New insight into the factors leading to the 1998 flank collapse and lahar disaster at Casita volcano,Nicaragua

During unusually high rainfall associated with Hurricane Mitch in 1998, a flank collapse leading to a disastrous lahar occurred at Casita volcano, Nicaragua. The lack of a similar failure during a rainfall event of comparable magnitude in 1982 (Tropical Storm Alleta) suggests that additional factors influenced the 1998 collapse. We have investigated the potential contribution of erosional flank undercutting, seismic activity and anthropogenic land-cover change at the collapse site. Except for seismic events prior to Mitch, which may have increased flank instability, none of these factors appears significant. Instead, for failure to occur, the following conditions were required: (1) highly fractured slope material allowing deep and rapid infiltration of meteoric water, (2) a less permeable underlying layer to obstruct drainage, (3) strong, continuous antecedent rainfall to build up high pore-water pressure, and (4) episodic, high-intensity precipitation during Mitch to generate recurrent pressure waves. Prerequisite (1) was provided by edifice-wide deformation towards the south-east, seismic activity and proximity to a prominent fault, and local subsidence. Condition (2) was met by clay-rich layers resulting from hydrothermal alteration. More than 1,900 mm of rain fell in the 6 months prior to Mitch without significant interruption, while intense episodic precipitation occurred during the hurricane, satisfying conditions (3) and (4), respectively. The main difference with Alleta was that it occurred at the beginning of the rainy season and, therefore, without sufficient antecedent rainfall. Anthropogenic activity, including land-cover change, did not affect slope stability (i.e. the hazard). However, vulnerability was generated when two towns were established in the lowlands south of Casita, on top of previous lahar deposits. It was greatly increased when approximately 4 km of forest between the collapse site and the towns were cleared, paving the way for a largely unobstructed debris flow. Deforestation also facilitated erosion along the flanks to provide about 78% of the material contained in the lahar when it destroyed the towns, killing more than 2,500 people.     

Variability of precipitation intensity: sensitivity to treatment of moist convection in an RCM and a GCM

The present study investigates the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation rates to the closure employed in the penetrative mass flux cumulus parameterization of Zhang and McFarlane in the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) and in the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis third generation global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM3). The effects of an alternative prognostic closure for mass flux cumulus parameterization in place of the original diagnostic closure are investigated. A set of experiments is performed in which changes in the frequency distribution of precipitation rates and cloud base mass-flux are examined as a function of the parameters that define each closure scheme. The relationship between the frequency distribution of precipitation and cloud base mass flux is examined and a self-consistent relation is found when the depth of convection is taken into account. Experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor relatively strong cloud base mass-flux and deep penetrative convection with relatively more intense convective precipitation. The mean of the frequency distribution of convective precipitation is larger and the heavier events become more intense. Also, experiments performed with the prognostic closure favor less frequent convective activity. However these changes in the distribution of convective component of precipitation are generally offset by opposite changes in the distribution of the resolved large-scale component of precipitation, resulting in relatively smaller changes in total precipitation. The altered partition of precipitation between convective and large-scale components is found to alter the energy balance and the thermodynamic equilibrium structure of the troposphere. The robustness found in the CRCM results regarding the sensitivity of the frequency distribution of precipitation to changes in the closure of the deep convection parameterization is investigated by performing a similar analysis of AGCM3 simulations. A remarkable similarity of AGCM3 and CRCM results is found suggesting that the closure sensitivity identified in this study is robust.     

Precipitation induced stream flow: An event based chemical and isotopic study of a small stream in the Great Plains region of the USA

A small stream in the Great Plains of USA was sampled to understand the streamflow components following intense precipitation and the influence of water storage structures in the drainage basin. Precipitation, stream, ponds, ground-water and soil moisture were sampled for determination of isotopic (D, ¹⁸O) and chemical (Cl, SO₄) composition before and after two intense rain events. Following the first storm event, flow at the downstream locations was generated primarily through shallow subsurface flow and runoff whereas in the headwaters region – where a pond is located in the stream channel – shallow ground-water and pond outflow contributed to the flow. The distinct isotopic signatures of precipitation and the evaporated pond water allowed separation of the event water from the other sources that contributed to the flow. Similarly, variations in the Cl and SO₄ concentrations helped identify the relative contributions of ground-water and soil moisture to the streamflow. The relationship between deuterium excess and Cl or SO₄ content reveals that the early contributions from a rain event to streamflow depend upon the antecedent climatic conditions and the position along the stream channel within the watershed. The design of this study, in which data from several locations within a watershed were collected, shows that in small streams changes in relative contributions from ground water and soil moisture complicate hydrograph separation, with surface-water bodies providing additional complexity. It also demonstrates the usefulness of combined chemical and isotopic methods in hydrologic investigations, especially the utility of the deuterium excess parameter in quantifying the relative contributions of various source components to the stream flow.     

