Sedimentary facies and paleoenvironmental interpretation of a Holocene marsh in the Gironde Estuary in France

1Introduction Since the last glacial maximum, the Holocenehas been marked by a rapid rise in sea level. After6 000 a BP, the present-day level was reached andthe rate of sea-level rise (SLR) decreased rapidly(Morzadec -Kerfourn, 1974; Kidson, 1986 ).These…     

Petrology of pumices of April 1993 eruption of Lascar (Atacama, Chile)

Lascar Volcano (Atacama, Chile) erupted on 18–20 April 1993. Several sub-Plinian explosions occurred, and some were mushroom-shaped. The highest column rose up to 23 km. Ash clouds crossed South America eastwards. Dacite pumice falls made of blocks and ashes were deposited on the flanks of the volcano as a result of collapsed columns. The pumice contains phenocrysts of plagioclase, enstatite, augite, biotite, magnetite and ilmenite and small crystals of apatite. The 1992 previous andesite dome inside the crater was destroyed. Banded blocks resulting from mingling of the dacitic pumice and andesite from the dome are found in the pumice flow. Both the lava dome and the pumice are representative of the Lascar high-K magma unit. Dacitic pumice is a product of crystal fractionation of the andesitic magma.     

Modal pushover‐based scaling of earthquake records for nonlinear analysis of single‐story unsymmetric‐plan buildings

The modal pushover‐based scaling (MPS) procedure, currently restricted to symmetric‐plan buildings, is extended herein to unsymmetric‐plan buildings. The accuracy of the extended MPS procedure was evaluated for a large set of three‐degree‐of‐freedom unsymmetric‐plan structures with variable stiffness and strength. The structures were subjected to nonlinear response history analysis considering sets of seven records scaled according to the MPS procedure. Structural responses were compared against the benchmark values, defined as the median values of the engineering demand parameters due to 30 unscaled records. This evaluation of the MPS procedure has led to the following conclusions: (i) the MPS procedure provided accurate estimates of median engineering demand parameter values and reduced record‐to‐record variability of the responses; and (2) the MPS procedure is found to be much superior compared to the ASCE/SEI 7‐10 scaling procedure for three‐dimensional analysis of unsymmetric‐plan buildings. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation des changements climatiques au cours du XXIe siècle incluant l'ozone stratosphériqueSimulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone

Two climate simulations of 150 years, performed with a coupled ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere model including stratospheric ozone, respectively with and without heterogeneous chemistry, simulate the tropospheric warming associated with an increase of the greenhouse effect of carbon dioxide and other trace gases since 1950 and their impact on sea–ice extent, as well as the stratospheric cooling and its impact on ozone concentration. The scenario with heterogeneous chemistry reproduces the formation of the ozone hole over the South Pole from the 1970s and its deepening until the present time, and shows that the ozone hole should progressively fill during the coming decades. To cite this article: J.-F. Royer et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 147–154.     

Predicting river water temperatures using stochastic models: case study of the Moisie River (Québec,Canada)

Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Security and party politics in Cape Town

Despite a long academic debate on the patrimonial dimension of the state in Africa and a more recent interest in African political parties, the effect of patronage and party politics on governability in Africa’s cities remains poorly addressed in the academic literature. This includes the case in South Africa when one looks at the security sector, which to a certain extent, looks like a depoliticised field of expertise. Popular claims for security seem to be a side issue in the literature on social movements, while vigilante specialists and policing experts do not place party politics at the core of security issue challenges, especially in poor townships. The provision of security in poor neighbourhoods is an important resource in the struggle for political support however. This is examined through two case studies in Cape Town Coloured townships, considering the role played by political leaders, NGO leaders and key officials in grassroots mobilisations for security. These mobilisations are not only about politicking however; ‘ordinary members’ of local security organisations also get involved for motivations, which have nothing to do with confrontational party politics. These different agendas between ordinary members and local leaders cannot be read as the manifestation of a fundamental opposition between the popular classes and a westernised elite as suggested by Charterjee. It reveals instead prevalent and ambivalent relationships between partisan politics and popular mobilisations for security in a context of high insecurity.     

Impact of the Indian part of the summer MJO on West Africa using nudged climate simulations

Observational evidence suggests a link between the summer Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and anomalous convection over West Africa. This link is further studied with the help of the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model. The approach is based on nudging the model towards the reanalysis in the Asian monsoon region. The simulation successfully captures the convection associated with the summer MJO in the nudging region. Outside this region the model is free to evolve. Over West Africa it simulates convection anomalies that are similar in magnitude, structure, and timing to the observed ones. In accordance with the observations, the simulation shows that 15–20?days after the maximum increase (decrease) of convection in the Indian Ocean there is a significant reduction (increase) in West African convection. The simulation strongly suggests that in addition to the eastward-moving MJO signal, the westward propagation of a convectively coupled equatorial Rossby wave is needed to explain the overall impact of the MJO on convection over West Africa. These results highlight the use of MJO events to potentially predict regional-scale anomalous convection and rainfall spells over West Africa with a time lag of approximately 15–20?days.