Science-based approach for credible accounting of mitigation in managed forests

Background

The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.

Results

Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO₂/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO₂/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.

Conclusions

Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.

     

Evaluation of gravitational curvatures of a tesseroid in spherical integral kernels

Proper understanding of how the Earth’s mass distributions and redistributions influence the Earth’s gravity field-related functionals is crucial for numerous applications in geodesy, geophysics and related geosciences. Calculations of the gravitational curvatures (GC) have been proposed in geodesy in recent years. In view of future satellite missions, the sixth-order developments of the gradients are becoming requisite. In this paper, a set of 3D integral GC formulas of a tesseroid mass body have been provided by spherical integral kernels in the spatial domain. Based on the Taylor series expansion approach, the numerical expressions of the 3D GC formulas are provided up to sixth order. Moreover, numerical experiments demonstrate the correctness of the 3D Taylor series approach for the GC formulas with order as high as sixth order. Analogous to other gravitational effects (e.g., gravitational potential, gravity vector, gravity gradient tensor), numerically it is found that there exist the very-near-area problem and polar singularity problem in the GC east–east–radial, north–north–radial and radial–radial–radial components in spatial domain, and compared to the other gravitational effects, the relative approximation errors of the GC components are larger due to not only the influence of the geocentric distance but also the influence of the latitude. This study shows that the magnitude of each term for the nonzero GC functionals by a grid resolution 15\(^{{\prime } }\,\times \) 15\(^{{\prime }}\) at GOCE satellite height can reach of about 10\(^{-16}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for zero order, 10\(^{-24 }\) or 10\(^{-23}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for second order, 10\(^{-29}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for fourth order and 10\(^{-35}\) or 10\(^{-34}\) m\(^{-1}\) s\(^{2}\) for sixth order, respectively.     

Determination of Phobos’ rotational parameters by an inertial frame bundle block adjustment

A functional model for a bundle block adjustment in the inertial reference frame was developed, implemented and tested. This approach enables the determination of rotation parameters of planetary bodies on the basis of photogrammetric observations. Tests with a self-consistent synthetic data set showed that the implementation converges reliably toward the expected values of the introduced unknown parameters of the adjustment, e.g., spin pole orientation, and that it can cope with typical observational errors in the data. We applied the model to a data set of Phobos using images from the Mars Express and the Viking mission. With Phobos being in a locked rotation, we computed a forced libration amplitude of \(1.14^\circ \pm 0.03^\circ \) together with a control point network of 685 points.     

Generating GPS satellite fractional cycle bias for ambiguity-fixed precise point positioning

With the development of precise point positioning (PPP), the School of Geodesy and Geomatics (SGG) at Wuhan University is now routinely producing GPS satellite fractional cycle bias (FCB) products with open access for worldwide PPP users to conduct ambiguity-fixed PPP solution. We provide a brief theoretical background of PPP and present the strategies and models to compute the FCB products. The practical realization of the two-step (wide-lane and narrow-lane) FCB estimation scheme is described in detail. With GPS measurements taken in various situations, i.e., static, dynamic, and on low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, the quality of FCB estimation and the effectiveness of PPP ambiguity resolution (AR) are evaluated. The comparison with CNES FCBs indicated that our FCBs had a good consistency with the CNES ones. For wide-lane FCB, almost all the differences of the two products were within ±0.05 cycles. For narrow-lane FCB, 87.8 % of the differences were located between ±0.05 cycles, and 97.4 % of them were located between ±0.075 cycles. The experimental results showed that, compared with conventional ambiguity-float PPP, the averaged position RMS of static PPP can be improved from (3.6, 1.4, 3.6) to (2.0, 1.0, 2.7) centimeters for ambiguity-fixed PPP. The average accuracy improvement in the east, north, and up components reached 44.4, 28.6, and 25.0 %, respectively. A kinematic, ambiguity-fixed PPP test with observation of 80 min achieved a position accuracy of better than 5 cm at the one-sigma level in all three coordinate components. Compared with the results of ambiguity-float, kinematic PPP, the positioning biases of ambiguity-fixed PPP were improved by about 78.2, 20.8, and 65.1 % in east, north, and up. The RMS of LEO PPP test was improved by about 23.0, 37.0, and 43.0 % for GRACE-A and GRACE-B in radial, tangential, and normal directions when AR was applied to the same data set. These results demonstrated that the SGG FCB products can be produced with high quality for users anywhere around the world to carry out ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions.     

Characterization and quantification of data voids in the shuttle Radar topography mission data

The goal of this study was to characterize and quantify the occurrence of data voids in data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) for the conterminous United States. For this purpose, SRTM data and corresponding data from the national elevation data were downloaded in 21 samples spatially organized to cover the main topography of the U.S. Void locations in SRTM data were compared to terrain attributes and subsequently the area of individual data voids to the same attributes. It was found that data voids amounted to 0.3% of the total dataset. Data voids were found in all topographic settings but more often in slopes steeper than approximately 20/spl deg/ that face south (170/spl deg/), and also in flat areas such as lakes and rivers. It was also found that more than 50% of all data voids were composed of connected pixels in groups less than six pixels. The largest data voids could be attributed to water bodies, while the rest could be explained by terrain-radar interaction characteristics.     

Change in cloud-top temperatures over Europe

Long-term measurements from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites were evaluated to assess variability in cloud-top temperatures over central and eastern Europe that saw radical infrastructural changes after the fall of the East Bloc in 1989 that has affected the pollution levels and hence cloud albedo. Four years in the late 1980s (1985-1988) and in the late 1990s (1997-2000) were chosen, as these are distinctively marked as episodes of very high and lower air pollution (sulphates and particulate matter). During the late 1980s, low- and medium-level clouds were colder by more than 2 K and convective clouds even by 4 K. Cloud-tops over and around polluted regions are higher, and their temperatures showed stronger variability, suggesting an indirect aerosol effect in the thermal spectral range as well.     

An intelligent agent based on virtual geographic environment system

On the basis of previous work, this paper designs an intelligent agent based on virtual geographic environment (VGE) system that is characterized by huge data, rapid computation, multi-user, multi-thread and intelligence and issues challenges to traditional GIS models and algorithms. The new advances in software and hardware technology lay a reliable basis for system design, development and application.     

Implementation of OGC web map service based on web service

OGC Web Map Service is one kind of OGC Portrayal Services belongs to OGC Web Service model and it provides multi-platform interoperability of spatial data set. This paper presents a method for implementing OGC Web Map Service based on Web Service technique and introduces the detailed process.     

Virtual reality and its application to slide annimation of landslide

A few researches adopt virtual reality in landslide. So it is significant to combine the physicsbased deformable method with the process simulation of a sliding landslide, this way the dynamic process of a going landslide can be simulated. The analysis of the dynamic law of landslide provides a foundation to forecast and make it realiable to foretell disasters. After recounting the condition of VR and landsliding body simulation, this paper puts forward simulating landslide by the physics-based deformable method. The method divides landsliding into deformable body and rigid one. The deformation of deformable body can be compute by DDA and FEM, and DDA fits the great deformation and FEM is good for the tiny deformation. This paper shows it is feasible to simulate the landslide animation by this method.