Investigation of El Niño and La Niña effects and the impact of Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), on precipitation in Nigeria from 1950 to 1992

Monthly precipitation data from meteorological stations in Nigeria are analysed from 1950 to 1992, in relation to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The analyses have shed some light on understanding the variability of rainfall anomalies observed in Nigeria for this period. The correlation values between rainfall anomaly indices (RAI) and different meteorological indices are not all significant. Thus, the analyses show some indication that rainfall in Nigeria is associated with El Niño-related circulation and rainfall anomalies. The low correlations between RAI and SST in the Pacific confirm low correlations between rainfall and southern oscillation indices (SOI). SST correlations in the tropical Atlantic suggest that warm surface water in this part of the Atlantic moves the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) southward and away from the SouthEast of Nigeria, indicating less rainfall, while, in SouthWest of Nigeria, the warm surface waters in this part of the Atlantic are likely to be responsible for a more northern position of the ITCZ, which produces more rainfall. The lower correlation in Northern Nigeria may be attributed to its continentality, away from the influence of the sea surface conditions in the Gulf of Guinea and the tropical Atlantic. The drought, or rainfall, cycles in Northern Nigeria are more closely connected to the land surface conditions in the nearby Sahel region.     

Assessment of regional seasonal rainfall predictability using the CPTEC/COLA atmospheric GCM

This is a study of the annual and interannual variability of regional rainfall produced by the Center for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies/Center for Ocean, Land and Atmospheric Studies (CPTEC/COLA) atmospheric global climate model. An evaluation is made of a 9-member ensemble run of the model forced by observed global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies for the 10-year period 1982–1991. The Brier skill score and, Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) are used to assess the predictability of rainfall and to validate rainfall simulations, in several regions world wide. In general, the annual cycle of precipitation is well simulated by the model for several continental and oceanic regions in the tropics and mid latitudes. Interannual variability of rainfall during the peak rainy season is realistically simulated in Northeast Brazil, Amazonia, central Chile, and southern Argentina–Uruguay, Eastern Africa, and tropical Pacific regions, where the model shows good skill. Some regions, such as northwest Peru–Ecuador, and southern Brazil exhibit a realistic simulation of rainfall anomalies associated with extreme El Niño warming conditions, while in years with neutral or La Niña conditions, the agreement between observed and simulated rainfall anomalies is not always present. In the monsoon regions of the world and in southern Africa, even though the model reproduces the annual cycle of rainfall, the skill of the model is low for the simulation of the interannual variability. This is indicative of mechanisms other than the external SST forcing, such as the effect of land–surface moisture and snow feedbacks or the representation of sub-grid scale processes, indicating the important role of factors other than external boundary forcing. The model captures the well-known signatures of rainfall anomalies of El Niño in 1982–83 and 1986–87, indicating its sensitivity to strong external forcing. In normal years, internal climate variability can affect the predictability of climate in some regions, especially in monsoon areas of the world.     

Meso-scale effects of tropical deforestation in Amazonia: preparatory LBA modelling studies

As part of the preparation for the Large-Scale Biosphere Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, a meso-scale modelling study was executed to highlight deficiencies in the current understanding of land surface atmosphere interaction at local to sub-continental scales in the dry season. Meso-scale models were run in 1-D and 3-D mode for the area of Rondonia State, Brazil. The important conclusions are that without calibration it is difficult to model the energy partitioning of pasture; modelling that of forest is easier due to the absence of a strong moisture deficit signal. The simulation of the boundary layer above forest is good, above deforested areas (pasture) poor. The models’ underestimate of the temperature of the boundary layer is likely to be caused by the neglect of the radiative effects of aerosols caused by biomass burning, but other factors such as lack of sufficient entrainment in the model at the mixed layer top may also contribute. The Andes generate patterns of subsidence and gravity waves, the effects of which are felt far into the Rondonian area The results show that the picture presented by GCM modelling studies may need to be balanced by an increased understanding of what happens at the meso-scale. The results are used to identify key measurements for the LBA atmospheric meso-scale campaign needed to improve the model simulations. Similar modelling studies are proposed for the wet season in Rondonia, when convection plays a major role.     

HAND contour: a new proxy predictor of inundation extent

Tools for accurately predicting environmental risks, such as the location and spatial extent of potential inundation, are not widely available. A dependence on calibration and a lack of available flood data have prevented the widespread application of existing hydrodynamic methods for predicting the extent of inundation. We use the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) terrain model to develop a simple static approach for mapping the potential extent of inundation that does not depend on flood observations and extends beyond methods for mapping low‐lying areas. While relying on the contour concept, the method utilizes drainage‐normalized topography and flowpaths to delineate the relative vertical distances (drop) to the nearest river. The HAND‐delineated relative drop is an effective distributed predictor of flood potential, which is directly related to the river stage height. We validated the new HAND contour approach using a flood event in Southern Brazil for which high‐resolution maps were available. The results indicated that the flood hazard‐mapping method accurately predicted the inundation extent of the channel carrying the flood wave and the channels influenced by flooding. For channels positioned outside of the flood‐wave area, the method overestimated the actual flood extent. As an original static assessment of floodwaters across the landscape, the HAND contour method could be used to map flood hazards in areas with poor information and could promote the development of new methods for predicting hydrological hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A methodology for defining homogeneous water bodies in estuaries – Application to the transitional systems of the EU Water Framework Directive

