An operational multiscale system for hazards prediction, mapping, and response

By definition, a crisis is a situation that requires assistance to be managed. Hence, response to a crisis involves the merging of local and non-local emergency response personnel. In this situation, it is critical that each participant: (1) know the roles and responsibilities of each of the other participants; (2) know the capabilities of each of the participants; and (3) have a common basis for action. For many types of natural disasters, this entails having a common operational picture of the unfolding events, including detailed information on the weather, both current and forecasted, that may impact on either the emergency itself or on response activities. The Consequences Assessment Tool Set (CATS) is a comprehensive package of hazard prediction models and casualty and damage assessment tools that provides a linkage between a modeled or observed effect and the attendant consequences for populations, infrastructure, and resources, and, hence, provides the common operational picture for emergency response. The Operational Multiscale Environment model with Grid Adaptivity (OMEGA) is an atmospheric simulation system that links the latest methods in computational fluid dynamics and high-resolution gridding technologies with numerical weather prediction to provide specific weather analysis and forecast capability that can be merged into the geographic information system framework of CATS. This paper documents the problem of emergency response as an end-to-end system and presents the integrated CATS–OMEGA system as a prototype of such a system that has been used successfully in a number of different situations.     

Drought and institutional adaptation in the Great Plains of Alberta and Saskatchewan, 1914–1939

Agriculture in the southern Great Plains of Canada has been particularly vulnerable to prolonged episodes of drought. Using climate data and a precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration index, the extent of the region’s exposure to drought is examined. Between 1914 and 1917, the Dry Belt was particularly vulnerable to drought, whereas after 1928, a much larger region known as the Palliser Triangle covering most of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan was much more exposed to drought. These droughts provoked major institutional adaptation, in particular the establishment of the Special Areas Board by the Government of Alberta, and the creation of the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration by the Government of Canada. Both organizations have proved to be relatively permanent public adaptations to the natural hazard of drought in the region. Moreover, these earlier experiences with prolonged drought as well as institution-building may be of value in helping the residents of the Palliser Triangle adapt to predicted climate changes in the future as well as anticipate some of the barriers to effective institutional adaptation.     

Deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and their influence on consequent mass movements (case studies from the highest part of the Czech Carpathians)

Gravitational spreading of mountain ridges displays primary disequilibrium of flysch mountain areas of the Czech Carpathians. The progression of various types of mass movements is a product of long-term ridge disintegration and is predisposed by the geological structure of the area and the upper Tertiary-Quaternary morphogenesis of the mountain area. Deep-seated slope deformations are spatially interconnected by the occurrence of some other types of slope deformations (e.g. debris flows, debris slides, slumps, rock avalanches, etc.), which pose a considerable risk for the existence of human society. An important causative factor in these dynamically developing hazardous processes is, among other factors, the way in which land has been used in the last three centuries. Therefore, the occurrence of various types of slope deformations is studied in terms of their relation to deep-seated gravitational deformations and in terms of other limiting factors (structural geological, morphological and climatic factors, manmade impacts, etc.). The paper presents several case studies of slope deformations (Velká Čantoryje Mt, Lysá hora Mt, Ropice Mt and Smrk Mt) in the area of the Outer Carpathians within the territory of the Czech Republic and also adverts to some consequences in terms of the socioeconomic structure of the landscape.     

Impact of lightning on organic matter-rich soils: influence of soil grain size and organic matter content on underground fires

A detailed study was carried out on a piece of land that had been struck by lightning during the violent rainstorm that raged over the Island of S?o Miguel (Azores Archipelago) in late October 2006. Temperature and gas measurements (CO₂, CO, H₂S and CH₄) were performed in four study trenches, dug in an area of ∼3 m², where an underground fire had been initiated by the impact with a lightning stroke, followed by the emission of a column of gases and smoke. The soil under study was originally a well-pedogenized about 80 cm thick bed, made of volcanic clayey to silty tephra fallouts and contained 5.5–9.7% of organic matter. The underground fire was monitored for one week and revealed a peak release of 404 ppm CO and 3.4% CO₂ originating from a horizon located about 45 cm under the soil surface. Measurements of temperature, performed one week after the impact, indicated a maximum value of 326°C inside the soil, while 516.5°C were measured on the surface of a lava block interred about 20 cm under the surface. Subsequently, a stratigraphic and sedimentologic study proved the role of the grain-size of the soil and of the organic matter content of the different horizons of the impact area, in determining the ratio between anoxic/oxidised combustion conditions and in the progress of the process itself. It was also noticed that combustion was not total all over in the soil bed and that the process had slightly migrated toward SW during the observation period. The combustion process went on for about ten days, in spite of several other violent rainstorms, until it was artificially extinguished through the excavations made to obtain study trenches. This particular circumstance evidenced the potential natural hazard represented by this kind of atmospheric event, especially in a land where the volcanic nature of the soil may easily mislead inexperienced observers and, consequently, delay proper action.     

