To what extent have changes in channel capacity contributed to flood hazard trends in England and Wales?

The frequency of floods has been projected to increase across Europe in the coming decades due to extreme weather events. However, our understanding of how flood frequency is affected by geomorphic changes in river channel capacity remains limited. This paper seeks to quantify the influence of trends in channel capacity on flood hazards. Measuring and predicting the effect of geomorphic changes on freshwater flooding is essential to mitigate the potential effects of major floods through informed planning and response. Hydrometric records from 41 stream gauging stations were used to measure trends in the flood stage (i.e. water surface elevation) frequency above the 1% annual exceedance threshold. The hydrologic and geomorphic components of flood hazard were quantified separately to determine their contribution to the total trend in flood stage frequency. Trends in cross‐sectional flow area and mean flow velocity were also investigated at the same flood stage threshold. Results showed that a 10% decrease (or increase) in the channel capacity would result in an increase (or decrease) in the flood frequency of approximately 1.5 days per year on average across these 41 sites. Widespread increases in the flood hazard frequency were amplified through both hydrologic and geomorphic effects. These findings suggest that overlooking the potential influence of changing channel capacity on flooding may be hazardous. Better understanding and quantifying the influence of geomorphic trends on flood hazard will provide key insight for managers and engineers into the driving mechanisms of fluvial flooding over relatively short timescales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of a polybrominated diphenyl ether congener (BDE-47) on growth and antioxidative enzymes of two mangrove plant species, Kandelia obovata and Avicennia marina, in South China

The effects of BDE-47 on the growth and antioxidative responses of the seedlings of Kandelia obovata (Ko) and Avicennia marina (Am) were compared in an 8-week hydroponic culture spiked with different levels of BDE-47, 0.1, 1, 5 and 10 mg l⁻¹. The two highest BDE-47 levels significantly suppressed the growth and increased the activities of three antioxidative enzymes, superoxide dismutase (SOD), peroxidase (POD) and catalase (CAT), of Ko in week 1. However, SOD and POD activities at high levels of BDE-47 became lower than the control in week 8. On the contrary, growth of Am was not affected at all contamination levels, and the activities of three enzymes were enhanced by BDE-47 in weeks 1 and 4, but such stimulatory effect became insignificant in week 8. Avicennia was more tolerant to BDE-47 toxicity than Kandelia, as its antioxidative enzymes could better counter-balance the oxidative stress caused by BDE-47.     

Snow avalanche regime and climatic conditions in the Chic-Choc Range, eastern Canada

Because snow avalanches occur at altitudes close to the 0°C isotherm in mountain environments, they should respond quickly to climatic variations. This study provides tree-ring-based high-magnitude avalanche chronologies for 12 subalpine avalanche paths in the Chic-Choc Range of Québec (eastern Canada). For the period covered by the chronologies, i.e., between 1895 and 1999, high-magnitude avalanches occurred with an average return interval of 5.3 years, which represents an average annual probability of 21% for all paths. A regional avalanche activity index (RAAI) was developed to help differentiating widespread regional avalanche activity from avalanche events resulting from local factors. Nineteen years of high-magnitude avalanche occurrence were identified (1898, 1936, 1939, 1941, 1965, 1969, 1970, 1971, 1977, 1981, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1994 and 1995). Of these, 15 occurred after 1950 and 10 after 1980. Propitious climatic conditions that account for widespread avalanche activity in the study region were identified as follows: (1) above-average total snowfall, (2) high-frequency of snowstorms, (3) major rain events and facet–crust development, (4) sequences of freezing rain and strong winds, and (5) early-season weak layers of faceted crystals and depth hoar. The number of days with air temperature above 0°C has strong implications on the internal structure and stratigraphy of the snowpack, and consequently on avalanche release. Land managers should thus consider more closely the impact of climatic conditions and warming on avalanche activity.     

Automated cleaning and uncertainty attribution of archival bathymetry based on a priori knowledge

Hydrographic offices hold large valuable historic bathymetric data sets, many of which were collected using older generation survey systems that contain little or no metadata and/or uncertainty estimates. These bathymetric data sets generally contain large outlier (errant) data points to clean, yet standard practice does not include rigorous automated procedures for systematic cleaning of these historical data sets and their subsequent conversion into reusable data formats. In this paper, we propose an automated method for this task. We utilize statistically diverse threshold tests, including a robust least trimmed squared method, to clean the data. We use LOESS weighted regression residuals together with a Student-t distribution to attribute uncertainty for each retained sounding; the resulting uncertainty values compare favorably with native estimates of uncertainty from co-located data sets which we use to estimate a point-wise goodness-of-fit measure. Storing a cleansed validated data set augmented with uncertainty in a re-usable format provides the details of this analysis for subsequent users. Our test results indicate that the method significantly improves the quality of the data set while concurrently providing confidence interval estimates and point-wise goodness-of-fit estimates as referenced to current hydrographic practices.     

Boreal peatland margins as repository sites of long-term natural disturbances of balsam fir/spruce forests

A multidisciplinary, high-resolution paleoecological study (Lepidoptera and plant remains, macroscopic charcoal, pollen) was conducted on a 4000-yr peat monolith extracted from the margin of an ombrotrophic peatland on Anticosti Island (Gulf of St. Lawrence, eastern Canada) to reconstruct the long-term natural disturbances (insect outbreaks, forest fires) of a balsam fir/spruce forest. We hypothesized that an activity of insect defoliators (spruce budworm, hemlock looper) was the main disturbance factor of conifer forests during the Late Holocene. The earliest remains of spruce budworm and hemlock looper were found ca. 3220 and 2350 cal yr BP, respectively. Peaks of insect head capsules occurred from ca. 1640 to ca. 625 cal yr BP. Low balsam fir pollen concentrations during this period suggest a lengthy episode ( 1000 yr) of high insect activity, resulting in extensive fir dieback and mortality. The long-term dynamics of the pristine balsam fir/spruce forests were mainly governed by the activity of insect defoliators. The limited extent and possibly the low occurrence of forest fires in the maritime environment of Anticosti Island allowed the development of mature coniferous stands propitious for insect infestations. Insect head capsules appeared to be a useful and effective tool for establishing insect presence and activity during the Holocene.     

