Seismicity constraints on stress regimes along Sinai subplate boundaries

The relative movement between African, Arabian and Eurasian plates has significantly controlled the tectonic process of Sinai subplate region, although its kinematics and precise boundaries are still doubtful. The respective subplate bounded on both sides by the Aqaba-Dead Sea transform fault to the east and the Gulf of Suez, the only defined part, to the west. Seismicity parameters, moment magnitude relation and fault plane solutions were combined to determine the active tectonics along the aforementioned boundaries. Seven shallow seismogenic zones were defined by the heterogeneity in stress field orientations. Along the eastern boundary, the average fault plane solution obtained from the moment tensor summation (MTS) reveals a sinistral strike-slip faulting mechanism. The corresponding seismic strain rate tensor showed that the present tectonic stress producing earthquakes along the boundary is dominated by both NW-SE compression and NE-SW dilatation. Towards the north, the average focal mechanism showed a normal faulting mechanism of N185°E compression and an N94°E extension in the Carmel Fairi seismic zone. On the other hand, the active crustal deformation along the western boundary (Gulf of Suez region) showed a prevailing tensional stress regime of NE to ENE orientations; producing an average fault plane solution of normal faulting mechanism. The seismic strain rate tensor reveals a dominant stress regime of N58°E extension and N145°E compression in consistence with the general tectonic nature in northeastern Africa. Finally, the extensional to strike-slip stress regimes obtained in the present study emphasize that the deformation accommodated along the Sinai subplate boundaries are in consistence with the kinematics models along the plate boundaries representing the northern extremity part of the Red Sea region.     

The use of feed-forward back propagation and cascade correlation for the neural network prediction of surface water quality parameters

Modeling of surface water quality based on a deductive approach is highly non-linear, varies with time, is spatially distributed and is difficult to incorporate as part of decision-support systems. A Neural Networks (NNs) procedure provides a reliable analysis in several science and technology fields. NNs are often applied to develop statistical models for intrinsically non-linear systems. In this investigation, NNs are used in the induction of a water quality model from available field measurements for the Bahr Hadus drain in the Eastern Egyptian Delta. Two models, namely, feed-forward back propagation (BP) and cascade correlation (CC), were used. It is concluded that the CCNN model produced slightly more accurate results and learned very quickly compared with the BP procedure. The results indicated that the NNs model could be used as a non-linear dynamic system model to encapsulate site-specific knowledge and emulate the temporal sequence of one-dimensional flow systems. This NNs model undoubtedly will reduce the cost and save time in this class of problems.     

A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sediment settling in the Latian Dam in Iran

Among the difficulties that influence future dam operations,reservoir sedimentation is the most problematic for engineers.This study predicted the amount and pattern of sedimentation for use in estimation of the useful lifespan of reservoirs and identification of optimal locations for outlets and intakes at the initial stages of dam design.Hydrographic surveys of different dams can provide better insight into this phenomenon.Latian Dam in Iran has conducted hydrographic surveys during 7 time periods.The amount and process of sedimentation in this reservoir were determined,and predictions of distribution of sediments were validated by well-known,common methods.The formation of a delta in the reservoir was investigated for different time periods after operation.Future problems due to the impacts of sedimentation on dam operation and the useful lifespan of the reservoir were predicted.In addition,the study results may be used for developing empirical methods to predict sedimentation patterns in other reservoirs.     

Prediction of magnitude of the largest potentially induced seismic event

We propose a method for determining the possible magnitude of a potentially largest induced seismic event derived from the Gutenberg–Richter law and an estimate of total released seismic moment. We emphasize that the presented relationship is valid for induced (not triggered) seismicity, as the total seismic moment of triggered seismicity is not bound by the injection. The ratio of the moment released by the largest event and weaker events is determined by the constants a and b of the Gutenberg–Richter law. We show that for a total released seismic moment, it is possible to estimate number of events greater than a given magnitude. We determine the formula for the moment magnitude of a probable largest seismic event with one occurrence within the recurrence interval (given by one volumetric change caused by mining or injecting). Finally, we compare theoretical and measured values of the moment magnitudes of the largest induced seismic events for selected geothermal and hydraulic fracturing projects.     

