Halving global GHG emissions by 2050 without depending on nuclear and CCS

In this paper, we assessed the technological feasibility and economic viability of the mid-term (until 2050) GHG emission reduction target required for stabilization of radiative forcing at 2.6 W/m2. Given the apparent uncertainty surrounding the future deployment of nuclear and CCS technologies, we intensively investigated emission reduction scenarios without nuclear and CCS. The analysis using AIM/Enduse[Global] shows the emission reduction target is technologically feasible, but the cost for achieving the target becomes very high if nuclear and CCS options are limited. The main reason for the cost rise is that additional investment for expensive technologies is required in order to compensate for emission increases in the steel, cement and power generation sectors in the absence of CCS. On the other hand, if material efficiency improvement measures, such as material substitution, efficient use of materials and recycling, are taken, the cost of achieving the emission reduction target is significantly reduced. The result indicates the potentially important role of material efficiency improvement in curbing the cost of significant GHG emission reductions without depending on nuclear and CCS.     

Origin of the Velocity-Strengthening Nature of Granular Friction

A simple theory for a constitutive law for steady state dynamic friction in granular matter is presented. Starting from the energy balance equation together with the kinetics of grains, the energy dissipation rate is estimated, which directly leads to a constitutive law. The result indicates that a system of lower density is stronger than a system of higher density, albeit somewhat counterintuitive. This is a consequence of the fact that the grain rearrangement, which causes energy dissipation, is more frequent in a system of lower density. Thus, the velocity-strengthening nature of granular friction is naturally explained by the negative shear-rate dependence of the density. The present theory also qualitatively explains the experimental observation that a system of smaller layer thickness tends to be velocity-weakening.     

耦合融雪的分布式流域"降雨-径流"数值模型

针对中国对耦合融雪的"降雨-径流"过程数值计算模型方面的研究较少,本文联合应用能量平衡方程及运动波理论的基础方程式,结合GIS技术构建分布式流域耦合融雪的"降雨-径流"数值计算模型,并应用流域实测资料进行了有效性验证。研究结果表明:在不考虑融雪条件下,实测流量与计算结果之间存在着较大的误差;在考虑融雪条件下,实测流量与计算结果之间的误差在基准允许范围之内(小于3%);在积雪与融雪区,对流域"降雨-径流"过程的数值计算须考虑融雪。该研究为积雪融雪区提供了一种耦合融雪的"降雨-径流"过程数值计算的新方法。     

Development of ICL landslide teaching tools

Capacity development is important and urgently needed for landslide disaster risk reduction. This is especially so in developing countries where mountain and urban development is accelerating most rapidly, including construction of highways and railways and residential complexes. However, effective tools to teach practical landslide risk reduction knowledge and skills are not available. Therefore, International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) has decided to compile a collection of landslide teaching tools (Sassa et al. 2013) to provide teaching materials to ICL members and other landslide teaching entities to assist in education of university students, local government officers, staff in nongovernmental organizations, and the public. The teaching toolbox contains five parts: (1) mapping and site prediction; (2) monitoring and early warning; (3) testing and numerical simulation; (4) risk management; and (5) country practices and case studies. The teaching toolbox contains three types of tools: (1) TXT tools consisting of original texts with figures; (2) PDF tools consisting of already published reference papers, manuals, guidelines, and others; and (3) PPT tools consisting of PowerPoint® files made for lectures. The initial TXT tools have been published as a full color booklet (405 pages). The PDF tools and PPT tools are contained in a CD. The basic concept and a list of contents of the ICL landslide teaching tools are introduced in this article.     

A compound-specific n-alkane δC and δD approach for assessing source and delivery processes of terrestrial organic matter within a forested watershed in northern Japan

We measured molecular distributions and compound-specific hydrogen (δD) and stable carbon isotopic ratios (δ¹³C) of mid- and long-chain n-alkanes in forest soils, wetland peats and lake sediments within the Dorokawa watershed, Hokkaido, Japan, to better understand sources and processes associate with delivery of terrestrial organic matter into the lake sediments. δ¹³C values of odd carbon numbered C₂₃-C₃₃n-alkanes ranged from −37.2‰ to −31.5‰, while δD values of these alkanes showed a large degree of variability that ranged from −244‰ to −180‰. Molecular distributions in combination with stable carbon isotopic compositions indicate a large contribution of C3 trees as the main source of n-alkanes in forested soils whereas n-alkanes in wetland soil are exclusively derived from marsh grass and/or moss. We found that the n-alkane δD values are much higher in forest soils than wetland peat. The higher δD values in forest samples could be explained by the enrichment of deuterium in leaf and soil waters due to increased evapotranspiration in the forest or differences in physiology of source plants between wetland and forest. A δ¹³C vs. δD diagram of n-alkanes among forest, wetland and lake samples showed that C₂₅-C₃₁n-alkanes deposited in lake sediments are mainly derived from tree leaves due to the preferential transport of the forest soil organic matter over the wetland or an increased contribution of atmospheric input of tree leaf wax in the offshore sites. This study demonstrates that compound-specific δD analysis provides a useful approach for better understanding source and transport of terrestrial biomarkers in a C3 plant-dominated catchment.     

