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11.
Pablo?SarricoleaEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Oliver?Meseguer-Ruiz Javier?Martín-Vide Luis?Outeiro 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,134(1-2):193-204
Atmospheric circulation patterns in southern Chile (42° 30′ S) were studied in order to determine and analyse the most characteristic synoptic types and their recent trends, as well as to gain an understanding of how they are associated with low-frequency variability patterns. According to the Jenkinson and Collison (J&C) classification method, a 16-point grid of sea-level pressure data was employed. The findings reveal that some synoptic types show statistically significant trends with a 95% confidence level, positively for anticyclonic westerly hybrids (AW) and advective types for third and fourth quadrant wind flows (W, NW, and N) and negatively for SW and cyclonic hybrids (CS and CSW). A model has been constructed of the linear regression of some weather types with teleconnections that most affect Chile: the undetermined types (U), AW were associated with El Niño or the warm phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), whereas the cyclonic northerly and cyclonic northeasterly types (CN and CNE) were associated with La Niña or cool phase of the PDO. The weather types associated with Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in its positive phase are anticyclonic northerly and northeasterly and northerly advection types, while in its negative phase are cyclonic southwesterly and advection types. 相似文献
12.
Eric C. J. Oliver 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(1-2):401-416
Intraseasonal variability of the tropical Indo-Pacific ocean is strongly related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). Shallow seas in this region, such as the Gulf of Thailand, act as amplifiers of the direct ocean response to surface wind forcing by efficient setup of sea level. Intraseasonal ocean variability in the Gulf of Thailand region is examined using statistical analysis of local tide gauge observations and surface winds. The tide gauges detect variability on intraseasonal time scales that is related to the MJO through its effect on local wind. The relationship between the MJO and the surface wind is strongly seasonal, being most vigorous during the monsoon, and direction-dependent. The observations are then supplemented with simulations of sea level and circulation from a fully nonlinear barotropic numerical ocean model (Princeton Ocean Model). The numerical model reproduces well the intraseasonal sea level variability in the Gulf of Thailand and its seasonal modulations. The model is then used to map the wind-driven response of sea level and circulation in the entire Gulf of Thailand. Finally, the predictability of the setup and setdown signal is discussed by relating it to the, potentially predictable, MJO index. 相似文献
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Robert S. Sommer Norbert Benecke Lembi Lõugas Oliver Nelle Ulrich Schmölcke 《第四纪科学杂志》2011,26(8):805-812
The wild horse Equus ferus was one of the most frequent species of the Late Pleistocene large ungulate fauna in Eurasia and played an important role in the subsistence of human groups, especially at the end the Late Glacial. It is frequently assumed that E. ferus became extinct in Europe at the beginning of the Holocene because of the development of woodlands and loss of open habitats. Because of its preference for open habitats and in spite of its adaptability, the appearance or disappearance of the wild horse could therefore be a suitable palaeoecological indicator for the opening of the Holocene primeval woodlands. We revised the dating and reliability of the subfossil record and dated several bones by atomic mass spectrometry 14C dating. From the beginning of the Holocene (9600 cal a BC) to the end of the Atlantic Period (3750 cal a BC) there are 207 archaeological sites with wild horse records available in Europe. E. ferus survived the Pleistocene Holocene transition in Europe, but the spatiotemporal dynamics of populations fluctuated remarkably in the early and middle Holocene. Small and sparse populations increasingly became extinct during the early Holocene, until between 7100 and 5500 cal a BC the wild horse was almost absent in central parts of the European Lowlands. Particular conditions in natural open patches in the canopy forests, chalklands and floodplains may have maintained the local survival of the horse in some regions of the Lowlands, however. In the Late Atlantic, between 5500 and 3750 cal a BC the range of the wild horse was again extended. It re‐immigrated into central and western Europe, probably as a consequence of increasing landscape opening by Neolithic peoples. The data presented here may be a valuable part of the debate on the degree of openness of the early and middle Holocene landscape. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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In principle, many climate policymakers have accepted that large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to meet the Paris Agreement’s mitigation targets, but they have avoided proposing by whom CDR might be delivered. Given its role in international climate policy, the European Union (EU) might be expected to lead the way. But among EU climate policymakers so far there is little talk on CDR, let alone action. Here we assess how best to ‘target’ CDR to motivate EU policymakers exploring which CDR target strategy may work best to start dealing with CDR on a meaningful scale. A comprehensive CDR approach would focus on delivering the CDR volumes required from the EU by 2100, approximately at least 50 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO2, according to global model simulations aiming to keep warming below 2°C. A limited CDR approach would focus on an intermediate target to deliver the CDR needed to reach ‘net zero emissions’ (i.e. the gross negative emissions needed to offset residual positive emissions that are too expensive or even impossible to mitigate). We argue that a comprehensive CDR approach may be too intimidating for EU policymakers. A limited CDR approach that only addresses the necessary steps to reach the (intermediate) target of ‘net zero emissions’ is arguably more achievable, since it is a better match to the existing policy paradigm and would allow for a pragmatic phase-in of CDR while avoiding outright resistance by environmental NGOs and the broader public.
Key policy insights
Making CDR an integral part of EU climate policy has the potential to significantly reshape the policy landscape.
