Climate change and snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps

This study uses a model of snow-cover duration, an observed climate data set for the Australian alpine area, and a set of regional climate-change scenarios to assess quantitatively how changes in climate may affect snow cover in the Australian Alps. To begin, a regional interannual climate data set of high spatial resolution is prepared for input to the snow model and the resulting simulated interannual and spatial variations in snow-cover duration are assessed and compared with observations. The model provides a reasonable simulation of the sensitivities of snow-cover duration to changes in temperature and precipitation in the Australian Alps, although its performance is poorer at sites highly marginal for snow cover. (In a separate comparison, the model also performs well for sites in the European Alps.) The input climate data are then modified in line with scenarios of regional climate change based on the results of five global climate models run in enhanced greenhouse experiments. The scenarios are for the years 2030 and 2070 and allow for uncertainty associated with projecting future emissions of greenhouse gases and with estimating the sensitivity of the global climate system to enhanced greenhouse forcing. Attention focuses on the climate changes most favourable (best-case scenario) and least favourable (worst-case scenario) for snow cover amongst the range of climate changes in the scenarios. Under the best case scenario for 2030, simulated average snow-cover duration and the frequency of years of more than 60 days cover decline at all sites considered. However, at the higher sites (e.g., more than 1700 m) the effect is not very marked. For the worst case scenario, a much more dramatic decline in snow conditions is simulated. At higher sites, simulated average snow cover duration roughly halves by 2030 and approaches zero by 2070. At lower sites (around 1400 m), near zero average values are simulated by 2030 (compared to durations of around 60 days for current climate).These simulated changes, ranging between the best and worst case, are likely to be indicative of how climate change will affect natural snow-cover duration in the Australian Alps. However, note that the model does not allow directly for changes in the frequency and intensity of snow-bearing circulation systems, nor do the climate-change scenarios allow possible changes in interannual variability (particularly that due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and local topographical effects not resolved by global climate models. The simulated changes in snow cover are worthy of further consideration in terms of their implications for the ski industry and tourism, water resources and hydroelectric power, and land-use management and planning.68 Barada Crescent, Aranda ACT 2614, Australia.     

Global comparison of the regional rainfall results of enhanced greenhouse coupled and mixed layer ocean experiments: Implications for climate change scenario development

The extent of agreement amongst current global climate models (GCMs) on the global pattern of rainfall change simulated under enhanced greenhouse conditions is assessed. We consider the results of five experiments which use a simple mixed layer ocean formulation and five which use a fully dynamic ocean model (coupled experiments). For many regions of the northern hemisphere there is strong agreement amongst both mixed layer and coupled experiments on the sign of simulated rainfall change. However, in the southern hemisphere there are large, and apparently systematic, differences between the coupled and mixed layer experiments. In particular, whereas the mixed layer experiments agree on simulated rainfall increase in summer in the tropics and subtropics of the Australian sector, the coupled experiments agree (although more weakly) on rainfall decreases. These differences appear to relate to the much reduced warming simulated by the coupled experiments in the high latitudes of the southern hemisphere. However, recent oceanographie evidence suggests that this suppressed warming may be considerably overestimated. We conclude therefore that despite the in-principle advantages of coupled models, it may be too soon to base some regionally specific climate change scenarios solely on the results of coupled experiments.     

Lidar observations of turbulent vortex shedding by an isolated topographic feature

Scanning measurements by a single wavelength lidar (1.06 m) were made downwind of the Pt. Sur rock, an isolated hill (height 110 m) along the California coast. Turbulent eddies (approximate diameter 50 m) were observed detaching from a stationary aerosol feature above the rock and moving downwind. Under conditions with a high Froude number [1.8], the Strouhal number [0.22] of vortex shedding was close to that observed in tank experiments with a Reynolds number of 200.     