Identifying China’s leading world city: a network approach

This paper reports our research on China’s world cities. Formal network analysis of air passenger linkages for recent years among China’s most populous cities and among many of the world’s largest cities allows us to identify the country’s leading world city from among the leading Mainland candidates, Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou. We theorize our findings about China’s world cities in relation to both global forces (and China’s increasing entanglement with them) and the policies and actions of the national state. We examine the national and global urban network through a longitudinal, two-level analysis of airline passenger travel for four time points between about 1990 and 2005. We show that Beijing was China’s leading world city at the beginning of the time period, a status it lost nationally in as early as 1995, and then globally 10 years later. On the other hand Shanghai became China’s leading world city, and it acquired this status first nationally in 2000, and then globally in 2005. The changing status of the Chinese capital corresponds to the country’s increasing involvement with the capitalist world economy. Shanghai’s ascendance as the leading world city in China may indicate that global forces have come to play an increasingly important role relative to that of the developmental state.

Biaxial test simulations using a packing of polygonal particles

The mechanical response of cohesionless granular materials under monotonic loading is studied by performing molecular dynamic simulations. The diversity of shapes of soil grains is modelled by using randomly generated convex polygons as granular particles. Results of the biaxial test obtained for dense and loose media show that samples achieve the same void ratio at large strains independent of their initial density state. This limit state resembles the so‐called critical state of soil mechanics, except for some stress fluctuations, which remain for large deformations. These fluctuations are studied at the micro‐mechanical level, by following the evolution of the co‐ordination number, force chains and the fraction of the sliding contacts of the sample. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of naturally acidified irrigation water on agricultural volcanic soils. The case of Asembagus, Java, Indonesia

Acid water from the Banyuputih river (pH  3.5) is used for the irrigation of agricultural land in the Asembagus coastal area (East Java, Indonesia), with harmful consequences for rice yields. The river water has an unusual composition which is caused by seepage from the acidic Kawah Ijen crater lake into the river. This unique irrigation setting allows the study of soil acidification in situ. This paper assesses the effects of volcanogenically contaminated irrigation water on the chemical properties of the agricultural soils.The changes in soil properties were evaluated by comparing samples taken from the topsoil and sub-soil (1–3 m depth) from areas irrigated with acid water and areas irrigated with neutral water. The field survey thus resulted in four soil categories. Bulk soil composition, organic matter content, moisture content and particle size distribution were determined. Reactive phases were quantified with the selective extractions 1 M KCl, 0.1 M Na-pyrophosphate and 0.2 M acid ammonium oxalate (AAO).By comparing the four soil categories it is shown that the use of the naturally polluted irrigation water has had a large influence on the chemical composition of the topsoil. The composition of the soil solution has changed over the entire investigated soil profile. Furthermore the acid irrigation water has strongly modified the composition of the reactive phases, extracted as KCl, pyrophosphate, and AAO extractable elements, and also the bulk soil composition has been significantly modified. Overall this has resulted in the net dissolution of some elements and the net precipitation of others. The changes in the reactive phases and bulk soil composition are only apparent in the topsoil (0–20 cm) but not in the deeper soil.     

Geostatistical estimation of chemical contamination in stream sediments: The case study of Vale das Gatas mine (northern Portugal)

Based on an environmental geochemistry case study carried out in the neighbourhood of a W–Sn abandoned mine, the pollution in stream sediments was modelled through a Global Contamination Index. Such an index permits one to summarize the combination of deleterious elements in a single variable, obtained by the projection of samples onto the first axis of a PCASD (Principal Components Analysis of Standardized Data) applied to the entire n × p matrix containing the available concentrations of p = 16 elements in the set of n = 220 collected samples.In order to provide a sound basis for a coherent planning of the remediation process which will be put in operation in the affected area, it is necessary to balance the costs of reclaiming with the probabilities of exceeding the upper limits accepted for concentrations of environmentally harmful elements in sediments. Given these limits, they are back-transformed in the index values, providing a practical threshold between ‘clean’ and ‘contaminated’ samples. On the other hand, the minimum dimension of the cell to be reclaimed is restrained by the selected remediation process to be applied in the affected area. Hence, to meet the constraints of such a remediation process, it is required to estimate the probabilities of exceeding the index threshold in technologically meaningful sub-areas. For this end, the Indicator Block Kriging technique was applied, producing a series of maps where sub-areas to be reclaimed can be spotted for different probability levels. These maps, on which the decision making remediation agency can rely for its cost-benefit analysis, take into account both the spatial structure of ‘clean’ vs. ‘contaminated’ samples and the constraints of the reclaiming process.     

Integration and magnitude homogenization of the Egyptian earthquake catalogue

The aim of the present work is to compile and update a catalogue of the instrumentally recorded earthquakes in Egypt, with uniform and homogeneous source parameters as required for the analysis of seismicity and seismic hazard assessment. This in turn requires a detailed analysis and comparison of the properties of different available sources, including the distribution of events with time, the magnitude completeness, and the scaling relations between different kinds of magnitude reported by different agencies. The observational data cover the time interval 1900–2004 and an area between 22°–33.5° N and 25°–36° E. The linear regressions between various magnitude types have been evaluated for different magnitude ranges. Using the best linear relationship determined for each available pair of magnitudes, as well as those identified between the magnitudes and the seismic moment, we convert the different magnitude types into moment magnitudes M _W, through a multi-step conversion process. Analysis of the catalogue completeness, based on the M _W thus estimated, allows us to identify two different time intervals with homogeneous properties. The first one (1900–1984) appears to be complete for M _W ≥ 4.5, while the second one (1985–2004) can be considered complete for magnitudes M _W ≥ 3.