On the importance of initializing the stochastic part of the atmosphere for forecasting the 1997/1998 El Ni?o

The importance of initializing atmospheric intra-seasonal (stochastic) variations for prediction of the onset of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o is examined using the Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. A suite of 9-month forecasts was initialized on the 1st December 1996. Observed ocean initial conditions were used together with five different atmospheric initial conditions that sample a range of possible initial states of intra-seasonal (stochastic) variability, especially the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is considered the primary stochastic variability of relevance to El Ni?o evolution. The atmospheric initial states were generated from a suite of atmosphere-only integrations forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SST). To the extent that low frequency variability of the tropical atmosphere is forced by slow variations in SST, these atmospheric states should all represent realistic low frequency atmospheric variability that was present in December 1996. However, to the extent that intra-seasonal variability is not constrained by SST, they should capture a range of intra-seasonal states, especially variations in the activity, phase and amplitude of the MJO. For each of these five states, a 20-member ensemble of coupled model forecasts was generated by the addition of small random perturbations to the SST field at the initial time. The ensemble mean from all five sets of forecasts resulted in El Ni?o but three of the sets produced substantially greater warming by months 4?C5 in the NINO3.4 region compared to the other two. The warmer group stemmed from stronger intra-seasonal westerly wind anomalies associated with the MJO that propagated eastward into the central Pacific during the first 1?C2?months of the forecast. These were largely absent in the colder group; the weakest of the colder group developed strong easterly wind anomalies, relative to the grand ensemble mean, that propagated into the central Pacific early in the forecast, thereby generating significantly weaker downwelling Kelvin waves in comparison to the warmer group. The strong reduction in downwelling Kelvin waves in the weakest case acted to limit the warming in the eastern Pacific, resulting in a ??Modoki?? type El Ni?o that is more focused in the central Pacific. Our results suggest that the intra-seasonal stochastic component of the atmospheric initial condition has an important and potentially predictable impact on the forecasts of the initial warming and flavour of the 1997/1998 El Ni?o. However, to the extent that atmospheric intra-seasonal variability is not predictable beyond a month or two, these results imply a limit to the accuracy with which the strength and perhaps the spatial distribution of an El Ni?o can ultimately be predicted. These results do not preclude a predictable role of the MJO and other intra-seasonal stochastic variability at longer lead times if some aspects of the stochastic variability are preconditioned by the evolving state of El Ni?o or other low frequency boundary forcing.     

Power-law velocity profile in turbulent boundary layers: An integral reynolds-number dependent solution

Geophysical flows of practical interest encompass turbulent boundary layer flows. The velocity profile in turbulent flows is generally described by a log- or a power-law applicable to certain zones of the boundary layer, or by wall-wake law for the entire zone of the boundary layer. In this study, a novel theory is proposed from which the power-law velocity profile is obtained for the turbulent boundary layer flow. The new power-law profile is based on the conservation of mass and the skin friction within the boundary layer. From the proposed theory, analytical expressions for the power-law velocity profile are presented, and their Reynolds-number dependency is highlighted. The velocity profile, skin friction coefficient and boundary layer thickness obtained from the proposed theory are validated by the reliable experimental data for zero-pressure gradient turbulent boundary layers. The expressions for Reynolds shear stress and eddy viscosity distributions across the boundary layer are also obtained and validated by the experimental data.     

Mapping of erosion rates in marly badlands based on a coupling of anatomical changes in exposed roots with slope maps derived from LiDAR data

Black marls form very extensive outcrops in the Alps and constitute some of the most eroded terrains, thus causing major problems of sedimentation in artificial storage systems (e.g. reservoirs) and river systems. In the experimental catchments near Draix (France), soil erosion rates have been measured in the past at the plot scale through a detailed monitoring of surface elevation changes and at the catchment scale through continuous monitoring of sediment yield in traps at basin outlets. More recently, erosion rates have been determined by means of dendrogeomorphic techniques in three monitored catchments of the Draix basin. A total of 48 exposed roots of Scots pine have been sampled and anatomical variations in annual growth rings resulting from denudation analysed. At the plot scale, average medium‐term soil erosion rates derived from exposed roots vary between 1·8 and 13·8 mm yr^?1 (average: 5·9 mm yr^?1) and values are significantly correlated with slope angle. The dendrogeomorphic record of point‐scale soil erosion rates matches very well with soil erosion rates measured in the Draix basins. Based on the point‐scale measurements and dendrogeomorphic results obtained at the point scale, a linear regression model involving slope angle was derived and coupled to high‐resolution slope maps obtained from a LiDAR‐generated digital elevation model so as to generate high‐resolution soil erosion maps. The resulting regression model is statistically significant and average soil erosion rates obtained from the areal erosion map (5·8, 5·2 and 6·2 mm yr^?1 for the Roubine, Moulin and Laval catchments, respectively) prove to be well in concert with average annual erosion rates measured in traps at the outlet of these catchments since 1985 (6·3, 4·1 and 6·4 mm yr^?1). This contribution demonstrates that dendrogeomorphic analyses of roots clearly have significant potential and that they are a powerful tool for the quantification and mapping of soil erosion rates in areas where measurements of past erosion is lacking. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Silver fluxes to the Gironde Estuary - Eleven years (1999-2009) of monitoring at the watershed scale

