the behavior of the spacecraft at the platform and payload levels (Jason-1 being the first program to call on the PROTEUS versatile multimission platform for Low and Medium Earth Orbit Missions developed in partnership between Alcatel Space and CNES);

2. To verify that platform performance requirements are met with respect to Jason-1 requirements;

3. To verify that payload instruments performance requirements evaluated at instrument level are met;

4. To assess the performance of the Jason-1 Ground System.

This article will display the main outputs of the assessment of the system. It will demonstrate that all the elements of the onboard and ground systems are within the specifications. Provision of data to the Jason-1 Science Working Team started at the end of March 2002. This is the goal of a six-month phase after closure of the initial assessment phase to derive the error budget of the system in terms of altimetry user products.     

Seasonal variation of pteropods from the Western Arabian Sea sediment trap

Sediment trap samples collected from the Western Arabian Sea yielded a rich assemblage of intact and non-living (opaque white) pteropod tests from a water depth of 919 m during January to September 1993. Nine species of pteropods were recorded, all (except one) displaying distinct seasonality in abundance, suggesting their response to changing hydrographical conditions influenced by the summer/winter monsoon cycle. Pteropod fluxes increased during the April–May peak of the intermonsoon, and reached maximum levels in the late phase of the southwest summer monsoon, probably due to the shallowing of the mixed layer depth. This shallowing, coupled with enhanced nutrient availability, provides ideal conditions for pteropod growth, also reflected in corresponding fluctuations in the flux of the foraminifer Globigerina bulloides. Pteropod/planktic foraminifer ratios displayed marked seasonal variations, the values increasing during the warmer months of April and May when planktic foraminiferal fluxes declined. The variation in fluxes of calcium carbonate, organic carbon and biogenic opal show positive correlations with fluxes of pteropods and planktic foraminifers. Calcium carbonate was the main contributor to the total particulate flux, especially during the SW monsoon. In the study area, pteropod flux variations are similar to the other flux patterns, indicating that they, too could be used as a potential tool for palaeoclimatic reconstruction of the recent past.     

Marine tether dynamics: retrieval and deployment from a heaving platform

A tether management system of a winch module in a marine environment is proposed. For the purpose of this study the subsea body is considered as a mass attached at the free end of a long tether which is wrapped around a circular drum controlled by an external torque. The winch is considered mounted on a heaving platform. The effect of the heaving platform on the motions of the drum, tether and attached mass are studied with respect to the longitudinal vibrations of the tether in one dimension. The hydrodynamic effects are considered on the deployed portion of the tether and the tethered mass, both of which are assumed submerged in otherwise still water. The resulting nonlinear system of equations of motion is developed and solved numerically for an example of a marine tether system. The effect of the tether extensibility on the operation threshold of the system is identified. Comparison with an inextensible tether case is provided. The numerical results and their analysis for the retrieval/deployment of the system are presented.     

Transient fluid motion due to the forced horizontal oscillations of a vertical cylinder

The problem of the forced horizontal oscillations of a vertical cylinder extending throughout the fluid depth is considered on the basis of the linearised theory of water waves. A new integral form is given for the frequency-domain solution and the procedure is then used to obtain an explicit time-domain solution.