Probability Density Functions as Botanical-Climatological Transfer Functions for Climate Reconstruction

We present a new procedure, the pdf method (pdf=probability density function), for reconstructing Quaternary climate utilizing botanical data. The procedure includes the advantages of the indicator species method by considering the fossil and modern presence and absence of taxa rather than their frequencies, thus avoiding the need for modern analog plant communities. Overcoming the problematic use of absolute limits to describe climate response ranges is the main progress of the pdf method in comparison to the indicator species method. This advantage results from estimating probability density functions (pdfs) for monthly mean January and July temperature conditional on the present day occurrence of single taxa. Gaussian distributions sufficiently approximate pdfs of many, although not all, studied taxa. On the assumption of statistical independence, the procedure calculates a joint pdf as the product of the pdfs of the individual taxa. This algorithm weights each taxon according to the extent of its climate response range expressed by its covariance structure. We interpret the maximum of the resulting pdf as the most likely climate and its confidence interval as the uncertainty range. To avoid an artificial reduction of uncertainty arising from the use of numerous similar pdfs, a preselection method is proposed based on the Mahalanobis distance between pdfs. The pdf method was applied to the Carpinus phase of a profile from Gröbern, Germany, that spans the last interglaciation (Eemian). The reconstructed most probable January and July temperatures of about 0.0°C and 18.4°C barely differ from the modern values of −0.5°C and 18.3°C.     

Role of Subsurface Brines in Salt Balance: The Case Study of the Caspian Sea and Kara Bogaz Bay

The water level of the Caspian Sea fluctuated significantly during recent history, without consensus for the cause. The varied chemistry of the Caspian, Kara Bogaz and sediment a interstitial waters provides a further insight. Element concentrations and ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the interstitial waters were compared to those of Caspian and Kara Bogaz open waters, and of acid-leached extractable components. The ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of the interstitial waters are explained by addition of subterranean waters similar to nearby spring waters. These subterranean waters yield chemical characteristics such as a Cl/SO₄, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr, Ca/Sr and K/Rb ratios of respectively 80, 0.7086, 250 and 1,800. However, their addition does not explain the large difference in the K/Rb ratio of the Caspian and Kara Bogaz waters, respectively at 7,630 and 17,550, which implies also a leaching of salt deposits by the upward migrating subterranean waters. The sediments of the southern Caspian basin, with low Na, Cl and SO₄ in their interstitial waters, deposited apparently in an anoxic environment. The related chemical changes in the waters are also indicative of a recent change in the hydrologic regime, possibly induced by a changing morphology of the drainage basin.     

A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

Spatially controlled Fe and Si isotope variations: an alternative view on the formation of the Torres del Paine pluton

We present new Fe and Si isotope ratio data for the Torres del Paine igneous complex in southern Chile. The multi-composition pluton consists of an approximately 1 km vertical exposure of homogenous granite overlying a contemporaneous 250-m-thick mafic gabbro suite. This first-of-its-kind spatially dependent Fe and Si isotope investigation of a convergent margin-related pluton aims to understand the nature of granite and silicic igneous rock formation. Results collected by MC-ICP-MS show a trend of increasing δ⁵⁶Fe and δ³⁰Si with increasing silica content as well as a systematic increase in δ⁵⁶Fe away from the mafic base of the pluton. The marginal Torres del Paine granites have heavier Fe isotope signatures (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.25 ± 0.02 2se) compared to granites found in the interior pluton (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.17 ± 0.02 2se). Cerro Toro country rock values are isotopically light in both Fe and Si isotopic systems (δ⁵⁶Fe = +0.05 ± 0.02 ‰; δ³⁰Si = ?0.38 ± 0.07 ‰). The variations in the Fe and Si isotopic data cannot be accounted for by local assimilation of the wall rocks, in situ fractional crystallization, late-stage fluid exsolution or some combination of these processes. Instead, we conclude that thermal diffusion or source magma variation is the most likely process producing Fe isotope ratio variations in the Torres del Paine pluton.     

