Prediction of earthquake hazard by hidden Markov model (around Bilecik,NW Turkey)

Earthquakes are one of the most important natural hazards to be evaluated carefully in engineering projects, due to the severely damaging effects on human-life and human-made structures. The hazard of an earthquake is defined by several approaches and consequently earthquake parameters such as peak ground acceleration occurring on the focused area can be determined. In an earthquake prone area, the identification of the seismicity patterns is an important task to assess the seismic activities and evaluate the risk of damage and loss along with an earthquake occurrence. As a powerful and flexible framework to characterize the temporal seismicity changes and reveal unexpected patterns, Poisson hidden Markov model provides a better understanding of the nature of earthquakes. In this paper, Poisson hidden Markov model is used to predict the earthquake hazard in Bilecik (NW Turkey) as a result of its important geographic location. Bilecik is in close proximity to the North Anatolian Fault Zone and situated between Ankara and Istanbul, the two biggest cites of Turkey. Consequently, there are major highways, railroads and many engineering structures are being constructed in this area. The annual frequencies of earthquakes occurred within a radius of 100 km area centered on Bilecik, from January 1900 to December 2012, with magnitudes (M) at least 4.0 are modeled by using Poisson-HMM. The hazards for the next 35 years from 2013 to 2047 around the area are obtained from the model by forecasting the annual frequencies of M ≥ 4 earthquakes.     

Implications of design philosophies for seismic response of steel moment frames

During a severe earthquake, steel moment resisting frames are expected to experience significant inelastic deformation in their members and joints. This behaviour is dependent upon several design parameters such as member sizes, frame's overstrength, member deformation capacities and the detailing of components. In this study, the influence of such aspects on the inelastic response of frames is investigated. Inelastic static and dynamic analyses were performed on four frames of different designs for a typical six-storey building. The frames were designed and detailed in accordance with current North American code requirements. The computed response of each frame was compared with the behaviour expected by the codes. Recommendations for a design procedure are suggested for improving the structural performance of low-rise steel frames subjected to strong earthquake excitation.     

The porosity of saturated shallow sediments from seismic compressional and shear wave velocities

This study devises a new analytical relationship to determine the porosity of water-saturated soils at shallow depth using seismic compressional and shear wave velocities. Seismic refraction surveys together with soil sample collection were performed in selected areas containing water-saturated clay–silt, sand and gravely soils. Classification of clay–silt, sand and gravel dense soils provided the coefficient of experimental equation between the data sets, namely, Poisson's ratio, shear modulus and porosity values. This study presents a new analytical relationship between Poisson's ratio and shear modulus values, which are obtained from seismic velocities and porosity values of water-saturated material computed from water content and grain densities, which are determined by laboratory analysis of disturbed samples. The analytical relationship between data sets indicates that when the shear modulus of water-saturated loose soil increases, porosity decreases logarithmically. If shear modulus increases in dense or solid saturated soils, porosity decreases linearly.     

Two orogenies in the Meatiq area of the Central Eastern Desert,Egypt

The Pan-African basement exposed in the Meatiq area west of Quseir, Egypt, consists of an infracrustal basement overthrusted by a supracrustal cover. The infracrustal rocks were developed as a result of an old orogeny referred to as the Meatiqian orogeny where granite—gneiss, migmatitic gneisses and migmatized amphibolites were formed. The granite—gneiss represents a deformed granite pluton emplaced at 626±2 Ma, whereas the migmatitic gneisses and amphibolites are of mixed igneous and sedimentary parentage. In view of the data so far available, the nature of the Meatiqian orogeny could not be deciphered. In spite of the young isotopic ages, it is suggested that at least the metasedimentary gneisses represent older rocks in the stratigraphic sequence of the infracrustal basement.The supracrustal cover represents a part of an extensive ophiolitic mélange obducted onto the infracrustal basement during the next orogeny (Abu Ziran orogeny) which culminated at 613±2 Ma. An active continental margin-type regime can adequately explain the evolution of such a supracrustal cover. During obduction, the ophiolitic mélange and the upper 2 km thick part of the infracrustal basement were intensely deformed and metamorphosed under PT conditions of the greenschist—epidote amphibolite facies. The deformed infracrustal basement was converted into mylonitic—blastomylonitic rocks and schists composing five thrust sheets, and subsequently intruded by synkinematic granitoid sheets. Later, both the infracrustal basement and the overlying supracrustal cover were isostatically uplifted, subjected to complex shallow folding giving rise to the major Meatiq domal structure, and were intruded by a postkinematic adamellite pluton at 579±6 Ma.     