Identifying impact events within the lunar cataclysm from Ar–Ar ages and compositions of Apollo 16 impact melt rocks

Lunar impact melt breccias provide a unique record of the timing and frequency of collisional events during the early history of the inner Solar System prior to the development of a significant rock record on Earth. The predominance of ages clustering between 3.8 and 4.0 Ga was a major, unexpected discovery obtained from geochronological studies of lunar impact melts, and is the basis of the concept that a cataclysmic bombardment of large planetesimals struck the Earth and Moon, and possibly the entire inner Solar System, about 3.85 ± 0.10 billion years ago. As a test of the cataclysm hypothesis, we measured high-resolution (20–50 steps) ⁴⁰Ar–³⁹Ar age spectra on 25 samples of Apollo 16 impact melt breccias using a continuous laser heating system on sub-milligram fragments. Twenty-one of these 25 breccias produced multi-step plateaus that we interpret as crystallization ages, with 20 of these ages falling in the range 3.75–3.96 Ga. We propose that at least four different melt-producing impact events can be distinguished based on the ages, bulk compositions, and petrographic characteristics of Apollo 16 melt breccias. The recognition of multiple impact events within the Apollo 16 melt breccia suite shows that numerous impact events occurred on the lunar surface within a relatively narrow time interval, providing additional evidence of a heavy bombardment of the Moon during the early Archean.     

Catastrophic precipitation‐triggered lahar at Casita volcano,Nicaragua: occurrence,bulking and transformation

A catastrophic lahar began on 30 October 1998, as hurricane precipitation triggered a small ?ank collapse of Casita volcano, a complex and probably dormant stratovolcano. The initial rockslide‐debris avalanche evolved on the ?ank to yield a watery debris ?ood with a sediment concentration less than 60 per cent by volume at the base of the volcano. Within 2·5 km, however, the watery ?ow entrained (bulked) enough sediment to transform entirely to a debris ?ow. The debris ?ow, 6 km downstream and 1·2 km wide and 3 to 6 m deep, killed 2500 people, nearly the entire populations of the communities of El Porvenir and Rolando Rodriguez. These ‘new towns’ were developed in a prehistoric lahar pathway: at least three ?ows of similar size since 8330 ¹⁴C years bp are documented by stratigraphy in the same 30‐degree sector. Travel time between perception of the ?ow and destruction of the towns was only 2·5–3·0 minutes. The evolution of the ?ow wave occurred with hydraulic continuity and without pause or any extraordinary addition of water. The precipitation trigger of the Casita lahar emphasizes the need, in volcano hazard assessments, for including the potential for non‐eruption‐related collapse lahars with the more predictable potential of their syneruption analogues. The ?ow behaviour emphasizes that volcano collapses can yield not only volcanic debris avalanches with restricted runouts, but also mobile lahars that enlarge by bulking as they ?ow. Volumes and hence inundation areas of collapse‐runout lahars can increase greatly beyond their sources: the volume of the Casita lahar bulked to at least 2·6 times the contributing volume of the ?ank collapse and 4·2 times that of the debris ?ood. At least 78 per cent of the debris ?ow matrix (sediment < ?1·0Φ; 2 mm) was entrained during ?ow. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct observation of adakite melts generated in the lower continental crust, Fiordland, New Zealand

Adakites have a distinct chemistry that links them to melting of a mafic source at high pressure. They have been attributed to melting of subducted oceanic crust or melting of the mafic crustal roots of thick continental arcs, and are an important contrast to mantle wedge melting as a means of generating continental crust. We report the first direct evidence for the generation of adakitic melts in mafic lower continental crust, in an exhumed Cretaceous arc in the South Island of New Zealand. The lower crustal Pembroke Granulite has the bulk chemistry and partial melting textures involving peritectic garnet appropriate for a source region for an adakitic melt. The melt migrated from the area through a fracture network now filled with trondhjemitic veins. Emplacement of the melt was in the upper crust of the Cretaceous section, illustrated by the presence of coeval adakites in the upper crustal Nelson-Westland region.     