The relationship between zooplankton,conductivity and lake-water ionic composition in 111 lakes from the Interior Plateau of British Columbia,Canada

Zooplankton collected from vertical net tows were related to the environmental variables from 98 lakes from the Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Canonical correspondence analysis showed that both salinity and ionic composition (pH and Mg) of the lake-water made major and significant contributions to the first two ordination axes (=0.42 and 0.11 respectively,P<0.05). BothArtemia franciscana andMoina hutchinsoni had their highest relative abundance in meso-hypersaline waters. However,Artemia franciscana preferred waters that were higher in Mg and Ca, whileMoina hutchinsoni was found in waters that were lower in Mg and Ca. Similarly, at intermediate salinities,Daphnia pulex and the calanoid copepods preferred waters slightly lower in Mg and Ca, whereasCeriodaphnia laticaudata andSimocephalus spp. were relatively more common in waters higher in Mg and Ca. Because the freshest lakes studied varied much less in ionic composition, the zooplankton in these lakes did not show a preference to ionic composition. As expected, multi-generic groups, such as the calanoid copepods, cyclopoid copepods and nauplii, had wider tolerances to conductivity than groups identified to lower taxonomic levels. Significant weighted-averaging regression and calibration models of conductivity were developed based on zooplankton species composition from the study lakes (r ²=0.56,P<0.05). Samples composed largely of multi-generic taxa yielded the worst estimates of salinity in the reconstruction model. This study suggests that zooplankton community composition may be developed into a useful proxy for paleosalinity reconstruction.     

Variability of surface roughness and turbulence intensities at a coastal site in India

Surface-layer features with different prevailing wind directions for two distinct seasons (Southwest Monsoon and Northeast Monsoon) on the west coast of India are studied using data obtained from tower-based sensors at a site located about 500 m from the coast. Only daytime runs have been used for the present analysis. The surface boundary-layer fluxes have been estimated using the eddy correlation method. The surface roughnessz ₀ obtained using the stability-corrected wind profiles (Paulson, 1970) has been found to be low for the Southwest monsson season. For the other season,z ₀ is relatively high. The drag coefficientC _D varies with height in the NE monsoon season but not in the season with lowz ₀. This aspect is reflected in the wind profiles for the two seasons and is discussed in detail. The scaling behaviour of friction velocityu _* and the turbulence intensity of longitudinal, lateral and vertical winds _u, _v and _w, respectively) are further examined to study their dependence on fetch. Our study shows that for the non-dimensional case, _u/u_* and _v/u_* do not show any surface roughness dependence in either season. On the other hand, for _w/u_* for the season with lowz ₀, the values are seen to agree well with that of Panofskyet al. (1977) for homogeneous terrain whereas for the other season with highz ₀, the results seem to conform more to the values observed by Smedman and Högström (1983) for coastal terrain. The results are discussed in the light of observations by other investigators.     

Mixed-layer characteristics as related to the monsoon climate of New Delhi,India

Annual variations of mixed-layer characteristics at New Delhi, India have been studied for a weak monsoon (1987) and a strong monsoon (1988) year. In the weak monsoon year (1987), the maximum mixing depthh _max was found to have a value of around 3000 m during the pre-monsoon, less than 2000 m during the summer monsoon, around 2000 m during the post-monsoon, and less than 1000 m in the winter season. For the strong monsoon year (1988),h _max values were less than 1987 values for comparable periods throughout the year. The seasonal and yearly differences ofh _max were explained by the surface energy balance and potential temperature gradient at a time close to sunrise. According to the spatial patterns of obtained by an objective analysis of the 850 to 700 hPa layers. mixed-layer characteristics obtained at New Delhi are representative of the north and central regions of India.     

Sediment oxygen profiles in a super-oxygenated antarctic lake

Perennially ice-covered lakes are found in the McMurdo Dry Valleys of southern Victoria Land, Antarctica. In contrast to temperate lakes that have diurnal photic periods, antarctic (and arctic) lakes have a yearly photic period. An unusual feature of the antarctic lakes is the occurrence of O2 at supersaturated levels in certain portions of the water column. Here we report the first sediment O2 profiles obtained using a microelectrode from a perennially ice-covered antarctic lake. Sediment cores collected in January and October 1987 from Lake Hoare in Taylor Valley show oxygenation down to 15, and in some cases, 25 cm. The oxygenation of sediments several centimeters below the sediment-water interface is atypical for lake sediments and may be characteristic of perennially ice-covered lakes. There is a significant difference between the observed January and October sediment O2 profiles. Several explanations may account for the difference, including seasonality. A time-dependent model is presented which tests the feasibility of a seasonal cycle resulting from the long photoperiod and benthic primary production in sediments overlain by a highly oxygenated water column.     

