Gradient-based Pareto optimal history matching for noisy data of multiple types

The advantages of the simultaneous integration of production and time-lapse seismic data for history matching have been demonstrated in a number of previous studies. Production data provide accurate observations at particular spatial locations (wells), while seismic data enable global, though filtered/noisy, estimates of state variables. In this work, we present an efficient computational tool for bi-objective history matching, in which data misfits for both production and seismic measurements are minimized using an adjoint-gradient approach. This enables us to obtain a set of Pareto optimal solutions defining the optimal trade-off between production and seismic data misfits (which are, to some extent, conflicting). The impact of noise structure and noise level on Pareto optimal solutions is investigated in detail. We discuss the existence of the “best” trade-off solution, or least-conflicting posterior model, which corresponds to the history-matched model that is expected to provide the least-conflicting forecast of future reservoir performance. The overall framework is successfully applied in 2D and 3D compositional simulation problems to provide a single least-conflicting posterior model and, for the 2D case, multiple samples from the posterior distribution using the randomized maximum likelihood method.     

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Isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon in subsurface sediments of gas hydrate-bearing mud volcanoes, Lake Baikal: implications for methane and carbonate origin

We report on the isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in pore-water samples recovered by gravity coring from near-bottom sediments at gas hydrate-bearing mud volcanoes/gas flares (Malenky, Peschanka, Peschanka 2, Goloustnoe, and Irkutsk) in the Southern Basin of Lake Baikal. The δ¹³C values of DIC become heavier with increasing subbottom depth, and vary between ?9.5 and +21.4‰ PDB. Enrichment of DIC in ¹³C indicates active methane generation in anaerobic environments near the lake bottom. These data confirm our previous assumption that crystallization of carbonates (siderites) in subsurface sediments is a result of methane generation. Types of methanogenesis (microbial methyl-type fermentation versus CO₂-reduction) were revealed by determining the offset of δ¹³C between dissolved CH₄ and CO₂, and also by using δ¹³C and δD values of dissolved methane present in the pore waters. Results show that both mechanisms are most likely responsible for methane generation at the investigated locations.     

Development of Oil and Gas Resources of Russia’s Arctic zone

The article dwells on the problems associated with the development of oil and gas Arctic region of Russia. It also suggests possibilities of their solution based on sociological studies conducted by the authors of representative samples in 2005, 2010 and 2015. Stressing the role and significance of sociological research in the general problem of the circumpolar regions by scientific study, the authors show the need for a sociological diagnosis in the context of different social groups. By doing so, characteristics of social problems inherent to the arctic region and requirements for scientific support of possible technologies is identified.     

Rift zone reorganization through flank instability in ocean island volcanoes: an example from Tenerife, Canary Islands

The relationship between rift zones and flank instability in ocean island volcanoes is often inferred but rarely documented. Our field data, aerial image analysis, and ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar chronology from Anaga basaltic shield volcano on Tenerife, Canary Islands, support a rift zone—flank instability relationship. A single rift zone dominated the early stage of the Anaga edifice (~6–4.5 Ma). Destabilization of the northern sector led to partial seaward collapse at about ~4.5 Ma, resulting in a giant landslide. The remnant highly fractured northern flank is part of the destabilized sector. A curved rift zone developed within and around this unstable sector between 4.5 and 3.5 Ma. Induced by the dilatation of the curved rift, a further rift-arm developed to the south, generating a three-armed rift system. This evolutionary sequence is supported by elastic dislocation models that illustrate how a curved rift zone accelerates flank instability on one side of a rift, and facilitates dike intrusions on the opposite side. Our study demonstrates a feedback relationship between flank instability and intrusive development, a scenario probably common in ocean island volcanoes. We therefore propose that ocean island rift zones represent geologically unsteady structures that migrate and reorganize in response to volcano flank instability.Editorial responsibility: T. DruittThis revised version was published online in February 2005 with typographical corrections and a changed wording.     

Argon retentivity and argon excess in amphiboles from the garbenschists of the Western Tauern Window,Eastern Alps

22 hornblende K-Ar ages and 10 ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar spectra were obtained for hornblende garbenschists from the Western Tauern Window. The post-kinematic amphiboles were produced during the late Alpine prograde metamorphism (6–10 kb and 500–570° C). Two nearly potassiumfree cummingtonites rimming hornblende yield K-Ar ages of 120 Ma, while the 20 tschermakitic hornblendes scatter between 17 and 37 Ma. The reason for this scatter is excess Ar, possibly incorporated into amphiboles during healing of fractures, now traceable by trails of fluid inclusions. Excess Ar is semiquantitatively corrected for by combining cogenetic hornblende and cummingtonite with K-Ar isochrons. It can be quantified in 4 out of 10 hornblendes by ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar stepwise heating experiments. Ages of 18–20 Ma result for corrected hornblendes. The retentivity of ⁴⁰Ar, after correction for excess, shows no correlation with chemistry within the narrow compositional range observed; rather, it shows intriguing correlations with irregularities in Ca/K spectra, pointing to a microstructurally controlled mechanism for Ar loss. This observation leads to a critical evaluation of the closure temperature constant, which apparently depends on an incompletely known number of mineralogical and environmental parameters. In particular those ³⁹Ar-⁴⁰Ar release spectra which yield low temperature steps with younger ages than the plateaus are not interpretable in terms of a synchronous closure. This gives evidence that loss of radiogenic isotopes proceeds by a more complex mechanism than simple volume diffusion through isotropic media.     

