Explorative data analysis of heavy metal contaminated soil using multidimensional spatial regression

To obtain data on heavy metal contaminated soil requires laborious and time-consuming data sampling and analysis. Not only has the contamination to be measured, but also additional data characterizing the soil and the boundary conditions of the site, such as pH, land use, and soil fertility. For an integrative approach, combining the analysis of spatial distribution, and of factors influencing the contamination, and its treatment, the Mollifier interpolation was used, which is a non-parametric kernel density regression. The Mollifier was capable of including additional independent variables (beyond the spatial dimensions x and y) in the spatial interpolation and hence explored the combined influence of spatial and other variables, such as land use, on the heavy metal distribution. The Mollifier could also represent the interdependence between different heavy metal concentrations and additional site characteristics. Although the uncertainty measure supplied by the Mollifier at first seems somewhat unusual, it is a valuable feature and supplements the geostatistical uncertainty assessment.     

Application of the geomechanical facies approach and comparison of exploration and evaluation methods used at Soultz-sous-Forêts (France) and Spa Urach (Germany) geothermal sites

Earth-reservoirs are increasingly exploited today with the extraction of resources, such as heat and hydrocarbons, and the large-scale emplacement of waste, such as CO₂ sequestration. The characterization, site investigation, predictive modeling and long-term monitoring are dependent on the processes being investigated and modeled. In most cases complex coupled processes have to be addressed in a geologically complex rock mass system. In this paper we present a conceptual holistic framework known as geomechanical facies linking all the scales of investigation, characterization and reservoir development methods. We demonstrate this concept on the work undertaken during the design and development of the enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) systems at the forefront of European Hot-Dry-Rock (HDR) technology, Soultz-sous-Forêts (France) and Spa Urach (Germany). Soultz-sous-Forêts is situated within granitic rocks and an active tectonic graben system in the central part of the Rhine Graben. It presents conditions of lithology, temperature, stress, hydraulics and geochemistry that are very different from those at Spa Urach, located in a very dense gneiss formation in the South German crystalline complex. Spa Urach exhibits more elastic behavior and is set tectonically within an almost inactive strike-slip stress field described in more detail in Sects. “Drill core analysis” and “Hydraulic stimulation at Spa Urach”. This paper compares the exploration and field development methods used at these two sites against the back drop of the geomechanical facies concept. Issues addressed include the key parameters for flow and heat transport properties, coupled hydro-mechanical process identification, the success of the HDR reservoir as a heat exchanger and exploration techniques applicable to the different facies. Identification of the key geomechanical facies gives an indication as to which technologies will prove more efficient in the application of HDR technology. The results of this study will hopefully help in developing heat recovery schemes for the long-term economical operation of future HDR plants and EGS as well as assist in the understanding of engineered geosystems.     

Spatial statistical techniques for aggregating point objects extracted from high spatial resolution remotely sensed imagery

 Using a local maximum filter, individual trees were extracted from a 1 m spatial resolution IKONOS image and represented as points. The spatial pattern of individual trees was determined to represent forest age (a surrogate for forest structure). Point attributes, based on the spatial pattern of trees, were generated via nearest neighbour statistics and used as the basis for aggregating points into forest structure units. The forest structure units allowed for the mapping of a forested area into one of three age categories: young (1–20 years), intermediate (21–120 years), and mature (>120 years). This research indicates a new approach to image processing, where objects generated from the processing of image data (rather than pixels or spectral values) are subjected to spatial statistical analysis to estimate an attribute relating an aspect of forest structure. Received: 22 April 2002 / Accepted: 23 November 2002     

Intelligent ship traffic monitoring for oil spill prevention: risk based decision support building on AIS

The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?".     

Winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events with regard to climate change in Germany

The development of winter storm- and summer thunderstorm-related loss events within the next decades in Germany was investigated with regard to change in frequency and intensity caused by climate changes. As a first step, observed meteorological data were connected with insurance data on a statistical basis. A regional climate model was then used to estimate future climate development. Using the statistical relations between meteorological and insurance data, the development of climate-driven damages was calculated. Results show that an increase of loss events can be expected within the next decades. These results show loss ratios shifting from higher return periods to smaller ones. In progressive decades, all these loss events become regionally more differentiated.     

Cirque glacier activity in arctic Norway during the last deglaciation

Numerous cirques of the Lofoten–Vesterålen archipelago in northern Norway have distinct moraine sequences that previously have been assigned to the Allerød-Younger Dryas ( 13,400 to 11,700 yr BP) interval, constraining the regional distribution of the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) of cirque and valley glaciers. Here we present evidence from a once glacier-fed lake on southern Andøya that contests this view. Analyses of radiocarbon dated lacustrine sediments including rock magnetic parameters, grain size, organic matter, dry bulk density and visual interpretation suggest that no glacier was present in the low-lying cirque during the Younger Dryas-Allerød. The initiation of the glacial retreat commenced with the onset of the Bølling warming ( 14,700 yr BP) and was completed by the onset of Allerød Interstade ( 13,400 yr BP). The reconstructed glacier stages of the investigated cirque coincide with a cool and dry period from  17,500 to 14,700 yr BP and a somewhat larger Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) advance possibly occurring between  21,050 and 19,100 yr BP.     

Methane in the southern North Sea: Sources, spatial distribution and budgets

Measurements of methane (CH₄) so far have always shown supersaturation in the entire North Sea relative to the atmospheric partial pressure and the distribution of surface CH₄ reveals a distinct increase towards the shore. Since North Sea sediments presumably are an insignificant source for CH₄ the coastal contribution via rivers and tidal flats gains in importance.In this work, CH₄ data from the River Weser, the back barrier tidal flats of Spiekeroog Island (NW Germany), and the German Bight are presented. Results from the River Weser are compared to other rivers draining into the German Bight. Measurements in the tidal flat area of Spiekeroog Island highlight this ecosystem as an additional contributor to the overall CH₄ budget of the southern North Sea. A tidally driven CH₄ pattern is observed for the water column with maximum values during low tide. Tidal flat sediments turn out to be the dominating source because pore waters discharged during low tide are highly enriched in CH₄. In contrast, the freshwater contribution to the tidal flats by small coastal tributaries has almost no impact on water column CH₄ concentrations. The CH₄ level seems to be disturbed irregularly by wind forcing due to elevated degassing and prevention of advective flow when tidal flats remain covered by water.Based on our data, two model calculations were used to estimate the impact of tidal flats on the CH₄ budget in the German Bight. Our results demonstrate that the back barrier tidal flats of the east Frisian Wadden Sea contribute CH₄ in an order of magnitude between the Wash estuary and River Elbe and thus have to be considered in budget calculations.