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31.
Impact of improved assimilation of temperature and salinity for coupled model seasonal forecasts 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We assess the impact of improved ocean initial conditions for predicting El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) using the Bureau of Meteorology’s Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) coupled seasonal prediction model for the period 1982–2006. The new ocean initial conditions are provided by an ensemble-based analysis system that assimilates subsurface temperatures and salinity and which is a clear improvement over the previous optimal interpolation system which used static error covariances and was univariate (temperature only). Hindcasts using the new ocean initial conditions have better skill at predicting sea surface temperature (SST) variations associated with ENSO than do the hindcasts initialized with the old ocean analyses. The improvement derives from better prediction of subsurface temperatures and the largest improvements come during ENSO–IOD neutral years. We show that improved prediction of the Niño3.4 SST index derives from improved initial depiction of the thermocline and halocline in the equatorial Pacific but as lead time increases the improved depiction of the initial salinity field in the western Pacific become more important. Improved ocean initial conditions do not translate into improved skill for predicting the IOD but we do see an improvement in the prediction of subsurface temperatures in the Indian Ocean (IO). This result reflects that the coupling between subsurface and surface temperature variations is weaker in the IO than in the Pacific, but coupled model errors may also be limiting predictive skill in the IO. 相似文献
32.
Li Shi Harry H. Hendon Oscar Alves Matthew C. Wheeler David Anderson Guomin Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(1-2):313-324
The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing. 相似文献
33.
Andrew G. Marshall Debra Hudson Matthew C. Wheeler Harry H. Hendon Oscar Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(11-12):2129-2141
We assess the ability of the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) to simulate and predict weekly rainfall associated with the MJO using a 27-year hindcast dataset. After an initial 2-week atmospheric adjustment, the POAMA model is shown to simulate well, both in pattern and in intensity, the weekly-mean rainfall variation associated with the evolution of the MJO over the tropical Indo-Pacific. The simulation is most realistic in December?CFebruary (austral summer) and least realistic in March?CMay (austral autumn). Regionally, the most problematic area is the Maritime Continent, which is a common problem area in other models. Coupled with our previous demonstration of the ability of POAMA to predict the evolution of the large-scale structure of the MJO for up to about 3?weeks, this ability to simulate the regional rainfall evolution associated with the MJO translates to enhanced predictability of rainfall regionally throughout much of the tropical Indo-Pacific when the MJO is present in the initial conditions during October?CMarch. We also demonstrate enhanced prediction skill of rainfall at up to 3?weeks lead time over the north-east Pacific and north Atlantic, which are areas of pronounced teleconnections excited by the MJO-modulation of tropical Indo-Pacific rainfall. Failure to simulate and predict the modulation of rainfall in such places as the Maritime Continent and tropical Australia by the MJO indicates, however, there is still much room for improvement of the prediction of the MJO and its teleconnections. 相似文献
34.
Ephemeris errors of GPS satellites 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Oscar L. Colombo 《Journal of Geodesy》1986,60(1):64-84
Ephemeris errors are supposed to be a major factor limiting the usefulness ofGPS in high precision geodesy. Considerations of orbital mechanics suggest that, regardless of their complexity, the uncertainties
in the solar radiation pressure model, the gravity field model, and the estimated initial state, may have simple effects on
the ephemeris. This possibility has been tested by fitting linear combinations of simple functions—chosen on theoretical grounds—to
simulated errors of three-day ephemerides. With a set of five functions for the across-track component, six for the radial,
and seven for the along-track, it has been possible to fit the position errors to better than 1% of theirr.m.s values, in all the caces studied. The simulations included —besides solar radiation pressure errors—gravity field model and
initial state uncertainties, as well as an unknown constant force along the axis of the solar panels. The solar radiation
force was calculated taking into account the shape, orientation, and physical properties (reflectivity and specularity) of
the main parts of the spacecraft, under various conditions of illumination (continuous sunlight, eclipses, etc.). 相似文献
35.
36.
37.
Oscar Link Christian González María Maldonado Cristián Escauriaza 《Acta Geophysica》2012,60(6):1689-1719
Recent investigations on the dynamics of the turbulent horseshoe vortex system (THV) around cylindrical piers have shown that the rich coherent dynamics of the vortical structures is dominated by low-frequency bimodal fluctuations of the velocity field. In spite of these advances, many questions remain regarding the changes of the flow and sediment transport dynamics as scour progresses. In this investigation we carry out laboratory experiments to register the development of the scour hole around a cylindrical pier in a fine-sand bed (d 50 = 0.36 mm). We use the bathymetry measured in the experiment to simulate the flow field employing the detached-eddy simulation approach (DES), which has shown to resolve most of the turbulent stresses around surface-mounted obstacles. From these simulations we compare the dynamics of the THV to the flat-bed case, and analyze the effects on particle transport and sediment flux using the Lagrangian particle model of Escauriaza and Sotiropoulos (2011b) to study the impact of the changes of the flow on the sediment dynamics. 相似文献
38.
Geophysical flows of practical interest encompass turbulent boundary layer flows. The velocity profile in turbulent flows
is generally described by a log- or a power-law applicable to certain zones of the boundary layer, or by wall-wake law for
the entire zone of the boundary layer. In this study, a novel theory is proposed from which the power-law velocity profile
is obtained for the turbulent boundary layer flow. The new power-law profile is based on the conservation of mass and the
skin friction within the boundary layer. From the proposed theory, analytical expressions for the power-law velocity profile
are presented, and their Reynolds-number dependency is highlighted. The velocity profile, skin friction coefficient and boundary
layer thickness obtained from the proposed theory are validated by the reliable experimental data for zero-pressure gradient
turbulent boundary layers. The expressions for Reynolds shear stress and eddy viscosity distributions across the boundary
layer are also obtained and validated by the experimental data. 相似文献
39.
Barbara B. Prézelin Max M. Tilzer Oscar Schofield Clivia Haese 《Aquatic Sciences - Research Across Boundaries》1991,53(2-3):136-186
This tutorial was designed for nonbiologists requiring an introduction to the nature and general timescales of phytoplankton responses to physical forcing in aquatic environments. As such, an effort was made to highlight biological markers which might assist in identifying, measuring and/or validating physical processes controlling the variability in the distribution, abundance, composition and activity of phytoplankton communities. Given the recent advances in environmental optics and remote sensing capabilities, a special emphasis was placed on the nature and utility of phytoplankton optical properties in current bio-optical modelling efforts to predict temporal and spatial variability in phytoplankton productivity and growth. 相似文献
40.
Víctor Alcaraz‐González Fabián Azael Fregoso‐Sanchez Hugo Oscar Mendez‐Acosta Victor Gonzalez‐Alvarez 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2013,41(12):1157-1164
In this paper, a multiple‐input multiple‐output (MIMO) model‐based robust control scheme is proposed for the indirect control of both total alkalinity and the ratio (intermediate alkalinity)/(total alkalinity) by regulating volatile fatty acid concentrations and strong ions concentration, while guaranteeing the so‐called operational stability in anaerobic digestion (AD) processes. The proposed MIMO regulator is an adaptive controller derived from an AD model which incorporates the physicochemical equilibrium of the system as well as the use of a robust interval observer to estimate key process bounds that are used in the computation of the control efforts. Numerical simulations were carried out for a number of operating conditions under the most uncertain scenarios. Results showed that the proposed multivariable control law is able to recover the system stability around a pre‐determined set point in the face of parameter uncertainty and load disturbances. 相似文献