Late quaternary paleoclimatic reconstructions for interior Alaska based on paleolake-level data and hydrologic models

Hydrologic models are developed for two lakes in interior Alaska to determine quantitative estimates of precipitation over the past 12,500 yrs. Lake levels were reconstructed from core transects for these basins, which probably formed prior to the late Wisconsin. Lake sediment cores indicate that these lakes were shallow prior to 12,500 yr B.P. and increased in level with some fluctuation until they reached their modern levels 4,000-8,000 yr B.P. Evaporation (E), evapotranspiration (ET), and precipitation (P) were adjusted in a water-balance model to determine solutions that would maintain the lakes at reconstructed levels at key times in the past (12,500, 9,000 and 6,000 yr B.P.). Similar paleoclimatic solutions can be obtained for both basins for these times. Results indicate that P was 35-75% less than modern at 12,500 yr B.P., 25-45% less than modern at 9,000 yr B.P. and 10-20% less than modern at 6,000 yr B.P. Estimates for E and ET in the past were based on modern studies of vegetation types indicated by fossil pollen assemblages. Although interior Alaska is predominantly forested at the present, pollen analyses indicate tundra vegetation prior to about 12,000 yr B.P. The lakes show differing sensitivities to changing hydrologic parameters; sensitivity depends on the ratio of lake area (AL) to drainage basin (DA) size. This ratio also changed over time as lake level and lake area increased. Smaller AL to DA ratios make a lake more sensitive to ET, if all other factors are constant.     

Pockmarks on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar: formation from overpressured shallow contourite gas reservoirs and internal wave action during the last glacial sea-level lowstand?

Integrating novel and published swath bathymetry (3,980 km²), as well as chirp and high-resolution 2D seismic reflection profiles (2,190 km), this study presents the mapping of 436 pockmarks at water depths varying widely between 370 and 1,020 m on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar. On the Atlantic side in the south-eastern Gulf of Cádiz near the Camarinal Sill, 198 newly discovered pockmarks occur in three well localized and separated fields: on the upper slope (n=14), in the main channel of the Mediterranean outflow water (MOW, n=160), and on the huge contourite levee of the MOW main channel (n=24) near the well-known TASYO field. These pockmarks vary in diameter from 60 to 919 m, and are sub-circular to irregularly elongated or lobate in shape. Their slope angles on average range from 3° to 25°. On the Mediterranean side of the strait on the Ceuta Drift of the western Alborán Basin, where pockmarks were already known to occur, 238 pockmarks were identified and grouped into three interconnected fields, i.e. a northern (n=34), a central (n=61) and a southern field (n=143). In the latter two fields the pockmarks are mainly sub-circular, ranging from 130 to 400 m in diameter with slope angles averaging 1.5° to 15°. In the northern sector, by contrast, they are elongated up to 1,430 m, probably reflecting MOW activity. Based on seismo-stratigraphic interpretation, it is inferred that most pockmarks formed during and shortly after the last glacial sea-level lowstand, as they are related to the final erosional discontinuity sealed by Holocene transgressive deposits. Combining these findings with other existing knowledge, it is proposed that pockmark formation on either side of the Strait of Gibraltar resulted from gas and/or sediment pore-water venting from overpressured shallow gas reservoirs entrapped in coarse-grained contourites of levee deposits and Pleistocene palaeochannel infillings. Venting was either triggered or promoted by hydraulic pumping associated with topographically forced internal waves. This mechanism is analogous to the long-known effect of tidal pumping on the dynamics of unit pockmarks observed along the Norwegian continental margin.     

Origin and composition of fluid responsible for metasomatic processes in shear zones of the Bolshie Keivy tectonic nappe,baltic shield: Carbon isotope composition of graphite

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Subduction-related mafic to felsic magmatism in the Malayer–Boroujerd plutonic complex,western Iran

The Malayer–Boroujerd plutonic complex (MBPC) in western Iran, consists of a portion of a magmatic arc built by the northeast verging subduction of the Neo-Tethys plate beneath the Central Iranian Microcontinent (CIMC). Middle Jurassic-aged felsic magmatic activity in MBPC is manifested by I-type and S-type granites. The mafic rocks include gabbroic intrusions and dykes and intermediate rocks are dioritic dykes and minor intrusions, as well as mafic microgranular enclaves (MMEs). MBPC Jurassic-aged rocks exhibit arc-like geochemical signatures, as they are LILE- and LREE-enriched and HFSE- and HREE-depleted and display negative Nb–Ta anomalies. The gabbro dykes and intrusions originated from metasomatically enriched garnet-spinel lherzolite [Degree of melting (f_mel) ~ 15%] and exhibit negative Nd and positive to slightly negative ε_Hf(T) (+ 3.0 to ? 1.6). The data reveal that evolution of Middle Jurassic magmatism occurred in two stages: (1) deep mantle-crust interplay zone and (2) the shallow level upper crustal magma chamber. The geochemical and isotopic data, as well as trace element modeling, indicate the parent magma for the MBPC S-type granites are products of upper crustal greywacke (f_mel: 0.2), while I-type granites formed by partial melting of amphibolitic lower crust (f_mel: 0.25) and mixing with upper crustal greywacke melt in a shallow level magma chamber [Degree of mixing (f_mix): 0.3]. Mixing between andesitic melt leaving behind a refractory dense cumulates during partial crystallization of mantle-derived magma and lower crustal partial melt most likely produced MMEs (f_mix: 0.2). However, enriched and moderately variable ε_Nd(T) (? 3.21 to ? 4.33) and high (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)_i (0.7085–0.7092) in dioritic intrusions indicate that these magmas are likely experienced assimilation of upper crustal materials. The interpretations of magmatic activity in the MBPC is consistent with the role considered for mantle-derived magma as heat and mass supplier for initiation and evolution of magmatism in continental arc setting, elsewhere.     

