Evaluation and modeling scouring and sedimentation around downstream of large dams

Flip buckets are often used at the end of chute spillways to dissipate energy and direct flow to submergence plunge pool and especially in large dams. Flip buckets with central deviation also are a specific and new design of these buckets that have a transverse slope and are mixed in plan with a curvature. In this paper, the experimental and numerical simulation study of sediment scouring in such flip bucket has been targeted. Extensive experimental data are obtained from physical model studies conducted at Water Research Institute, Iran. The flow field with various flood discharges in a range of Froude numbers (Fr?=?\(V/\sqrt {gh}\): 3.5–7.5) in Flow3D model was compared to experimental results obtained from a similar model. Analyzing the simulated models in the Flow3D model and comparing the results with the experimental model, the hydraulic parameters of the pressure, velocity and depth of flow are determined. Considering the accuracy of the numerical model in simulating bed scouring, this model can be used for similar cases in large dams. The results of the simulation model compare well with the experimental results in parameters of the maximum scour depth, profile scouring and the ridge height which accumulates around downstream of the scour hole. This investigation improves the understanding of bed topography effects of downstream dams in high-velocity jet impact based on experimental observations and simulation analysis.     

Exploring the potential of location-based social networks data as proxy variables in collective human mobility prediction models

The study of human mobility has gained much attention in recent years. To date, various models have been developed to predict human mobility patterns for intra- and/or inter-city cases. These models incorporate the populations as proxy variables in the place of real variables which cannot be observed easily. However, inaccuracies in predicting human mobility within cities are usually encountered. One source of inaccuracies in intra-city scenarios arises from the fact that cities’ populations are influenced by people from other areas. Therefore, population cannot be regarded as a good proxy variable for movement modeling. The objectives of this article are to introduce new proxy variables for use in current models for predicting human mobility patterns within cities, and to evaluate the accuracy of the predictions. In this study, we have introduced new proxy variables, namely, venues and check-ins, extracted from location-based social networks (LBSNs). In order to evaluate the models, we have compared our results with empirical data obtained from taxi vehicles, based on trip distances and destination population distributions. The Sørensen similarity index (SSI) and R-squared measures were also used to compare the performances of models using each variable. The results show that all models with LBSN variables can capture real human movements better within Manhattan, New York City. Our analytical results indicated that the predicted trips using LBSN data are more similar to the real trips, on average, by about 20% based on the SSI. Moreover, the R-squared measures obtained from regression analyses were enhanced significantly.     

Real-time Uncertain Geological Boundaries Updating for Improved Block Model Quality Control Based on Blast Hole Data: A Case Study for Golgohar Iron Ore Mine in Southeastern Iran

One main problem in the modeling of mineral deposits is to design a block model that divides the deposit into homogeneous subdomains. The spatial uncertainty in the geological boundaries becomes a critical factor prior to the modeling of the ore properties. For this reason, reducing the uncertainty of geological models leads to an improved mineral resource evaluation. This research work addresses the problem of updating the geological models by using actual online-sensor measurement data. A novel algorithm is provided, which integrates the discrete wavelet transform to the Ensemble Kalman Filter for assimilating online-sensor production data into geological models. The geological realizations in each time step are transformed to frequency coefficients and, after each assimilation step, the updated realizations are back-transformed to the original categorical distribution. Furthermore, a reconciliation process is performed to compare the online-sensor data derived from the production blocks and the updated realizations in each time step. The algorithm is illustrated through an application to the Golgohar iron deposit located in SW of Sirjan, Iran, and proves to reproduce the statistical parameters and connectivity values of the primary geological realizations.

     

A step beyond susceptibility: an adaptation of risk framework for monetary risk estimation of gully erosion

Natural Hazards - In an effort to improve the previous gully susceptibility assessments in Iran, we attempted to conglomerate the notions of susceptibility, vulnerability, and exposure associated...     

Simplified dynamic analysis to evaluate liquefaction-induced lateral deformation of earth slopes: a computational fluid dynamics approach

Lateral deformation of liquefiable soil is a cause of much damage during earthquakes, reportedly more than other forms of liquefaction-induced ground failures. Researchers have presented studies in which the liquefied soil is considered as viscous fluid. In this manner, the liquefied soil behaves as non-Newtonian fluid, whose viscosity decreases as the shear strain rate increases. The current study incorporates computational fluid dynamics to propose a simplified dynamic analysis for the liquefaction-induced lateral deformation of earth slopes. The numerical procedure involves a quasi-linear elastic model for small to moderate strains and a Bingham fluid model for large strain states during liquefaction. An iterative procedure is considered to estimate the strain-compatible shear stiffness of soil. The post-liquefaction residual strength of soil is considered as the initial Bingham viscosity. Performance of the numerical procedure is examined by using the results of centrifuge model and shaking table tests together with some field observations of lateral ground deformation. The results demonstrate that the proposed procedure predicts the time history of lateral ground deformation with a reasonable degree of precision.     

3D Design of Optimum Complementary Boreholes by Integrated Analysis of Various Exploratory Data Using a Sequential-MADM Approach

Natural Resources Research - Additional and complementary mineral exploration boreholes are often designed to obtain valuable information about mineralized intervals with the least cost. In this...     