Placing Venus in an orbit similar to that of the Earth

Motivated by the recent proposals of A. Abian, we introduce the physical and dynamical considerations for producing a second Earth-like planet on which life sustaining conditions may exist, and hence we acquire multiplication of the cosmic resources of the human race. We investigate the perturbations in our solar system after alteration, through a third order Hamiltonian planetary theory for the eight principal planets. The Hori-Lie theorem, the Jacobi-Radau coordinates, and the canonical variables of H. Poincaré are adopted.     

Expansion of the mutual distance between two planets raised to any negative power

An expression for ^–s in terms of the Poincaré variablesL, , H, K, P. Q has been evaluated. The inclinations of the two planets are referred to a common fixed plane. We neglect in the final formula powers higher than the third of the Poincaré variables.     

Groundwater recharge dams in arid areas as tools for aquifer replenishment and mitigating seawater intrusion: example of AlKhod, Oman

Groundwater depletion and seawater intrusion constitute major challenges along coastal aquifers in arid areas. This paper assesses the role of groundwater recharge dams constructed to replenish aquifers and fight seawater intrusion with reference to AlKhod dam, Oman, sited 7 km from the coast on a gravely unconfined aquifer. Water table rise in piezometers located downstream from the dam shows regular patterns correlating with magnitude of wadi flow, whereas upstream piezometers show irregular patterns. Controlled release of water captured by the dam optimizes water percolation and enhances artificial recharge which was estimated in the wet years 1997, 2003 and 2005 as 15, 22 and 27 Mm³, respectively, using water table fluctuation method. Recharge contributed 40–60 % of the total annual abstraction. Groundwater salinity increased in the 1980s and 1990s and the saline/freshwater interface advanced inland, but has receded partially after 1997 (highest rainfall) and completely after 2005 indicated by reduction in electrical conductivity and thickening of freshwater lens. The recession is attributed to the dam’s induced recharge and reduction of pumping in 2004 following the commissioning of Barka desalination plant. Integrating artificial recharge with groundwater resources management is therefore an effective measure to replenish aquifers in arid areas and mitigate seawater intrusion along the coasts.     

The elimination of short-periodic terms in a Uranus-Neptune general planetary theory by von Zeipel's method

We eliminate by the method of von Zeipel the short-period terms in a first order-with respect to planetary masses—general planetary Uranus-Neptune theory. We exclude in the expansion terms of eccentricities and sines of inclinations higher than the third power.Our variables are the Poincaré canonical variables. We use the Jacobi-Radau set of origins, and we refer the planes of the osculating ellipses to a common fixed plane, the longitudes to a common origin. The short-periodic terms arising from the indirect and principal parts of the disturbing functions, are eliminated separately. The Fourier series of the principal part of the disturbing function, is reduced to the sum of only the first three terms.     

Fourier techniques for an analysis of eclipsing binary light curves: IV

The aim of the present paper is to establish two further series expansions (alternative to those given in Demircan, 1979a, b, c), for the observed light changes of eclipsing binary system. The coefficients of these expansions have also been expressed in the form of general series expansions in terms of the eclipse elementsr _1.2,i andL ₁ of the spherical model on which all other distorted models may be based (Kopal, 1975, 1976) in an analysis in the frequency-domain.     

The surface distortion caused by the tides in galactic binary system

Analytical expression of the equi-potential surface and the distorted potential by tidal effect for binary galactic system has been derived. The comparison between the numerical results and the observed data has been given.