地貌特征对约旦南部阿尔阿加河(WadiAl-Arja)流域产沙影响分析(英文)

This study addresses the morphometric variables that determine the sediment yield in Wadi Al-Arja through the analysis of the impact of different morphometric characteristics along the course of the valley on its sediment yield, as well as the analysis of spatial and formal dimensions and morphologies of the basin and its relationship to the sediment yield. The study also addresses the size of variation in the volume of sediment yield of the river tributaries that make up the water network of the valley under the differences of its morphometric and hydrological characteristics. The study found several results, most notably: The classification of Wadi Al-Arja basin according to the hypsometric integral value(72.1%) within an uneven topography, which increases the force of the erosive activity and the size of the sediment yield if the basin was exposed to moist climatic periods. The study also showed the presence of convergence in the intra-spaces between the river tributaries in the water network. This increases the volume of water flows when these tributaries meet with each other and thus increasing their erosive ability and sediment yield. The study also showed the presence of marked variation in the sediment yield of the river tributaries depending on the differences in its morphometric characteristics. The results of the step-wise regression analysis confirmed the importance of the morphometric and hydrological variables, and plant coverage in interpreting the variation in the size of the sediment yield of the river tributaries of different stream order in Wadi Al-Arja basin, where these variables interpreted 43% of the total variation, with statistical significance less than 0.05.     

Robustness of the holistic seismic risk evaluation in urban centers using the USRi

The Urban Seismic Risk index (USRi) published in a previous article (Carreño et al., Nat Hazards 40:137–172, 2007) is a composite indicator that measures risk from an integrated perspective and guides decision-making for identifying the main interdisciplinary factors of vulnerability to be reduced or intervened. The first step of the method is the evaluation of the potential physical damage (hard approach) as a result of the convolution of the seismic hazard with the physical vulnerability of buildings and infrastructure. Subsequently, a set of social context conditions that aggravate the physical effects is also considered (soft approach). According to this procedure, the physical risk index is evaluated for each unit of analysis from existing loss scenarios, whereas the total risk index is obtained by multiplying the former index by an impact factor using an aggravating coefficient, based on variables associated with the socio-economic conditions of each unit of analysis. The USRi has been developed using the underlying holistic and multi-hazard approach of the Urban Risk Index framework proposed for the evaluation of disaster risk in different megacities worldwide. This article presents the sensitivity analysis of the index to different parameters such as input data, weights and transformation functions used for the scaling or normalization of variables. This analysis has been performed using the Monte Carlo simulation to validate the robustness of this composite indicator, understanding as robustness how the cities maintain the ranking as well as predefined risk level ranges, when compared with the deterministic results of risk. Results are shown for different cities of the world.     

Sea Level Variations and Geomorphological Changes in the Coastal Belt of Pakistan

The UNEP in its regional seas program in 1989 has included Pakistan in a group of countries which are vulnerable to the impact of rising sea level. If the present trend of sea level rise (SLR) at Karachi continues, in the next 50 years the sea level rise along the Pakistan Coast will be 50 mm (5 cm). Since the rising rates of sea level at Karachi are within the global range of 1-2 mm/year, the trends may be treated as eustatic SLR. Historical air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) data of Karachi also show an increasing pattern and an increasing trend of about 0.67°C has been registered in the air temperature over the last 35 years, whereas the mean SST in the coastal waters of Karachi has also registered an increasing trend of about 0.3°C in a decade. Sindh coastal zone is more vulnerable to sea level rise than Baluchistan coast, as uplifting of the coast by about 1-2 mm/year due to subduction of Indian Ocean plate is a characteristic of Baluchistan coast. Within the Indus deltaic creek system, the area nearby Karachi is more vulnerable to coastal erosion and accretion than the other deltaic region, mainly due to human activities together with natural phenomena such as wave action, strong tidal currents, and rise in sea level. Therefore, The present article deals mainly with the study of dynamical processes such as erosion and accretion associated with sea level variations along the Karachi coast and surrounding Indus deltaic coastline. The probable beach erosion in a decade along the sandy beaches of Karachi has been estimated. The estimates show that 1.1 mm/year rise in sea level causes a horizontal beach loss of 110 mm per year. Therefore, coast eroded with rise in sea level at Karachi and surrounding sandy beaches would be 1.1 m during a period of next 10 years. The northwestern part of Indus delta, especially the Gizri and Phitti creeks and surrounding islands, are most unstable. Historical satellite images are used to analyze the complex pattern of sediment movements, the change in shape of coastline, and associated erosion and accretion patterns in Bundal and Buddo Islands. The significant changes in land erosion and accretion areas at Bundal and Buddo Islands are evident and appear prominently in the images. A very high rate of accretion of sediments in the northwestern part of Buddo Island has been noticed. In the southwest monsoon season the wave breaking direction in both these islands is such that the movement of littoral drift is towards west. Erosion is also taking place in the northeastern and southern part of Bundal Island. The erosion in the south is probably due to strong wave activities and in the northeast is due to strong tidal currents and seawater intrusion. Accretion takes place at the northwest and western parts of Bundal Island. By using the slope of Indus delta, sea encroachment and the land area inundation with rising sea level of 1 m and 2 m have also been estimated.