Are There Differences in the Response of Natural Stand and Plantation Biomass to Changes in Temperature and Precipitation? A Case for Two-needled Pines in Eurasia

A comparative discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of natural stands and plantations, including in terms of their productivity and stability, began from the moment of the first forest plantings and continues to this day. In the context of the progressive replacement of natural forests by plantations due to deforestation, the question of how will change the carbon storage capacity of forest cover when replacing natural forests with artificial ones in a changing climate becomes extremely relevant. This article presents the first attempt to answer this question at the transcontinental level on a special case for two-needled pine trees (subgenus Pinus L.). The research was carried out using the database compiled by the authors on the single-tree biomass structure of forest-forming species of Eurasia, in particular, data of 1880 and 1967 of natural and plantation trees, respectively. Multi-factor regression models are calculated after combining the matrix of initial data on the structure of tree biomass with the mean January temperature and mean annual precipitation, and their adequacy indices allow us to consider them reproducible. It is found that the aboveground and stem biomass of equal-sized and equal-aged natural and plantation trees increases as the January temperature and precipitation rise. This pattern is only partially valid for the branches biomass, and it has a specific character for the foliage one. The biomass of all components of plantation trees is higher than that of natural trees, but the percent of this excess varies among different components and depends on the level of January temperatures, but does not depend at all on the level of annual precipitation. A number of uncertainties that arose during the modeling process, as well as the preliminary nature of the obtained regularities, are noted.     

Application of random forest time series,support vector regression and multivariate adaptive regression splines models in prediction of snowfall (a case study of Alvand in the middle Zagros,Iran)

We have conducted a case study to investigate the performance of support vector machine, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and random forest time series methods in snowfall modeling. These models were applied to a data set of monthly snowfall collected during six cold months at Hamadan Airport sample station located in the Zagros Mountain Range in Iran. We considered monthly data of snowfall from 1981 to 2008 during the period from October/November to April/May as the training set and the data from 2009 to 2015 as the testing set. The root mean square errors (RMSE), mean absolute errors (MAE), determination coefficient (R ²), coefficient of efficiency (E%), and intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) statistics were used as evaluation criteria. Our results indicated that the random forest time series model outperformed the support vector machine and multivariate adaptive regression splines models in predicting monthly snowfall in terms of several criteria. The RMSE, MAE, R ², E, and ICC for the testing set were 7.84, 5.52, 0.92, 0.89, and 0.93, respectively. The overall results indicated that the random forest time series model could be successfully used to estimate monthly snowfall values. Moreover, the support vector machine model showed substantial performance as well, suggesting it may also be applied to forecast snowfall in this area.     

Geometallurgical Domaining by Cluster Analysis: Iron Ore Deposit Case Study

Natural Resources Research - Geometallurgy integrates many aspects of geology, mineralogy, resource modeling, mine planning, metallurgy, and process control to optimize mining operations....     

Supergene Mass-Balance Study Assuming Zero Lateral Copper Flux Using Geostatistics to Recognize Metal Source Zones in Exotic Copper Deposits

Recognition of effective factors that influence the spatial extension of supergene weathering zones is important both for the identification of high potential areas of exotic deposits and for the cost-effective planning of mining. In particular, recognition of exotic mineralization around porphyry copper deposits early in mine development prevents them from being buried beneath mine infrastructures such as waste dump and tailing structures. Mass-balance modeling, a practical method for determining high potential areas of undiscovered exotic mineralization, investigates important factors in forming exotic deposits. Mass-balance modeling is a two-phase methodology that becomes progressively more detailed. An initial result, presented here as phase 1, is based solely on Cu assays. Phase 2 incorporates relict sulfide mineral studies to improve phase 1 modeling results and computes actual fluxes of copper that escaped vertically downward from the leached cap to form the enrichment blanket and then flowed laterally away to form exotic mineralization. In addition, geostatistical approaches, especially sequential Gaussian simulation, are useful tools for investigating the spatial relationships and modeling of mass-balance results in phase 1 studies. This paper introduces a method for interpolation and downscaling of the preliminary mass-balance analysis (phase 1) to highlight the role of geological features in the evolution of the supergene process. Using only copper assays without any need for relict sulfide mineralogy, this approach can be used to approximately identify the geographic direction of metal movement in exotic copper deposits, and thus serve as an initial exploration guide in prospecting for exotic deposits. For this, a vertical columnar block model was constructed for each of the supergene weathering zones and preliminary analysis of mass balance was conducted to reconstruct the apparent total leached zone column height assuming zero lateral flux. This analysis was applied to each of the vertical block model columns. The results of mass balance were interpolated in a 5?×?5 m grid by sequential Gaussian simulation method, and the simulated surface of the total leached zone was conflated with geological features. The roles of topography, argillic alteration and linear structures were identified in the transport of supergene solutions in the Miduk porphyry copper deposit of Iran. In the northern section of the deposit, which is in accordance with the topography gradient and the presence of advanced argillic alteration zone, the computed top total of leaching is below the actual surface topography, whereas the hypogene isograd curves confirm the expansion of primary copper in these areas. The northern section of the deposit was introduced as a susceptible area for the removal of copper-bearing solutions from the supergene enrichment system.