Knowledge gaps in our perceptual model of Great Britain's hydrology

There is a no lack of significant open questions in the field of hydrology. How will hydrological connectivity between freshwater bodies be altered by future human alterations to the hydrological cycle? Where does water go when it rains? Or what is the future space–time variability of flood and drought events? However, the answers to these questions will vary with location due to the specific and often poorly understood local boundary conditions and system properties that control the functional behaviour of a catchment or any other hydrologic control volume. We suggest that an open, shared and evolving perceptual model of a region's hydrology is critical to tailor our science questions, as it would be for any other study domain from the plot to the continental scale. In this opinion piece, we begin to discuss the elements of and point out some knowledge gaps in the perceptual model of the terrestrial water cycle of Great Britain. We discuss six major knowledge gaps and propose four key ways to reduce them. While the specific knowledge gaps in our perceptual model do not necessarily transfer to other places, we believe that the development of such perceptual models should be at the core of the debate for all hydrologic communities, and we encourage others to have a similar debate for their hydrologic domain.     

Scientists' warning on extreme wildfire risks to water supply

2020 is the year of wildfire records. California experienced its three largest fires early in its fire season. The Pantanal, the largest wetland on the planet, burned over 20% of its surface. More than 18 million hectares of forest and bushland burned during the 2019–2020 fire season in Australia, killing 33 people, destroying nearly 2500 homes, and endangering many endemic species. The direct cost of damages is being counted in dozens of billion dollars, but the indirect costs on water-related ecosystem services and benefits could be equally expensive, with impacts lasting for decades. In Australia, the extreme precipitation (“200 mm day −1 in several location”) that interrupted the catastrophic wildfire season triggered a series of watershed effects from headwaters to areas downstream. The increased runoff and erosion from burned areas disrupted water supplies in several locations. These post-fire watershed hazards via source water contamination, flash floods, and mudslides can represent substantial, systemic long-term risks to drinking water production, aquatic life, and socio-economic activity. Scenarios similar to the recent event in Australia are now predicted to unfold in the Western USA. This is a new reality that societies will have to live with as uncharted fire activity, water crises, and widespread human footprint collide all-around of the world. Therefore, we advocate for a more proactive approach to wildfire-watershed risk governance in an effort to advance and protect water security. We also argue that there is no easy solution to reducing this risk and that investments in both green (i.e., natural) and grey (i.e., built) infrastructure will be necessary. Further, we propose strategies to combine modern data analytics with existing tools for use by water and land managers worldwide to leverage several decades worth of data and knowledge on post-fire hydrology.     

3D representation of geochemical data, the corresponding alteration and associated REE mobility at the Ranger uranium deposit, Northern Territory, Australia

Interrogation and 3D visualisation of multiple multi-element data sets collected at the Ranger 1 No. 3 uranium mine, in the Northern Territory of Australia, show a distinct and large-scale chemical zonation around the ore body. A central zone of Mg alteration, dominated by extensive clinochlore alteration, overprints a biotite–muscovite–K-feldspar assemblage which shows increasing loss of Na, Ba and Ca moving towards the ore body. Manipulation of pre-existing geochemical data and integration of new data collected from targeted ‘niche’ samples make it possible to recognise chemical architecture within the system and identify potential fluid conduits. New trace element and rare earth element (REE) data show strong fractionation associated with the zoned alteration around the deposit and with fault planes that intersect and bound the deposit. Within the most altered portion of the system, isocon analysis indicates addition of elements including Mg, S, Cu, Au and Ni and removal of elements including Ca, K, Ba and Na within a zone of damage associated with ore precipitation. In the more distal parts of the system, processes of alteration and replacement associated with the mineralising system can be recognised. REE element data show enrichment in HREE centred about a characteristic peak in Dy in the high-grade ore zone while LREEs are enriched in the outermost portions of the system. The patterns recognised in 3D in zoning of geochemical groups and contoured S, K and Mg abundance and the observed REE patterns suggest a fluid flow regime in which fluids were predominately migrating upwards during ore deposition within the core of the ore system.     

Hydrogeology of northern Sierra de Chiapas,Mexico: a conceptual model based on a geochemical characterization of sulfide-rich karst brackish springs

Conspicuous sulfide-rich karst springs flow from Cretaceous carbonates in northern Sierra de Chiapas, Mexico. This is a geologically complex, tropical karst area. The physical, geologic, hydrologic and chemical attributes of these springs were determined and integrated into a conceptual hydrogeologic model. A meteoric source and a recharge elevation below 1,500 m are estimated from the spring-water isotopic signature regardless of their chemical composition. Brackish spring water flows at a maximum depth of 2,000 m, as inferred from similar chemical attributes to the produced water from a nearby oil well. Oil reservoirs may be found at depths below 2,000 m. Three subsurface environments or aquifers are identified based on the B, Li⁺, K⁺ and SiO₂ concentrations, spring water temperatures, and CO₂ pressures. There is mixing between these aquifers. The aquifer designated Local is shallow and contains potable water vulnerable to pollution. The aquifer named Northern receives some brackish produced water. The composition of the Southern aquifer is influenced by halite dissolution enhanced at fault detachment surfaces. Epigenic speleogenesis is associated with the Local springs. In contrast, hypogenic speleogenesis is associated with the brackish sulfidic springs from the Northern and the Southern environments.     

