Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.     

Weathering, dust, and biocycling effects on soil silicon isotope ratios

Silicon isotope ratios (δ³⁰Si) of bulk mineral materials in soil integrate effects from both silicon sources and processing. Here we report δ³⁰Si values from a climate gradient of Hawaiian soils developed on 170 ka basalt and relate them to patterns of soil chemistry and mineralogy. The results demonstrate informative relationships between the mass fraction of soil Si depletion and δ³⁰Si. In upper (<1 m deep) soil horizons along the climate gradient, Si depletion correlates with decreases of residual δ³⁰Si values in low rainfall soils and increases in high rainfall soils. Strong positive correlation between soil δ³⁰Si and dust-derived quartz and mica content show that both trends are largely controlled by the abundance of these weathering-resistant minerals. The data also lend support to the idea that fractionation of Si isotopes in secondary phases is controlled by partitioning of silicon between dissolved and precipitated products during the initial weathering of primary basalt. Secondary mineral δ³⁰Si values from lower (>1 m deep) soil horizons generally correlate with the isotope fractionation predicted by a study of dissolved Si in basalt-watershed rivers and driven by preferential ²⁸Si removal from the dissolved phase during precipitation. In contrast, after correcting for the influence of dust, secondary mineral Si depletion and δ³⁰Si values in shallow (<1 m deep) soil horizons showed evidence of biocycling induced Si redistribution and substantially lower δ³⁰Si values than predicted. Low δ³⁰Si values in shallow soil horizons compared to predictions can be attributed to repeated fractionation as secondary minerals undergo additional cycles of dissolution and precipitation. Primary mineral weathering, secondary mineral weathering, dust accumulation, and biocycling are major processes in terrestrial Si cycling and these results demonstrate that each can be traced by δ³⁰Si values interpreted in conjunction with mineralogy and measures of Si depletion.