Interplanetary sector structure, 1962–1966

Some properties of the interplanetary magnetic field observed by IMP-3 in the latter half of 1965 are discussed with relation to previous satellite observations of the interplanetary field. The sector property remains a prominent feature of the observations, with the average field direction at the Archimedes spiral angle. The sector pattern has a 27-day recurrence period from 1962 to 1964, and during the year 1964 the pattern appears to be quasi-stable. In 1965 the recurrence period is about 28 days, and the evolution of the pattern is more rapid, with new sectors appearing and expanding.     

Michigan basin regional ground water flow discharge to three Great Lakes

Ground water discharge to the Great Lakes around the Lower Peninsula of Michigan is primarily from recharge in riparian basins and proximal upland areas that are especially important to the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline. A steady-state finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground water flow in four regional aquifers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula: the Glaciofluvial, Saginaw, Parma-Bayport, and Marshall aquifers interlayered with the Till/"red beds," Saginaw, and Michigan confining units, respectively. The model domain was laterally bound by a continuous specified-head boundary, formed from lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie, with the St. Clair and Detroit River connecting channels. The model was developed to quantify regional ground water flow in the aquifer systems using independently determined recharge estimates. According to the flow model, local stream stages and discharges account for 95% of the overall model water budget; only 50% enters the lakes directly from the ground water system. Direct ground water discharge to the Great Lakes' shorelines was calculated at 36 m3/sec, accounting for 5% of the overall model water budget. Lowland areas contribute far less ground water discharge to the Great Lakes than upland areas. The model indicates that Saginaw Bay receives only approximately 1.13 m3/sec ground water; the southern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives only approximately 2.83 m3/sec. In contrast, the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives more than 17 m3/sec from upland areas.     

GML for Representing Data from Spatio-Historical Databases: A Case Study

Many applications, in areas such as land use, traffic management and location aware services, involve the storage, analysis and sharing of spatio‐temporal data. The need to represent such data in a way that eases sharing across applications, has led to the development of the Geography Markup Language (GML), which provides a rich collection of constructs for representing spatial and associated aspatial data as XML documents. However, although there are a growing number of applications and tools that make use of GML, there are surprisingly few experience reports on the representation of data from existing applications or models using GML constructs. This paper provides one such report, describing the use of GML as an exchange format for the Tripod spatio‐historical database. This in turn involves identifying mappings between Tripod and GML constructs, and the development of a generic architecture for carrying out such mappings. The experience demonstrates that even though GML provides rich modelling facilities, the development of mappings from pre‐existing models can be challenging, as related constructs often provide semantically distinct capabilities.     

无机水化学离子在实验流域降雨径流过程中的响应及其示踪意义

为研究无机水化学离子在降雨径流示踪中的可能性,在实验流域实测降雨、地面径流、壤中流、地下水径流过程和流域内17个测孔的地下水过程中,施测了Na+,K+,Ca2+,Mg2+,Cl-,SO₄2-,HCO₃-+CO₃2-,NO₃-,F-,NH₄-,PO₄2-,SiO₂和pH,EC,18O的同步过程,还施测了少数土壤水水样。结果是:①在Ca2+与Cl-/SO₄2-和EC与Na+/(Na++Ca2+)的关系中以及除NO₃-,NH₄-,PO₄2-外的所有离子,都可识别出上述各种径流组分;②径流离子过程均与降雨离子过程相仿,随径流组分从地面到地下而渐趋坦化;③除个例外,离子浓度过程均以降雨为最小并从地面径流到地下水径流渐次增大;④降雨和地下水离子过程表现为径流离子过程的两端元;⑤在降雨和各径流组分中,18O过程与大部分离子过程有一定的同步性。从以上结果认为,降雨并不是流域径流离子输出的主要来源,然而却是形成它的主要控制因素。此外,有关试验结果还对应用Cl-进行地下水补给的估算方法提出了问题。