Oscillations of galactic cosmic rays and solar indices before the arrival of relativistic solar protons

Using modern wavelet analysis techniques, we have made an attempt to search for oscillations of intensity of galactic cosmic rays (GCR), sunspot numbers (SS) and magnitudes of coronal index (CI) implying that the time evolution of those oscillations may serve as a precursor of Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) of solar cosmic rays (SCR). From total number of 70 GLEs registered in 1942–2006, the four large events — 23 February 1956, 14 July 2000, 28 October 2003, and 20 January 2005 — have been chosen for our study. By the results of our analysis, it was shown that a frequency of oscillations of GCR decreases as time approaches to the event day. We have also studied a behaviour of common periodicities of GCR and SCR within the time interval of individual GLE. The oscillations of GLE occurrence rate (OR) at different stages of the solar activity (SA) cycle is of special interest. We have found some common periodicities of SS and CI in the range of short (2.8, 5.2, 27 and 60 days), medium (0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.3, 1.8 and 3.2 years) and long (4.6 and 11.0 years) periods. Short and medium periodicities, in general, are rather concentrated around the maxima of solar cycles and display the complex phase relations. When comparing these results with the behaviour of OR oscillations we found that the period of 11 years is dominating (controlling); it is continuous over the entire time interval of 1942–2006, and during all this time it displays high synchronization and clear linear ratios between the phases of oscillations of η, SS and CI. It implies that SCR generation is not isolated stochastic phenomena characteristic exclusively for chromospheric and/or coronal structures. In fact, this process may have global features and involve large regions in the Sun’s atmosphere.     

Assessment of Indian summer monsoon simulation by Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)

Seasonal prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) has been attempted for the current year 2011 using Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) developed at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). First, 30?years of model climatology starting from 1981 to 2010 has been generated to capture the variability of ISM over the Indian region using 30 seasonal simulations. The simulated model climatology has been validated with different sets of observed climatology, and it was observed that the simulated climatological rainfall is affected by model bias. Subsequently, a bias correction procedure using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B43 rainfall has been proposed. The bias-corrected rainfall climatology shows both spatial and temporal variability of ISM satisfactorily. Further, four sets of 10-member ensemble simulations of ISM 2009 and 2010 have been performed in hindcast mode using observed sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence of April SST anomaly, and it has been found that the bias-corrected model rainfall captures the seasonal variability of ISM reasonably well with some discrepancies in these two contrasting monsoon years. With this positive background, the seasonal prediction of ISM 2011 has been carried out in forecast mode with the assumption of persistence of May SST anomaly from June through September 2011. The model assessment shows an 11% deficiency in All-India Rainfall (AIR) of ISM 2011. In particular, the monthly accumulated rains are predicted to be 101% (17.6?cm), 86% (24.3?cm), 83% (21.0?cm) and 95% (15.5?cm) of normal AIR for the months of June, July, August and September, respectively.     

Interannual-to-decadal variability of the North Atlantic from an ocean data assimilation system

An ocean analysis, assimilating both surface and subsurface hydrographic temperature data into a global ocean model, has been produced for the period 1958–2000, and used to study the time and space variations of North Atlantic upper ocean heat content (HC). Observational evidence is presented for interannual-to-decadal variability of upper ocean thermal fluctuations in the North Atlantic related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) variability over the last 40 years. The assimilation scheme used in the ocean analysis is a univariate, variational optimum interpolation of temperature. The first guess is produced by an eddy permitting global ocean general circulation forced by atmospheric reanalysis from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The validation of the ocean analysis has been done through the comparison with objectively analyzed observations and independent data sets. The method is able to compensate for the model systematic error to reproduce a realistic vertical thermal structure of the region and to improve consistently the model estimation of the time variability of the upper ocean temperature. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that an important mode of variability of the wintertime upper ocean climate over the North Atlantic during the period of study is characterized by a tripole pattern both for SST and upper ocean HC. A similar mode is found for summer HC anomalies but not for summer SST. Over the whole period, HC variations in the subtropics show a general warming trend while the tropical and north eastern part of the basin have an opposite cooling tendency. Superimposed on this linear trend, the HC variability explained by the first EOF both in winter and summer conditions reveals quasi-decadal oscillations correlated with changes in the NAO index. On the other hand, there is no evidence of correlation in time between the NAO index and the upper ocean HC averaged over the whole North Atlantic which exhibits a substantial and monotonic warming trend during the last two decades of the analysis period. The maximum correlation is found between the leading principal component of winter HC anomalies and NAO index at 1 year lag with NAO leading. For SST anomalies significant correlation is found only for winter conditions. In contrast, for HC anomalies high correlations are found also in the summer suggesting that the summer HC keeps a memory of winter conditions.     

Adaptation in integrated assessment modeling: where do we stand?

Adaptation is an important element on the climate change policy agenda. Integrated assessment models, which are key tools to assess climate change policies, have begun to address adaptation, either by including it implicitly in damage cost estimates, or by making it an explicit control variable. We analyze how modelers have chosen to describe adaptation within an integrated framework, and suggest many ways they could improve the treatment of adaptation by considering more of its bottom-up characteristics. Until this happens, we suggest, models may be too optimistic about the net benefits adaptation can provide, and therefore may underestimate the amount of mitigation they judge to be socially optimal. Under some conditions, better modeling of adaptation costs and benefits could have important implications for defining mitigation targets.