Late Pleistocene outburst floods from Issyk Kul,Kyrgyzstan?

Elevated shorelines and lake sediments surrounding Issyk Kul, the world's second largest mountain lake, record fluctuating lake levels during Quaternary times. Together with bathymetric and geochemical data, these markers document alternating phases of lake closure and external drainage. The uppermost level of lake sediments requires a former damming of the lake's western outlet through the Boam gorge. We test previous hypothesised ice or landslide dam failures by exploring possible links between late Quaternary lake levels and outbursts. We review and recompile the chronology of reported changes in lake site, and offer new ages of abandoned shorelines using ¹⁴C in bivalve and gastropod shells, and plant detritus, as well as sand lenses in delta and river sediments using Infrared Stimulated Luminescence. Our dates are consistent with elevated lake levels between ~45 ka and 22 ka. Cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al exposure ages of fan terraces containing erratic boulders (>3 m) downstream of the gorge constrain the timing of floods to 20.5–18.5 ka, postdating a highstand of Issyk Kul. A flow‐competence analysis gives a peak discharge of >10⁴ m³ s^–1 for entraining and transporting these boulders. Palaeoflood modelling, however, shows that naturally dammed lakes unconnected to Issyk Kul could have produced such high discharges upon sudden emptying. Hence, although our data are consistent with hypotheses of catastrophic outburst floods, average lake‐level changes of up to 90 mm yr^–1 in the past 150 years were highly variable without any outbursts, so that linking lake‐level drops to catastrophic dam breaks remains ambiguous using sedimentary archives alone. This constraint may readily apply to other Quaternary lakes of that size elsewhere. Nonetheless, our reconstructed Pleistocene floods are among the largest reported worldwide, and motivate further research into the palaeoflood hydrology of Central Asia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Trends in the frequency of synoptic types in central-southern Chile in the period 1961–2012 using the Jenkinson and Collison synoptic classification

Atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Chile (42° 30′ S) were studied in order to determine and analyse the most characteristic synoptic types and their recent trends, as well as to gain an understanding of how they are associated with low-frequency variability patterns. According to the Jenkinson and Collison (J&C) classification method, a 16-point grid of sea-level pressure data was employed. The findings reveal that some synoptic types show statistically significant trends with a 95% confidence level, positively for anticyclonic westerly hybrids (AW) and advective types for third and fourth quadrant wind flows (W, NW, and N) and negatively for SW and cyclonic hybrids (CS and CSW). A model has been constructed of the linear regression of some weather types with teleconnections that most affect Chile: the undetermined types (U), AW were associated with El Niño or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas the cyclonic northerly and cyclonic northeasterly types (CN and CNE) were associated with La Niña or cool phase of the PDO. The weather types associated with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in its positive phase are anticyclonic northerly and northeasterly and northerly advection types, while in its negative phase are cyclonic southwesterly and advection types.     

The Swedish Geotechnical Society’s methodology for risk management: a tool for engineers in their everyday work

The Swedish Geotechnical Society has adopted a general methodology for risk management in geotechnical engineering projects to reduce the costs related to negative outcomes of geotechnical risks. This technical note highlights the main features of the methodology and strives to inspire the international geotechnical community to apply sensible risk management methods. In the authors’ opinion, a successful geotechnical risk management needs to be structured, be tailored to the project, and permeate the engineers’ everyday work. Then, sufficient quality can be achieved in the project with larger probability.     

Two-dimensional modelling of some CFC replacement compounds

The Cambridge 2-D Eulerian model has been used to study the potential atmospheric distributions and lifetimes of a number of CFC replacement compounds and their degradation products. The study has focused on HFC 134a and HCFCs 123, 141b and 142b and the major products formed by their atmospheric degradation. The loss of these compounds and their products by hydroxyl radical attack, photolysis and in-cloud hydrolysis have been investigated. The study has shown that HCFCs 141b and 142b have sufficiently long lifetimes to enter the stratosphere in significant quantities, where degradation leads to an increase in the total stratospheric chlorine concentration. The study has also highlighted areas where further experimental work would be valuable, in particular characterisation of the product channels for the degradation reactions and determination of the removal rates of the products in the aqueous phase.     

Methodology and use of tensor invariants for satellite gravity gradiometry

Although its use is widespread in several other scientific disciplines, the theory of tensor invariants is only marginally adopted in gravity field modeling. We aim to close this gap by developing and applying the invariants approach for geopotential recovery. Gravitational tensor invariants are deduced from products of second-order derivatives of the gravitational potential. The benefit of the method presented arises from its independence of the gradiometer instrument’s orientation in space. Thus, we refrain from the classical methods for satellite gravity gradiometry analysis, i.e., in terms of individual gravity gradients, in favor of the alternative invariants approach. The invariants approach requires a tailored processing strategy. Firstly, the non-linear functionals with regard to the potential series expansion in spherical harmonics necessitates the linearization and iterative solution of the resulting least-squares problem. From the computational point of view, efficient linearization by means of perturbation theory has been adopted. It only requires the computation of reference gravity gradients. Secondly, the deduced pseudo-observations are composed of all the gravitational tensor elements, all of which require a comparable level of accuracy. Additionally, implementation of the invariants method for large data sets is a challenging task. We show the fundamentals of tensor invariants theory adapted to satellite gradiometry. With regard to the GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer) satellite gradiometry mission, we demonstrate that the iterative parameter estimation process converges within only two iterations. Additionally, for the GOCE configuration, we show the invariants approach to be insensitive to the synthesis of unobserved gravity gradients.     

Efficient GOCE satellite gravity field recovery based on least-squares using QR decomposition

We develop and apply an efficient strategy for Earth gravity field recovery from satellite gravity gradiometry data. Our approach is based upon the Paige-Saunders iterative least-squares method using QR decomposition (LSQR). We modify the original algorithm for space-geodetic applications: firstly, we investigate how convergence can be accelerated by means of both subspace and block-diagonal preconditioning. The efficiency of the latter dominates if the design matrix exhibits block-dominant structure. Secondly, we address Tikhonov-Phillips regularization in general. Thirdly, we demonstrate an effective implementation of the algorithm in a high-performance computing environment. In this context, an important issue is to avoid the twofold computation of the design matrix in each iteration. The computational platform is a 64-processor shared-memory supercomputer. The runtime results prove the successful parallelization of the LSQR solver. The numerical examples are chosen in view of the forthcoming satellite mission GOCE (Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer). The closed-loop scenario covers 1 month of simulated data with 5 s sampling. We focus exclusively on the analysis of radial components of satellite accelerations and gravity gradients. Our extensions to the basic algorithm enable the method to be competitive with well-established inversion strategies in satellite geodesy, such as conjugate gradient methods or the brute-force approach. In its current development stage, the LSQR method appears ready to deal with real-data applications.