Slip Sequences in Laboratory Experiments Resulting from Inhomogeneous Shear as Analogs of Earthquakes Associated with a Fault Edge

Faults are intrinsically heterogeneous with common occurrences of jogs, edges and steps. We therefore explore experimentally and theoretically how fault edges may affect earthquake and slip dynamics. In the presented experiments and accompanying theoretical model, shear loads are applied to the edge of one of two flat blocks in frictional contact that form a fault analog. We show that slip occurs via a sequence of rapid rupture events that initiate from the loading edge and are arrested after propagating a finite distance. Each successive event extends the slip size, transfers the applied shear across the block, and causes progressively larger changes of the contact area along the contact surface. Resulting from this sequence of events, a hard asperity is dynamically formed near the loaded edge. The contact area beyond this asperity is largely reduced. These sequences of rapid events culminate in slow slip events that precede a major, unarrested slip event along the entire contact surface. We suggest that the 1998 M5.0 Sendai and 1995 off-Etorofu earthquake sequences may correspond to this scenario. Our work demonstrates, qualitatively, how the simplest deviation from uniform shear loading may significantly affect both earthquake nucleation processes and how fault complexity develops.     

Steric Sea-Level Change and its Impact on the Gravity Field caused by Global Climate Change

It is sometimes assumed that steric sea-level variations do not produce a gravity signal as no net mass change, thus no change of ocean bottom pressure is associated with it. Analyzing the output of two CO₂ emission scenarios over a period of 2000 years in terms of steric sea-level changes, we try to quantify the gravitational effect of steric sea-level variations. The first scenario, computed with version 2.6 of the Earth System Climate Model developed at the University of Victoria, Canada (UVic ESCM), is implemented with a linear CO₂ increase of 1% of the initial concentration of 365 ppm and shows a globally averaged steric effect of 5.2 m after 2000 years. In the second scenario, computed with UVic ESCM version 2.7, the CO₂ concentration increases quasi-exponentially to a level of 3011 ppm and is hold fixed afterwards. The corresponding globally averaged steric effect in the first 2000 years is 2.3 m. We show, due to the (vertical) redistribution of ocean water masses (expansion or contraction), the steric effect results also in a small change in the Earth’s gravity field compared to usually larger changes associated with net mass changes. Maximum effects for computation points located on the initial ocean surface can be found in scenario 1, with the effect on gravitational attraction and potential ranging from 0.0 to −0.7·10⁻⁵ m s⁻² and −3·10⁻³ to 6·10⁻³ m² s⁻², respectively. As expected, the effect is not zero but negligible for practical applications.     

Predicting changes in alluvial channel patterns in North-European Russia under conditions of global warming

Global climate change may have a noticeable impact on the northern environment, leading to changes in permafrost, vegetation and fluvial morphology. In this paper we compare the results from three geomorphological models and study the potential effects of changing climatic factors on the river channel types in North-European Russia. Two of the selected models by Romashin [Romashin, V.V., 1968. Variations of the river channel types under governing factors, Annals of the Hydrological Institute, vol. 155. Hydrometeoizdat, Leningrad, pp. 56–63.] and Leopold and Wolman [Leopold, L.B., Wolman, M.G., 1957. River channel pattern: braided, meandering and straight, Physiographic and hydraulic studies of rivers. USA Geological Survey Professional Paper 252, pp. 85–98.] are conventional QS-type models, which predict the existence of either multi-thread or single-tread channel types using data on discharge and channel slope. The more advanced model by Van den Berg [Van den Berg, J.H., 1995. Prediction of alluvial channel pattern of perennial rivers. Geomorphology 12, 259–270.] takes into account the size of the sediment material.We used data from 16 runoff gauges to validate the models and predict the channel types at selected locations under modern and predicted for the future climatic conditions. Two of the three models successfully replicated the currently existing channel types in all but one of the studied sites. Predictive calculations under the hypothetical scenarios of 10%, 15%, 20% and 35% runoff increase gave different results. Van den Berg's model predicted potential transformation of the channel types, from single- to multi-thread, at 4 of 16 selected locations in the next few decades, and at 5 locations by the middle of the 21st century. Each of the QS-type models predicted such transformation at one site only.Results of the study indicate that climatic warming in combination with other environmental changes may lead to transformation of the river channel types at selected locations in north-western Russia. Further efforts are needed to improve the performance of the fluvial geomorphological models and their ability to predict such changes.