Burden sharing considerations would probably play a major role, with comprehensive CDR prolonging the disparity and tensions between progressives and laggards.
Introducing limited CDR in the context of ‘net zero’ pathways would retain a visible primary focus on decarbonization but acknowledge the need for a significant enhancement of removals via ‘natural’ and/or ‘engineered’ sinks.
A decarbonization approach that intends to lead to a low level of ‘residual emissions’ (to be tackled by a pragmatic phase-in of CDR) should be the priority of EU climate policy.
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The Halls Creek Orogen in northern Australia records the Palaeoproterozoic collision of the Kimberley Craton with the North Australian Craton. Integrated structural, metamorphic and geochronological studies of the Tickalara Metamorphics show that this involved a protracted episode of high‐temperature, low‐pressure metamorphism associated with intense and prolonged mafic and felsic intrusive activity in the interval ca 1850–1820 Ma. Tectonothermal development of the region commenced with an inferred mantle perturbation event, probably at ca 1880 Ma. This resulted in the generation of mafic magmas in the upper mantle or lower crust, while upper crustal extension preceded the rapid deposition of the Tickalara sedimentary protoliths. An older age limit for these rocks is provided by a psammopelitic gneiss from the Tickalara Metamorphics, which yield a 207Pb/206Pb SHRIMP age of 1867 ± 4 Ma for the youngest detrital zircon suite. Voluminous layered mafic intrusives were emplaced in the middle crust at ca 1860–1855 Ma, prior to the attainment of lower granulite facies peak metamorphic conditions in the middle crust. Locally preserved layer‐parallel D1 foliations that were developed during prograde metamorphism were pervasively overprinted by the dominant regional S2 gneissosity coincident with peak metamorphism. Overgrowths on zircons record a metamorphic 207Pb/206Pb age of 1845 ± 4 Ma. The S2 fabric is folded around tight folds and cut by ductile shear zones associated with D3 (ca 1830 Ma), and all pre‐existing structures are folded around large‐scale, open F4 folds (ca 1820 Ma). Construction of a temperature‐time path for the mid‐crustal section exposed in the central Halls Creek Orogen, based on detailed SHRIMP zircon data, key field relationships and petrological evidence, suggests the existence of one protracted thermal event (>400–500°C for 25–30 million years) encompassing two deformation phases. Protoliths to the Tickalara Metamorphics were relatively cold (~350°C) when intruded by the Fletcher Creek Granite at ca 1850 Ma, but were subsequently heated rapidly to 700–800°C during peak metamorphism at ca 1845 Ma. Repeated injection of mafic magmas caused multiple remelting of the metasedimentary wall rocks, with mappable increases in leucosome volume that show a strong spatial relationship to these intrusives. This mafic igneous activity prolonged the elevated geotherm and ensured that the rocks remained very hot (≥650°C) for at least 10 million years. The Mabel Downs Tonalite was emplaced during amphibolite facies metamorphism, with intrusion commencing at ca 1835 Ma. Its compositional heterogeneity, and the presence of mutual cross‐cutting relations between ductile shear zones and multiple injections of mingled magma suggest that it was emplaced syn‐D3. Broad‐scale folding attributable to F4 was accompanied by widespread intrusion of granitoids, and F4 fold limbs are truncated by large, mostly brittle retrograde S4 shear zones. 相似文献
19.
Abstract This paper experimentally investigates the convective planform near critical in a fluid layer whose temperature-dependent viscosity varies from top to bottom by up to a factor of 1500. Convection occurs in three different planforms: rolls, hexagons and squares. The square planform, which appears only for fluids with viscosity variation greater than about 50, replaces the hexagonal convection pattern as the Rayleigh number increases much above critical. The large amplitude of hexagonal convection with strong viscosity variation precludes studying the hexagon-square transition with perturbation methods of the type used to study the hexagon-roll transitions at smaller viscosity variations. 相似文献
20.
Nicole Vatin-Prignon Pierre Goemans Richard A. Oliver Eduardo Parra Palacio 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1990,41(1-4)
Trace-element concentrations of the eruptive products from the Nevado del Ruiz volcano indicate that at least for the last 1 Ma, the major controlling factor in the evolution of the magma has been a simple fractional crystallization.The Zr/Hf ratios suggest that the source material is mantle-like in origin and whilst subduction-related contamination of the source material has taken place, there is no evidence that assimilation of continental crust has affected the series.No convincing geochemical evidence for magma mixing was found, and data on banded pumices of Pleistocene, Historic and the 1985 eruptions strongly support a crystal fractionation model to explain the compositional variation of their glasses. Therefore, if mixing has taken place it can only be a mixing of layers within a stratified or partially stratified magma chamber.Modeling of fractional crystallization using a stepwise program has been undertaken and least-squares approximations with small residuals are commensurate with analyzed samples. Crystal fractionation models with plagioclase dominating two-pyroxenes and iron oxides give good fits for all calculations. We conclude that simple crystal fractionation is the process most consistent with major- and trace-element variations in the Ruiz series. This closed-system model requires at least 77% crystal fractionation of a basaltic parent to generate the observed compositions of dacites. 相似文献