A framework to assess the vulnerability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to the impact of MPAs under climate change

This paper describes the development of a Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) that estimates the relative ability of California commercial sea urchin fishermen to cope with the change associated with proposed marine protected areas. A key goal in establishing marine protected areas is to maximize conservation benefits while minimizing the potential negative impacts to local fishing communities. However, current impact analyses largely assume a linear relationship between percent of fishing area or revenue lost with the magnitude of impact to fishermen. The LVI described in this paper aims to provide an additional dimension to impact analyses in which the adaptive capacity of individual fishermen is examined to estimate the differential abilities of fishermen to cope with the loss of fishing areas or revenue. This paper advances vulnerability assessments as it develops a novel framework for identifying and measuring drivers of vulnerability for understudied fishing populations whose livelihoods depend upon marine resources. This vulnerability assessment is intended to inform the design of marine protected areas by enabling researchers to incorporate the adaptive capacity of fishermen into socioeconomic impact analyses. The LVI was developed for the California commercial sea urchin fishery in the context of proposed marine protected area networks develop through the California Marine Life Protected Act planning process. As climate change advances there is an increasing need to identify vulnerable and resilient populations and ways to bolster adaptive capacity given the environmental and economic changes ahead.     

Socio-cultural dimensions of climate change: charting the terrain

We have reached a crucial turning point in debates around climate change. A well established scientific consensus regarding the physical causes, dynamics, and at least many likely implications of anthropogenic climate change has thus far failed to result in any substantial movement towards mitigation. For many, then, the most urgent questions regarding climate change are now socio-cultural ones, such as: how do people come to hold and act on certain beliefs regarding environmental conditions and processes; how do institutional forms and histories shape and constrain the views and options of various sorts of actors; and what are relationships among fossil fuels, climate change, and the historical geographies and future trajectories of capitalism? Far from being simpler than physical and life science questions, these social science questions introduce entirely new sorts of actors, dynamics, and methodological challenges into this already complex and dynamic domain. This special issue takes up these topics. In this essay, we chart some of the major contours of contemporary social science thinking regarding climate change and introduce the articles in the special issue. We begin by examining work, from political science and scholarship on the commons, that foregrounds questions of sovereignty, territoriality, and cooperation with respect to environmental governance. Then we examine work from neoclassical economics and radical political economy, which frame climate change in terms of externalities, or contradiction and crisis, respectively. Finally, we examine the rapidly proliferating work exploring how individuals think and feel about these issues, emphasizing concepts of risk, communication, and governmentality.     

Assessment of soil losses and siltation of the K’sob hydrological system (semiarid area—East Algeria)

Soil losses and siltation of the hydrological system (watershed–dam) of K’sob were obtained using direct and indirect methods. The Wadi K’sob watershed of 1,484 km², average slope of 0.14, and average elevation of 1,060 m is located in a semiarid climate. The average annual rainfall is 341 mm and the mean annual water discharge is 0.89 m³/s. Data from the Medjez gauging station located 6 km upstream of the dam, are the daily liquid flow and instantaneous concentrations of suspended sediments. Over a time period from 1973 to 2010, the relationship between water and sediment discharges is quantified by the equation: Q _s?=?5.6 Q ^1.31. Thus, in view of the availability data on a daily scale, the assessment of soil erodibility of the K’sob watershed was used to estimate specific soil losses of 203 t?km^?2?year^?1or 301,000 t eroded annually from the K’sob basin. The bathymetric measurements of the sediment volumes deposited in the K’sob dam, has quantified the annual siltation of 0.8 hm³, corresponding to an average erodibility of the K’sob watershed of 809 t?km^?2?year^?1. However, when adding the volume of sediment removed by the dredging operation and de-silting by the valves during heavy floods, the value of soil losses is 2,780 t?km^?2?year^?1. The indirect assessment of soil erodibility of the basin was obtained by applying two models: the quantitative geomorphological analysis (QGA) and PISA model (prediction of silting in the artificial reservoirs, in Italian: Previsioni dell’Interimento nei Serbatoi Artificiali) using physical and climatic factors in the watershed. The obtained results by QGA method underestimate specific soil losses of 524 t?km^?2?year^?1. The PISA model gives a value of 2,915 t?km^?2?year^?1, which is close to the value obtained by bathymetric measurements. This study concludes that PISA model is most suitable to estimate soil loss and siltation of the K’sob hydrological system.     