Although Ag has long been recognized as highly toxic to aquatic organisms and as an efficient tracer of urban wastewater inputs, there are very few data available on Ag levels and fluxes in rivers and estuaries. Due to anomalously high Ag concentrations in oysters from the estuary mouth, dissolved (Ag_D) and particulate Ag (Ag_P) concentrations in rivers of the Gironde Estuary watershed were studied. Using daily discharge, Suspended particulate matter (SPM) data and monthly measured Ag_D and Ag_P, the respective fluxes were estimated at the three main entries of the Gironde Estuary and at selected key sites at the outlets of different sub-watersheds for multiple years of the past decade. Dissolved and particulate Ag concentrations were 0.5 ng/L (detection limit) to 5.7 ng/L and 0.13-13.9 mg/kg in all rivers, except for the Riou-Mort River (up to 1260 ng/L and 261 mg/kg) that has been heavily polluted by former Zn ore treatment and remaining waste tailings. At all sites Ag transport mainly (73-100%) occurred in the particulate phase, i.e. strongly depended on hydrological parameters. Comparing Th-normalised (i.e. grain size independent) Ag_P levels at the different sites including one remote site showed that the regional background is best described by Ag_P/Th_P = 0.026. The anthropogenic components in Ag_P levels and fluxes ranged from 24% to 90% at all sites, except for the Riou-Mort River (81-99%). Although this former ore treatment site still is an evident Ag source to the Lot-Garonne fluvial-estuarine system, its contribution to Ag fluxes at the main entry of the Gironde Estuary (i.e. 0.33-2.44 t/a at the La Reole site) is <11%. This clearly suggests that other sources such as rock weathering and erosion (0.057-0.817 t/a), urban wastewater inputs (0.042-0.057 t/a) and cloud-seeding (0.030-0.063 t/a) contribute the major parts of the fluvial Ag budget in this watershed. The estimated anthropogenic surface- and population-specific Ag fluxes in the studied system were 1.14-682 g/km²/a and 0.028-6.05 g/person/a, respectively. The results obtained suggest that the Gironde fluvial-estuarine system is contaminated by Ag inputs from various sources, but further work is necessary to (i) identify and quantify the major sources and (ii) produce comparable data for other systems, which would be useful for the evaluation of Ag contamination at a larger scale.     

A geologic study of the Juan del Grijalva landslide,the most important mass movement during the last century in Mexico

On November 4th 2007, along the Grijalva River in the state of Chiapas, Mexico, has occurred one of the largest landslides ever known. This landslide, known as Juan del Grijalva, destroyed the town of the same name, killing 20 people, and moved 55 million cubic meters of rock and debris down slope to completely block the Grijalva River. In order to understand the characteristics and factors that triggered the Juan del Grijalva landslide, geologic studies were conducted at the site. The results indicate that the landslide was composed of a lithologic sequence of thin-bedded shales and thin to medium-thick-bedded sandstones. This was faulted into several blocks dipping in the same sense as the mass movement. The main triggering factor was the increment of the pore pressure into the lithologic unit due to water saturation after 5 days of heavy rain before the incident. According to records from the last century, the Juan del Grijalva mass movement represents one of the largest mass movements recorded all over the world. The risk conditions of the area after the landslide lead to the rapid construction of an artificial channel to drain the accumulating mass of water upstream and therefore prevent a future catastrophic inundation down stream.     