An integrated model simulating the initiation and motion of earthquake and rain induced rapid landslides and its application to the 2006 Leyte landslide

A gigantic rapid landslide claiming over 1,000 fatalities was triggered by rainfalls and a small nearby earthquake in the Leyte Island, Philippines in 2006. The disaster presented the necessity of a new modeling technology for disaster risk preparedness which simulates initiation and motion. This paper presents a new computer simulation integrating the initiation process triggered by rainfalls and/or earthquakes and the development process to a rapid motion due to strength reduction and the entrainment of deposits in the runout path. This simulation model LS-RAPID was developed from the geotechnical model for the motion of landslides (Sassa 1988) and its improved simulation model (Sassa et al. 2004b) and new knowledge obtained from a new dynamic loading ring shear apparatus (Sassa et al. 2004a). The examination of performance of each process in a simple imaginary slope addressed that the simulation model well simulated the process of progressive failure, and development to a rapid landslide. The initiation process was compared to conventional limit equilibrium stability analyses by changing pore pressure ratio. The simulation model started to move in a smaller pore pressure ratio than the limit equilibrium stability analyses because of progressive failure. However, when a larger shear deformation is set as the threshold for the start of strength reduction, the onset of landslide motion by the simulation agrees with the cases where the factor of safety estimated by the limit equilibrium stability analyses equals to a unity. The field investigation and the undrained dynamic loading ring shear tests on the 2006 Leyte landslide suggested that this landslide was triggered by the combined effect of pore water pressure due to rains and a very small earthquake. The application of this simulation model could well reproduce the initiation and the rapid long runout motion of the Leyte landslide.     

Runoff and water budget of the Liudaogou Catchment at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China

The objectives of this study were to examine the runoff characteristics and to estimate water budget at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the Loess Plateau of China. A small catchment known as Liudaogou that has representative meteorological and hydrological conditions of the wind–water erosion crisscross region was chosen as the study location. A numerical model for rainfall-runoff was developed and verified; rainfall-runoff calculation for 5 years (2005–2009) was performed. The observed data and numerical result of the surface runoff were used for evaluating runoff characteristics and estimating the annual water budget. Runoff rate was proportional to average intensity of rain. Even though rainfall duration was for few minutes, surface runoff was generated by intensity of more than 2.6 mm × 5 min^?1, when rainfall duration exceeded 10 h; surface runoff was generated by an intensity of 0.6 mm × 5 min^?1, while annual runoff rate was 10–15 %. The unit area of 1 km² was adopted as the index area for estimating annual water budget. Runoff, evapotranspiration, variation of water storage, and habitant water consumption accounted for 20.4, 75.6, 0, and 4 % of the total annual precipitation, respectively. Results of this study provide the basis for further research on hydrology, water resources, and sustainable water development and utilization at the wind–water erosion crisscross region on the northern Loess Plateau where annual water resources are relatively deficient.     

A note on the height dependence of the skewness and the kurtosis of the vertical turbulent velocity in the neutral surface layer

Several experimental results indicate that S _w (the skewness of the vertical turbulent velocity) increases with height, and K _w (the kurtosis) decreases with height in the neutral surface layer. The measured behavior of S _w and K _w with height under neutral conditions is shown to be consistent with available models for the gradient-diffusion and the pressure-velocity correlation. In addition, an estimate of the mode of the probability density distribution turns out to be helpful in interpreting the height dependence of K _w.     

青藏高原草甸下垫面湍流强度相似性关系分析

利用“全球能量水循环之亚洲季风青藏高原试验(GAME／Tibet)”1998年加强期(IOP)的观测资料，分析研究了青藏高原草甸下垫面上的无量纲风速、温度及湿度方差相似性，并与HEIFE戈壁沙漠和绿洲及海洋下垫面作了比较，得到了一些有关青藏高原草甸下垫面上动力及热力学参数的有益的结论。