Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

A new pattern for the north–south asymmetry of sunspots

We study the solar cycle evolution during the last 8 solar cycles using a vectorial sunspot area called the LA (longitudinal asymmetry) parameter. This is a useful measure of solar activity in which the stochastic, longitudinally evenly distributed sunspot activity is reduced and which therefore emphasizes the more systematic, longitudinally asymmetric sunspot activity. Interesting differences are found between the LA parameter and the more conventional sunspot activity indices like the (scalar) sunspot area and the sunspot number. E.g., cycle 19 is not the highest cycle according to LA. We have calculated the separate LA parameters for the northern and southern hemisphere and found a systematic dipolar-type oscillation in the dominating hemisphere during high solar activity times which is reproduced from cycle to cycle. We have analyzed this oscillation during cycles 16–22 by a superposed epoch method using the date of magnetic reversal in the southern hemisphere as the zero epoch time. According to our analysis, the oscillation starts by an excess of the northern LA value in the ascending phase of the solar cycle which lasts for about 2.3 years. Soon after the maximum northern dominance, the southern hemisphere starts dominating, reaching its minimum some 1.2–1.7 years later. The period of southern dominance lasts for about 1.6 years and ends, on an average, slightly before the end of magnetic reversal.     

Grain boundary diffusion in enstatite

We have investigated grain boundary diffusion rates in enstatite by heating single crystals of quartz packed in powdered San Carlos olivine (Mg_0.90Fe_0.10)₂SiO₄ at controlled oxygen fugacities in the range 10^?5.7 to 10^?8.7?atm and temperatures from 1350° to 1450?°C for times from 5 to 100?h at 1?atm total pressure. Following the experiments, the thickness of the coherent polycrystalline reaction rim of pyroxene that had formed between the quartz and olivine was measured using backscatter scanning imaging in the electron microprobe. Quantitative microprobe analysis indicated that the composition of this reaction phase is (Mg_0.92Fe_0.08)₂Si₂O₆. The rate of growth of the pyroxene increases with increasing temperature, is independent of the oxygen fugacity, and is consistent with a parabolic rate law, indicating that the growth rate is controlled by ionic diffusion through the pyroxene rim. Microstructural observations and platinum marker experiments suggest that the reaction phase is formed at the olivine-pyroxene interface, and is therefore controlled by the diffusion of silicon and oxygen. The parabolic rate constants determined from the experiments were analyzed in terms of the oxide activity gradient across the rim to yield mean effective diffusivities for the rate-limiting ionic species, assuming bulk transport through the pyroxene layer. These effective diffusivities are faster than the lattice diffusivities for the slowest species (silicon) calculated from creep experiments, but slower than measured lattice diffusivities for oxygen in enstatite. Thus, silicon grain boundary diffusion is most likely to be the rate-limiting process in the growth of the pyroxene rims. Also, as oxygen transport through the pyroxene rims must be faster than silicon transport, diffusion of oxygen along the grain boundaries must be faster than through the lattice. The grain boundary diffusivity for silicon in orthopyroxenite is then given by D¯gbSiδ=(3.3±3.0)×10^?9f0.0O₂e^?400±65/RT?m³s^?1, where the activation energy for diffusion is in kJ/mol, and δ is the grain boundary width in m. Calculated growth rates for enstatite under these conditions are significantly slower than predicted by an extrapolation from similar experiments performed at 1000?°C under high pressure (hydrous) conditions by Yund and Tullis (1992), perhaps due to water-enhancement of diffusion in their experiments.     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

An experimental study in forming a long synthetic aperture at sea

The testing of a synthetic aperture technique, the ETAM algorithm, is extended and its performance for CW pseudorandom signals and broadband ship noise is examined. The results show the limitations of the technique and are of special interest for operational systems development. In the CW experiments, the transmitted signal was generated with high temporal coherence, and loss of the spatial and temporal coherence of the received signal was introduced only by the medium and the stability of the towed array. In the experiments that included the pseudorandom signal and the ship noise, the temporal coherence of the transmitted signals was deliberately chosen to be poor in order to study the effects and the performance of this algorithm with broadband signals. The related experimental results show that for received signals, which have their segments over the synthesizing period highly cross-correlated, a synthetic aperture array gain was achieved that corresponds to the length of an equivalent fully populated array     

A techno-economic comparison of power systems for autonomousunderwater vehicles

This paper compares lead-acid batteries, sodium-sulfur batteries, solid polymer fuel cells and closed-cycle diesel engines for autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) applications. The service is described in terms of a parametric mission and life cycle. A generic AUV is used as a basis for comparison. Power systems are evaluated by two criteria: (1) submerged endurance capability and (2) life cycle cost. This study determines categories of service for which each power system is preferred. The solid polymer fuel cell can provide greater submerged endurance than other power systems examined. For extremely long duration AUV missions, the fuel cell is the required system, indicating a possible market niche for today's fuel cell technology. Considering cost projections for each power system, the results also show that the SPFC can become cost-competitive with conventional technologies, particularly for services characterized by high levels of utilization     

An Early Investigation Of The Striated Tail Of Comet Hale-Bopp (C/1995 O1)

The Sekanina-Farrell particle fragmentation model for the striated tails of dust comets is successfully applied to two images of comet Hale-Bopp to study the motions of 12 striae in a time span of March 12–15, 1997. There is evidence for recurring outbursts with a periodicity of 11^h21^m, consistent with results based on analysis of dust jets. The ejecta in all the striae appear to have been released from one source on the nucleus between the end of January and the second half of February 1997, some 60 to 40 days before perihelion. The parent particles were subjected to a radiation pressure acceleration of β_p ≃ 0.55 and their fragmentation lifetimes in 11 of the 12 striae were practically constant and equal to 13–15 days, when normalized to 1 AU from the Sun. Brief analysis of Watanabe et al.'s measurements of striae on their images from March 5–9, 1997 shows even shorter fragmentation lifetimes for the parent particles, mostly about 7–11 days at1 AU. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented