Influence Diagrams for Representing Uncertainty in Climate-Related Propositions

In order to respond to policy questions about the potential impacts of climate change it is usually necessary to assemble large quantities of evidence from a variety of sources. Influence diagrams provide a formal mechanism for structuring this evidence and representing its relationship with the climate-related question of interest. When populated with probabilistic measures of belief an influence diagram provides a graphical representation of uncertainty, which can help to synthesize complex and contentious arguments into a relatively simple, yet evidence-based, graphical output.Following unusually damaging floods in October–November 2000 the UK government commissioned research with a view to establishing the extent to which the floods were a manifestation of hydrological climate change. By way of example application, influence diagrams have been used to represent the evidential reasoning and uncertainties in responding to this question. Three alternative approaches to the mathematization of uncertainty in influence diagrams are demonstrated and compared. In situations of information scarcity and imprecise expert judgements, methods based on interval probabilities have proved to be attractive. Interval probabilities can, it is argued, represent ambiguity and ignorance in a more satisfactory manner than the conventional Bayesian alternative. The analysis provides a quantified commentary on the uncertainties in the conclusion that the events of October–November 2000 were extreme, but cannot in themselves be attributed to climate change.     

热液矿床成矿作用研究新途径:数值模拟

热液矿床是最具有工业价值的矿床类型之一,传统矿床学研究在成岩成矿作用、成矿机制和成矿规律等方面已有丰硕成果,但仍存在一些尚无法有效回答的科学问题。近年来,数值模拟方法逐步应用于热液矿床的研究,已成为成矿过程定量研究的新手段。本文系统总结了近年来热液矿床成矿过程数值模拟研究的成果和进展,并对存在问题和发展趋势进行了分析和展望,以期进一步推动这一交叉学科领域的研究。     

Sediment velocity estimation using iterative 3-D migrations of short offset seismic reflection data in deep water

In deep ocean settings where water depth greatly exceeds the source-to-receiver length, the geometry is insufficient for accurate determinations of velocity from reflection-moveout. However, velocities are crucial for estimates of physical properties and image processing. Focusing analyses with conventional post-stack two-dimensional migration improves images, but does not produce geologically meaningful velocities except in the special case of a two-dimensional earth. For the more general case of the three-dimensional earth there is no a priori method to determine the degree of geometrical complexity. We present a technique using a short-offset three-dimensional (3-D) data set over the 5 km deep trench west of the Lesser Antilles. These data illustrate highly sensitive post-stack 3-D focusing analyses (± 20 m s^–1 interval velocities), and the relationship of these seismically derived velocities to rock velocities. In our Barbados example we were able to establish the presence of a widespread 80-160 m thick low-velocity zone at and above the main low-angle fault. This observation suggests the water-rich décollement leaks water into the overlying sections. Also evident is a low-velocity section associated with turbidite sands. These results are confirmed with sparse logging data and well samples. Deep-water short offset 3-D experiments provide a potentially effective approach for velocity estimation, replacing the operational complexity of long-offsets with simpler short-offset techniques. In areas of structural complications and abundant diffracted energy, it is a surprisingly accurate method, utilizing the high fidelity 3-D wavefield and the information carried in zero-offset diffraction ellipsoids. The velocity used to properly collapse a diffraction ellipsoid is explicitly the velocity of propagation in the media since the travel path is known exactly. Thus, the derived velocities should closely represent rock velocities, unlike the 2-D case where the propagation geometry is not known.     

The influence of a season of extreme wet weather events on exposure of the World Heritage Area Great Barrier Reef to pesticides

The 2010-2011 wet season was one of extreme weather for the State of Queensland, Australia. Major rivers adjacent to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) were discharging at rates 1.5 to >3 times higher than their long term median. Exposure to photosystem II herbicides has been routinely monitored over a period of up to 5 years at 12 inshore GBR sites. The influence of this wet season on exposure to photosystem II herbicides was examined in the context of this long-term monitoring record and during flood plume events in specific regions. Median exposures expressed as diuron equivalent concentration were an average factor of 2.3 times higher but mostly not significantly different (p<0.05) to the median for the long-term monitoring record. The herbicides metolachlor and tebuthiuron were frequently detected in flood plume waters at concentrations that reached or exceeded relevant water quality guidelines (by up to 4.5 times).     

New 40Ar/39Ar constraints for the “Grande Nappe”: The largest rhyolitic eruption from the Mont-Dore Massif (French Massif Central)

Since the 1960s, an early explosive activity in the Mont-Dore Massif is associated with a major pyroclastic rhyolitic eruption (5–7 km³) known as the “Grande Nappe” (GN). This event, linked to the formation of a 6-km-diameter cryptic caldera named “Haute Dordogne”, was before our investigation dated by ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar at 3.07 ± 0.04 Ma. Our new single-crystal laser fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dates obtained on two outcrops of the GN (Rochefort-Montagne and Ludières) questioned several hypotheses made concerning this “landmark” event of the Mont-Dore Massif history. We demonstrate that: (1) the GN rhyolitic eruption has occurred much later than previously estimated (i.e. 2.77 ± 0.02–0.07 Ma full external uncertainties); (2) the correlation made between the Vendeix rhyolitic complexes (intra-caldera position) dated back to 2.74 ± 0.04 Ma and the GN is proposed; (3) xenocryst contamination could be very high (i.e. 70% for the Rochefort-Montagne GN outcrop) and explains the noticeable older age obtained previously; (4) a link between the GN eruption and the formation of a caldera is questionable; the hypothesis of a northward-oriented blast channeled eastward toward the paleo-Allier River is thus proposed.     

Out there and in here: studying Eastern Europe in the West

This paper seeks to explore the challenge of studying geographies of Eastern Europe in Western Europe. It reflects on the growing relationships – imagined and material – between Eastern and Western Europe and engages in contemporary debates over 'relational geographies' to make a case for geographies which imagine our plural, European spatial connections, which connect different parts of the continent and which encourage the re-examination and renegotiation of ideas across East and West in the post-Cold War world. In these ways, the paper borrows from postcolonial frameworks and the ongoing reassessment of area studies to call for studies of Eastern and Western Europe which reinvigorate our "sense of Europe".     

Lacustrine ostracodes as hydrochemical indicators in lakes of the north-central United States

The modern ostracode distribution in lakes of the north-central United States shows how ostracode abundances are related to concentrations of major ions such as calcium, sulfate, and bicarbonate. These relationships are quantified for species living in lakes that range from fresh water (200 S cm^-1) to saline water (17 000 S cm^-1). Lakes located in the Minnesota forests have different ostracode assemblages and different water chemistry than lakes located on the prairie of North Dakota and South Dakota. These differences are attributed to differences in precipitation and rock-water interactions. Multivariate analyses of the ostracode and water chemistry data set indicate that different ostracode species are associated with different water types. For example, Limnocythere sappaensis and Heterocypris glaucus are found in bicarbonate-enriched sulfate-dominated waters, whereas Limnocythere staplini is found in bicarbonate-depleted sulfate-dominated waters. Candona ohioensis and Limnocythere itasca are found in fresh water, and Candona rawsoni is eurytopic and found in both bicarbonate-enriched and bicarbonate-depleted sulfate-dominated waters. Ostracodes can be used to identify changes in both ionic composition (solutes) and ionic concentration.This publication is the second of a series of papers presented at the Conference on Sedimentary and Paleolimnological Records of Saline Lakes. This Conference was held August 13–16, 1991 at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Canada. Dr Evans is serving as Guest Editor for this series.     

The relative importance of chlorophyll and colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) to the prediction of the diffuse attenuation coefficient in shallow estuaries

The availability of underwater light is a critical factor in the growth and abundance of primary producers in shallow embayments. The goal of this study was to examine the relative importance of factors influencing light availability in this type of water body. Many simulation models of aquatic ecosystems predict light attenuation from chlorophyll or phytoplankton stock. In the three southern New England sites studied here, no useful relationship was found to exist between chlorophyll and K_PAR (the diffuse attenuation coefficient of photosynthetically active radiation; Kirk 1994; Mobley 1994). In 40 of 53 cases, a regression of chlorophyll versus K_PAR was not statistically significant. Variation in K_PAR did demonstrate a correlation to salinity, implicating a freshwater source of light attenuating material. This was true even in a system with little freshwater inflow. Colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is one such terrestrial input that enters estuaries from their watersheds and can strongly influence the availability of light to aquatic primary producers. This study demonstrated that over 70% of the variability in the K_PAR coefficient can be attributed to CDOM in the shallow estuaries studied. This illustrates the need for improved model formulations that include CDOM in the prediction of light attenuation in shallow coastal systems. A new equation has been developed to predict K_PAR with CDOM.