Late Holocene Asian summer monsoon dynamics from small but complex networks of paleoclimate data

Internal variability of the Asian monsoon system and the relationship amongst its sub-systems, the Indian and East Asian Summer Monsoon, are not sufficiently understood to predict its responses to a future warming climate. Past environmental variability is recorded in Palaeoclimate proxy data. In the Asian monsoon domain many records are available, e.g. from stalagmites, tree-rings or sediment cores. They have to be interpreted in the context of each other, but visual comparison is insufficient. Heterogeneous growth rates lead to uneven temporal sampling. Therefore, computing correlation values is difficult because standard methods require co-eval observation times, and sampling-dependent bias effects may occur. Climate networks are tools to extract system dynamics from observed time series, and to investigate Earth system dynamics in a spatio-temporal context. We establish paleoclimate networks to compare paleoclimate records within a spatially extended domain. Our approach is based on adapted linear and nonlinear association measures that are more efficient than interpolation-based measures in the presence of inter-sampling time variability. Based on this new method we investigate Asian Summer Monsoon dynamics for the late Holocene, focusing on the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and the recent period of warming in East Asia. We find a strong Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) influence on the East Asian Summer Monsoon during the MWP. During the cold LIA, the ISM circulation was weaker and did not extend as far east. The most recent period of warming yields network results that could indicate a currently ongoing transition phase towards a stronger ISM penetration into China. We find that we could not have come to these conclusions using visual comparison of the data and conclude that paleoclimate networks have great potential to study the variability of climate subsystems in space and time.     

Prévision rapide de l''extension d''une pollution dans quelques cas d''écoulement et de mode d''injection

The relationship between maximum concentration and longitudinal distance, independent of time, can determine the size of the area to be contaminated, under well-defined conditions of injection and flow in a saturated medium. The envelope curve for maximal concentrations is easily obtained as a function of the axial distance in non-dimensional variables in the cases of one- and two-dimensional uniform flow, as well as in those of radially symmetric converging or diverging flow.

Graphs providing relations between dimensionless variables (as described in the text) are given for the following cases:

1. (1) uniform flow with instantaneous discharge of a pollutant; measurement downstream of the injection point, no transverse dispersion;

2. (2) uniform flow with continuous injection of a pollutant; measurement downstream of the injection point, influence of transverse dispersion included;

3. (3) convergent radial flow towards a well; pollution caused by an instantaneous pointsource at some distance; and

4. (4) divergent radial flow from an injection point; pollution caused by instantaneous injection of a pollutant.

Résumé

L'expression de la concentration maximale en fonction de la distance et indépendamment du temps permet de déterminer l'extension d'une zone susceptible d'être contaminée lors de conditions bien définies d'injection d'un produit dangereux et d'écoulement en milieu saturé. La courbe enveloppe des maxima de concentration en fonction de la distance axiale est facilement exprimable sous forme adimensionnelle (abaques) dans le cas d'écoulements uniformes mono- et bi-dimensionnels (réponse dans l'axe), comme dans ceux d'écoulements purement cylindriques convergent ou divergent.     

Authigenic sericite record of a fossil geothermal system: the Offenburg trough,central Black Forest,Germany

A fossil geothermal area is hosted by the Carboniferous, Permian and Bunter sandstones of the Offenburg intramontane trough in the central Black Forest. The hydrothermal alteration is identified on the basis of newly formed sericites, which appear as pseudomorphs after feldspar and filling of pore spaces. According to K–Ar dating of sericite, serititization occurred about 145 Ma ago (Jurassic). On the basis of ¹⁸O analyses of sericite, sericite composition and vitrinite reflectance, the hydrothermal fluids had temperatures of 150–210 °C. Because their electrolyte content was low, these fluids are assumed to have derived from meteoric water. A second pulse of electrolyte-rich hydrothermal fluids resulted in quartz overgrowths. Fluid mobilization seems to be linked to the disintegration of Pangaea and to reactivated fault systems extending from the crystalline basement into the intramontane sediments.     

Effects of carbon dioxide on deep-sea harpacticoids revisited

As part of the evaluation of the environmental impact of sequestering carbon dioxide in the deep ocean, we exposed the sediment-dwelling fauna at a station in Monterey Submarine Canyon (36.378°N, 122.676°W, 3262 m) to carbon dioxide-rich seawater and found that most of the harpacticoid copepods were killed. In an expanded, follow-on experiment on the continental rise nearby (36.709°N, 123.523°W, 3607 m), not only did harpacticoids survive exposure to carbon dioxide-rich seawater, but we found no evidence from seven additional metrics that the harpacticoids had been affected. We infer that during the second experiment the harpacticoids were not exposed to a stressful dose. During the second experiment, carbon dioxide-rich seawater appears to have been produced more slowly than in the first, probably because of differences in the near-bottom flow regimes. We conclude that local physical circumstances can substantially influence the results of experiments of this type and will complicate the evaluation of the environmental consequences of deep-ocean carbon dioxide sequestration.