The effect of ground ice on the Martian seasonal CO2 cycle

The mostly carbon dioxide (CO₂) atmosphere of Mars condenses and sublimes in the polar regions, giving rise to the familiar waxing and waning of its polar caps. The signature of this seasonal CO₂ cycle has been detected in surface pressure measurements from the Viking and Pathfinder landers. The amount of CO₂ that condenses during fall and winter is controlled by the net polar energy loss, which is dominated by emitted infrared radiation from the cap itself. However, models of the CO₂ cycle match the surface pressure data only if the emitted radiation is artificially suppressed suggesting that they are missing a heat source. Here we show that the missing heat source is the conducted energy coming from soil that contains water ice very close to the surface. The presence of ice significantly increases the thermal conductivity of the ground such that more of the solar energy absorbed at the surface during summer is conducted downward into the ground where it is stored and released back to the surface during fall and winter thereby retarding the CO₂ condensation rate. The reduction in the condensation rate is very sensitive to the depth of the soil/ice interface, which our models suggest is about 8 cm in the Northern Hemisphere and 11 cm in the Southern Hemisphere. This is consistent with the detection of significant amounts of polar ground ice by the Mars Odyssey Gamma Ray Spectrometer and provides an independent means for assessing how close to the surface the ice must be. Our results also provide an accurate determination of the global annual mean size of the atmosphere and cap CO₂ reservoirs, which are, respectively, 6.1 and 0.9 hPa. They also indicate that general circulation models will need to account for the effect of ground ice in their simulations of the seasonal CO₂ cycle.     

Neural Network Prediction of Monthly Precipitation: Application to Summer Flood Occurrence in Two Regions of Central Europe

Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were used to forecast precipitation. Three-layer back propagation ANNs were trained with actual monthly precipitation data from six Czech and four Hungarian meteorological stations for the period 1961-1998. The predicted amounts are the next month's precipitation. Both training and testing ANN results provided a good fit with the actual data and displayed high feasibility in predicting extreme precipitation.     

Fragmentation processes and xenolith transport in a Proterozoic minette dyke,Grenville Province,Québec

 The Mesoproterozoic Rivard minette dyke provides a case example of dyke-parallel fracturing induced by propagation of low-viscosity melts at deep crustal levels. The dyke constitutes a xenolith-choked intrusion breccia and provides samples of an extensive section of the lithosphere underlying the southwestern Grenville Province of Québec at 1.08 Ga. The xenoliths occupy approximately 50% of the volume of the breccia. They are extremely diverse and include pyroxenites and mafic granulites from the upper mantle and lower crust, and Grenvillian gabbroids, gneisses and quartzites. Wall-rock fragments are detached to various extents along dyke-parallel fractures and apophyses. The host lamprophyre magma has a calculated viscosity of ca. 40 Pa·s. Rapid ascent of magma and turbulence are suggested by the presence of large dense fragments and the brittle-to-ductile deformation at the margins of some xenoliths. A minimum ascent velocity of ca. 50 cm·s^–1 is estimated from the settling velocity of a 40 cm long pyroxenite xenolith. The progressive addition of xenoliths increased the effective viscosity of the liquid-solid mixture to 10³ Pa·s during emplacement. This favoured Bingham behaviour and laminar flow of the magma, and xenolith suspension. Field evidence suggests that xenoliths were formed through (1) early fracturing of wall rock by inelastic deformation during dyke propagation, and (2) continuous delamination of wall rock by intrusion of magma along the dyke-parallel fractures. This led to removal of chilled margins, and to fluid infiltration, partial melting and microbrecciation in the wall rock. Pre-existing discontinuities played a minor role in the fracturing process. Xenoliths may thus be abundant in alkaline magmas not only because these magmas ascend rapidly and can transport xenoliths, but possibly also, because their low viscosities promote intense fracturing of wall rock. Received: 10 June 1995 / Accepted: 10 February 1996     

Coronal heating

Louise Harra presents a summary of a meeting at which a wealth of new sources of data – Yohkoh, SOHO, TRACE, XMM-Newton and Chandra – is bringing new insights to studies of solar and stellar coronal heating.     

Removal of tributyltin (TBT) by live and dead microalgal cells

The removal of tributyltin (TBT) from artificial wastewater by dead and live cells of four microalgal species, Chlorella miniata, C. sorokiniana, Scenedesmus dimorphus and S. platydiscus was investigated. Dead cells were generally more efficient in removing TBT during three days exposure. More than 90% and 85% TBT were removed by dead cells of Scenedesmus and Chlorella, respectively. Although the removal percentages of live microalgae were smaller, TBT was continuously absorbed and degraded, and TBT removal percentages similar to respective dead cells were achieved at the end of 14 days treatment. Degradation products, DBT and MBT, were recorded mainly inside the cells, and intracellular MBT concentrations were significantly higher than DBT. In terms of TBT removal, Scenedesmus cells were more effective than Chlorella, probably due to larger cell sizes and biomass. However, TBT specific uptake and degradation by Chlorella was higher than in Scenedesmus. The highest specific TBT uptake values, as well as the highest degradation, were recorded in C. miniata, a Hong Kong isolate.