Radiocarbon redating of contaminated samples from a tropical volcano: the Mansion ‘Series’ of St Kitts,West Indies

Heavy rainfall and dense vegetation on tropical volcanoes produce abundant carbonized wood in pyroclastic deposits, in addition to easy contamination of this wood by root systems and soluble humic material. Because the physical nature of the charcoal varies, some samples are more prone to contamination. Two independent studies of the same volcano, Mt Liamuiga on St Kitts in the Lesser Antilles, sometimes using samples from the same carbonized tree, yielded a systematic difference in radiocarbon ages. An exchange of samples and a re-investigation of three physically distinct types of charcoal yielded the following results. Rare, hard, dense charcoal, lacking contamination, which had yielded a spurious age of 2860 years bp, was redated at 1845±58 years bp. Common soft, friable charcoal with good cellular structure proved to be susceptible to contamination. A field decontamination technique utilized by one group seems significant as it yields older ages than when only routine laboratory pre-treatment was used, indicating that the latter technique only partly removes the dried and hard residue produced by the decomposition of modern plant rootlets. A previous date of 24870 years bp obtained from powdery charcoal in a horizon beneath the Mansion Series contradicted ages older than 41000 years bp from common friable charcoal in the lower Mansion Series. The soft powdery charcoal was re-investigated using a sample collected a few centimeters from the original, although field decontamination of this sample was not possible, more extensive laboratory treatment yielded an age of ca. 43000 years bp, again proving that routine laboratory pretreatments are inadequate. A revised geochronology for the Mansion Series is described and a cautionary discussion is presented for the benefit of investigators using radiocarbon ages to date volcanic deposits.     

Dynamics of the plasmasphere in the dusk sector as observed in the outer ionosphere

Summary Direct measurements of the thermal plasma parameters in the topside ionosphere reveal variations of the plasmasphere boundary in the dusk sector. The ACTIVE satellite's near-polar orbits at altitudes of 500 – 1800 km around winter solstice 1989 were used to study the bulge region of the plasmasphere during intervals with different levels of geomagnetic agitation. The narrow, sharply defined trough in electron concentration corresponding to the plasmapause under quiet conditions situated at L = 6 – 7 moved to lower L-values with increasing geomagnetic activity. This narrow trough can be found in all main ion constituents. During periods of moderate geomagnetic activity, following the onset of a weak magnetic storm, a portion of the plasmaspheric bulge region was separated from the main plasmaspheric body. This can be seen in the outer ionosphere as an inner narrow trough at lower L-value. Troughs in light ions need no longer coincide with this in electron concentration. He⁺ is the most sensitive constituent reflecting the dusk sector plasmaspheric situation at this altitude.Dedicated to the Memory of Professor Karel P     

Blind prediction of the site effects at Ashigara Valley,Japan, and its comparison with reality

Weak and strong ground motions were numerically predicted for three stations of the Ashigara Valley test site. The prediction was based on the records from a rock-outcrop station, one weak-motion record from a surface-sediments station, and the standard geotechnical model. The data were provided by the Japanese Working Group on the Effects of Surface Geology as a part of an international experiment. The finite-difference method for SH waves in a 2-D linear viscoelastic medium (a causalQ model) was employed.Comparison with the real records shows that at two stations the predictions fit better than at the third one. Strangely, the two better predictions were for stations situated at larger distances from the reference rock station (one station was on the surface, the other in a borehole). The strong ground motion (the peak acceleration of about 200 cm s^–2) was not predicted qualitatively worse than the weak motion (8 cm s^–2). A less sophisticated second prediction (not submitted during the experiment), in which we did not attempt to fit the available weak-motion record at the sedimentary station, agrees with the reality significantly better.