Eminescu impact structure: Insight into the transition from complex crater to peak-ring basin on Mercury

Peak-ring basins represent an impact-crater morphology that is transitional between complex craters with central peaks and large multi-ring basins. Therefore, they can provide insight into the scale dependence of the impact process. Here the transition with increasing crater diameter from complex craters to peak-ring basins on Mercury is assessed through a detailed analysis of Eminescu, a geologically recent and well-preserved peak-ring basin. Eminescu has a diameter (∼125 km) close to the minimum for such crater forms and is thus representative of the transition. Impact crater size-frequency distributions and faint rays indicate that Eminescu is Kuiperian in age, geologically younger than most other basins on Mercury. Geologic mapping of basin interior units indicates a distinction between smooth plains and peak-ring units. Our mapping and crater retention ages favor plains formation by impact melt rather than post-impact volcanism, but a volcanic origin for the plains cannot be excluded if the time interval between basin formation and volcanic emplacement was less than the uncertainty in relative ages. The high-albedo peak ring of Eminescu is composed of bright crater-floor deposits (BCFDs, a distinct crustal unit seen elsewhere on Mercury) exposed by the impact. We use our observations to assess predictions of peak-ring formation models. We interpret the characteristics of Eminescu as consistent with basin formation models in which a melt cavity forms during the impact formation of craters at the transition to peak ring morphologies. We suggest that the smooth plains were emplaced via impact melt expulsion from the central melt cavity during uplift of a peak ring composed of BCFD-type material. In this scenario the ringed cluster of peaks resulted from the early development of the melt cavity, which modified the central uplift zone.     

Diatom assemblage changes in lacustrine sediments from Isla de los Estados, southernmost South America, in response to shifts in the southwesterly wind belt during the last deglaciation

Isla de los Estados (54° 45′S, 63° 10′–64° 46′W) lies east of the main island of Tierra del Fuego and is the southeastern-most point in Argentina. Because of its geographic position near the latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies and the strong influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), the area is suitable for paleoecological and paleoclimate research. The island is not far north of the Subantarctic Front, which limits the northern boundary of the ACC. Paleoenvironmental study in this geographic location can shed light on past changes in atmospheric and marine circulation patterns. Diatom analysis of the lower part of a sediment sequence from Laguna Cascada (54° 45′ 51.3′′S, 64° 20′ 20.07′′W) enabled inference of changing lake conditions between 16 and 11.1 cal ka BP. Between 16 and 14.4 cal ka BP fragilarioid diatom species, often a pioneer group, dominated the record. Their presence shows seasonally open-water conditions from the onset of sedimentation. In zone II (14.4–12.8 cal ka BP), the dominance of planktonic/tychoplanktonic Aulacoseira spp. might represent longer ice-free periods and windier conditions, which would have kept this heavy species suspended in the water column. This period corresponds to the Antarctic Cold Reversal, when the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies were possibly centered on the latitudes of Tierra del Fuego, resulting in windy and wet conditions. Zone III (12.8–11.1 cal ka BP) is dominated by benthic diatom taxa that are mainly associated with peat and wetland vegetation. This suggests that climate conditions had become milder and less windy, favoring aquatic productivity and terrestrial vegetation development. This change in environmental conditions may have been a consequence of the southward movement of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies at the start of the Antarctic Holocene thermal optimum.     

Tsunami Wave Analysis and Possibility of Splay Fault Rupture During the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake

The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was observed by two satellites, close in space and time, that traversed the Indian Ocean 2?h after the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake, but which observed different tsunami lead wave morphologies. The earlier satellite, Jason-1, recorded a lead wave with two peaks of similar amplitude and wavelength, while the later satellite, TOPEX/Poseidon, recorded a lead wave with only one longer wavelength uplift. To resolve this disparity, we examine the travel paths of long wavelength waves over the seafloor bathymetry. Waves traveling from the margin will traverse significantly different paths to arrive at the two satellite transects. The result is that the satellites are sensitive to different parts of the margin; Jason-1 is highly sensitive to the margin in the area of the epicenter, while TOPEX is sensitive to a more northerly section. By developing solutions of the ocean gravity wave equations, accounting for dispersion, we show that the double peak of the Jason-1 satellite observations are consistent with coseismic rupture of a splay fault of limited along-strike extent, located north of Simeulue Island. The doubly peaked morphology can be reproduced with co-activation of the subduction zone interface and the splay fault, which creates a seafloor uplift pattern with two distinct areas of uplift. The Jason-1 satellite is sensitive to a splay fault in this portion of the margin, whereas the TOPEX satellite would not be significantly affected by this uplift pattern. By back-projecting satellite observation points to the margin, we constrain the location of the proposed splay fault and find that it correlates with a bathymetric high. The aftershock locations, uplift of corals on Simeulue Island and a fault scarp on Pulau Salaut Besar are also consistent with the activation of a splay fault in the area delimited by the back-projection. Our work also shows that it is critical to fully capture gravity wave dispersion in order to represent features of the lead wave profile that may not be as well characterized by the shallow water (long-wavelength) model. It is also necessary to account for dispersion so as to precisely assess wavefront travel times; this leads us to conclude that the rupture must have reached very near to the trench and propagated with an updip rupture velocity of order 2.0?km/s or more.