A methodology is developed and tested for division of estuarine and coastal systems into water bodies for monitoring and management purposes. This division is often implicit in the choice of sampling stations and in pollution abatement measures applied to different locations – it is now an explicit requirement of European Union Directive 2000/60/EC (Water Framework Directive) and recommended by United States Agencies such as EPA and NOAA. The approach considers both natural characteristics and the human dimension, by means of a stepwise methodology, which considers, on the one hand, morphology and salinity distribution, and, on the other, appropriate indicators of pressure and state. In the present application, nitrogen and phosphorus loading was used as the pressure component and chlorophyll a and dissolved oxygen as indicators of state. The criteria for system division were defined based on (1) an adimensional shape factor and salinity classes for the natural component; and (2) a normalised pressure index and (ASSETS) eutrophication symptom classes for the human dimension. Water quality databases and GIS were used to develop spatial distributions for the various components, and the results were aggregated into a final water body division, using tidal excursion as a “common sense” test. The methodology was applied to three well-studied systems in Portugal, a tubular estuary (Mondego), a wide lagunal estuary (Sado) and a coastal barrier island system (Ria Formosa). Although a final definition of water bodies will usually be a policy decision, this type of approach for the division of coastal systems into management units scientifically informs the decision-making process.     

Performance of intertidal topography video monitoring of a meso-tidal reflective beach in South Portugal

This study discusses site-specific system optimization efforts related to the capability of a coastal video station to monitor intertidal topography. The system consists of two video cameras connected to a PC, and is operating at the meso-tidal, reflective Faro Beach (Algarve coast, S. Portugal). Measurements from the period February 4, 2009 to May 30, 2010 are discussed in this study. Shoreline detection was based on the processing of variance images, considering pixel intensity thresholds for feature extraction, provided by a specially trained artificial neural network (ANN). The obtained shoreline data return rate was 83%, with an average horizontal cross-shore root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.06 m. Several empirical parameterizations and ANN models were tested to estimate the elevations of shoreline contours, using wave and tidal data. Using a manually validated shoreline set, the lowest RMSE (0.18 m) for the vertical elevation was obtained using an ANN while empirical parameterizations based on the tidal elevation and wave run-up height resulted in an RMSE of 0.26 m. These errors were reduced to 0.22 m after applying 3-D data filtering and interpolation of the topographic information generated for each tidal cycle. Average beach-face slope tan(β) RMSE were around 0.02. Tests for a 5-month period of fully automated operation applying the ANN model resulted in an optimal, average, vertical elevation RMSE of 0.22 m, obtained using a one tidal cycle time window and a time-varying beach-face slope. The findings indicate that the use of an ANN in such systems has considerable potential, especially for sites where long-term field data allow efficient training.     

Climate downscaling over South America for 1961–1970 using the Eta Model

This study shows the results from a regional climate simulation of the present-day climate, corresponding to the period 1961–1970 over South America, using the regional Eta Model nested within the HadAM3P model from the UK Hadley Centre. The simulation analysis is focused on assessing the capability of the nested regional model in representing spatial patterns of seasonal mean climate and the annual cycle of precipitation and temperature. The goals of this 10-year run for South America are to verify if the Eta Model can be used in climate-change scenarios and to verify if this model has the ability to generate added value for the South American continent. The Eta Model was chosen because there are few investigations using the Eta Model for long integrations over South America and because the vertical coordinate system used in this model is recommended for use over South America due to the presence of the Andes range. In the present 10-year simulation, the regional model reproduced many of the South American mesoscale climate features and together added new value to the driver model. Value was also added to the driver model by reducing seasonal biases in austral winter relative to austral summer. The regional model also exhibits better performance in the representation of low-level circulation, such as the topographically induced northwesterly flux.     

Drivers of island beach evolution: insights from an island-scale study at Boa Vista (Cabo Verde)

Beach erosion poses significant threat to small island economies which are generally highly dependent on coastal tourism. This work investigates the evolution of the low-lying sandy coast of Boa Vista through an integrated characterization of coastline and shoreline indicators (over the past four decades) based on aerial imagery. It was found that tandem use of the two indicators was important to obtain a reliable perspective of the Boa Vista low-lying coastal evolution across a wide range of coastal environments. Results indicate that between 1968 and 2010 the coast was relatively stable, although some spatial variability was recognized. The largest changes were observed at the tips of embayed beaches and a clear coastal progradation was found at the southern (downwind) coastal sectors. Coastal evolution has been dominated by sediment budget and the results put in evidence the sedimentary connections between the beaches across the island, either through bypass and overpass processes. Findings show that understanding coastal evolution at low-lying islands should be supported on island-scale observations, being the only scale capable to capture the sedimentary connections between beach systems, that often control coastal evolution. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from cattle raising in Brazil

The study estimated, for the first time, the greenhouse gas emissions associated with cattle raising in Brazil, focusing on the period from 2003 to 2008 and the three principal sources: 1) portion of deforestation resulting in pasture establishment and subsequent burning of felled vegetation; 2) pasture burning; and 3) bovine enteric fermentation. Deforestation for pasture establishment was only considered for the Amazon and Cerrado. Emissions from pasture burning and enteric fermentation were accounted for the entire country. The consolidated emissions estimate lies between approximately 813 Mt CO₂eq in 2008 (smallest value) and approximately 1,090 Mt CO₂eq in 2003 (greatest value). The total emissions associated with Amazon cattle ranching ranged from 499 to 775 Mt CO₂eq, that of the Cerrado from 229 to 231 Mt CO₂eq, and that of the rest of the country between 84 and 87 Mt CO₂eq. The full set of emissions originating from cattle raising is responsible for approximately half of all Brazilian emissions (estimated to be approximately 1,055 Mt CO₂eq in 2005), even without considering cattle related sources not explicitly estimated in this study, such as energy use for transport and refrigeration along the beef and derivatives supply chain. The potential for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions offered by the Brazilian cattle industry is very high and might constitute Brazil’s most important opportunity for emissions mitigation. The study offers a series of policy recommendations for mitigation that can be implemented by public and private administrators at a low cost relative to other greenhouse gas reduction options.