Origin of resources and trophic pathways in a large SW Atlantic estuary: An evaluation using stable isotopes

The Río de la Plata (34° 36′ S, 55° 58′ W; Argentina and Uruguay) estuary, one of the most important South American estuarine environments, is characterized by weak seasonal freshwater discharge, low tidal amplitude (<1 m), a wide and permanent connection to the sea, and a salt-wedge regime. Using stable isotope analysis, we explored the relative importance of the different sources of primary production in the food web. Our results show that phytoplankton and macrodetritus from terrestrial salt and freshwater marshes both contribute to the food web of the Río de la Plata estuary. On the basis of the sampled species, we identified four trophic levels. The clam Mactra isabelleana, the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa, and the opossum shrimp Neomysis americana are the primary consumers. The rays Atlantoraja castelnaui and Squatina guggenheim and the shark Galeorhinus galeus are the top predators. The Río de la Plata food web shows an important input of nutrients derived from phytoplankton. Rays, sharks, and predatory gastropods reveal an important contribution of C4 plants (likely Spartina spp.). However, production derived from C3 plants is also important for some species. The fishes Brazilian menhaden, Brevoortia aurea; the stripped weakfish Cynoscion guatucupa; and the whitemouth croaker, Micropogonias furnieri, showed differences in their isotopic signatures as juveniles and adults, indicating different food sources, and they were therefore treated as different components of the food web. Our data suggest that detritus from salt and freshwater marshes is reaching the Río de la Plata estuary and can be an important allocthonous source of energy to this environment.     

Overview of the subsurface structural pattern of the Paris Basin (France): Insights from the reprocessing and interpretation of regional seismic lines

The study presents the methodology used by the French Geological Survey (BRGM) for the building, reprocessing and interpretation of selected regional seismic lines in the Paris intracratonic basin (France): the 14 constructed E-W and N-S regional transects represent a total of 2,516 km length, and are based on the merge of 240 seismic single profiles recorded by petroleum operators between 1971 and 1995. The regional lines have been selected to cross the main oil fields of the Paris Basin, as well as high potential areas for oil exploration. A first difficulty was to recover the raw data necessary to build-up the regional transects. The signal reprocessing, harmonization and merge of the single seismic lines, constituent of the regional transects, are then described; these operations represent the cornerstone of the study. We put the emphasis on the primary static corrections, as the targeted structures are commonly spatially associated with large seismic velocity variations in the upper Cretaceous chalk and Tertiary sedimentary cover.The interpreted regional transects definitely give complementary information to the existing studies, which generally lack seismic (and therefore structural) data: we give an overview of the main structural and geometrical features of the Paris Basin: inversion structures, major unconformities, as well as Permo-Carboniferous basins. We also describe the structural pattern, and show the close relationships between the faults geometry, the faults density, and the geological evolution of the Paris Basin: we distinguish (1) few large-scale polyphase faults, with a Variscan origin, representing the first order structural frame of the Paris Basin; (2) monophase normal faults, with strike-slip features, representing the subsurface prolongation of Cenozoic grabens cropping out in the neighbourhood; (3) deep normal faults, sealed by the base Calcareous Dogger sequence, related to the Permo-Liassic extensional tectonic regime. This large-scale view of the Paris Basin has highlighted several potential exploration targets.     

Molecular evidence for life in the 3.5 billion year old Warrawoona chert

The biological origin of organic matter in the oldest siliceous sediments (cherts) is still debated. To address this issue, the insoluble organic matter (kerogen) was isolated from a chert of the Warrawoona group. The chemical structure of the kerogen was investigated through a combination of analytical techniques including solid-state ¹³C nuclear magnetic resonance and pyrolysis. Although dominated by aromatic hydrocarbons, the pyrolysate comprises a homologous series of long chain aliphatic hydrocarbons characterized by odd-over-even carbon number predominance. This distribution is only consistent with a biological origin. As kerogen must be contemporaneous of the solidification of the chert, this observation should be regarded as an evidence for the presence of life on Earth, 3.5 By ago.     

Microstructural Inhomogeneity and Mechanical Anisotropy Associated with Bedding in Rothbach Sandstone

This study present the result of conventional triaxial tests conducted on samples of Rothbach sandstone cored parallel, oblique (at 45 degrees) and perpendicular to the bedding at effective pressures ranging from 5 to 250 MPa. Mechanical and microstructural data were used to determine the role of the bedding on mechanical strength and failure mode. We find that samples cored at 45 degrees to the bedding yield at intermediate level of differential stress between the ones for parallel and perpendicular samples at all effective pressures. Strain localization at high confining pressure (i.e., in the compactive domain) is observed in samples perpendicular and oblique to the bedding but not in samples cored parallel to the bedding. However, porosity reduction is comparable whether compactive shear bands, compaction bands or homogeneous cataclastic flow develop. Microstructural data suggest that (1) mechanical anisotropy is controlled by a preferred intergranular contact alignment parallel to the bedding and that (2) localization of compaction is controlled by bedding laminations and grain scale heterogeneity, which both prevent the development of well localized compaction features.