"01.19"区域暴雪天气过程的数值诊断分析

对2006年1月18日-19日山西中南部区域暴雪天气过程从垂直环流结构、形成机制、螺旋度数值诊断等方面进行了分析,得出：暴雪发生在高空极涡加强南压期间,北路强冷空气直灌山西,受700hPa西北涡东移影响所致。暴雪区上空,垂直螺旋度柱为上正下负,正螺旋度柱的两个中心分别位于300hPa和500hPa,在500hPa出现了强度高达14×10^-6m·s^-2的强中心,负螺旋度柱中心相对较弱。垂直螺旋度强度的变化对暴雪的出现有明显指示意义。涡散场的分布存在“高空辐散、低层辐合”的垂直配置,暴雪出现在500hPa涡度梯度最大的地方,暴雪出现12h后,正涡度中心强度迅速增强,对应暴雪出现一个增幅期。暴雪区上空,锋面坡度较大,湿层厚度达到600hPa左右,整个系统深厚稳定。低空、超低空急流的存在,不仅为暴雪提供了水汽来源和热量输送,而且使得重力惯性波不稳定发展,是强降雪的重要触发机制。     

2008年12月2—6日寒潮天气过程分析

利用常规天气观测资料、美国NCEP/NCAR 1°×1°网格点逐6h再分析资料,采用天气学原理和天气动力学诊断分析方法,对2008年12月2-6日寒潮天气过程进行分析和总结.结果表明:此次寒潮天气过程出现在欧洲脊强烈发展并缓慢东移、北半球中高纬环流形势由纬向型向经向型转换过程中.西脊前强偏北风带南移、横槽涡度西部大于东部、横槽前东南方的负变高和横槽后部的暖平流正变高等促使横槽转竖;南掉极涡与转竖低槽合并后,低槽明显向南加深,冷空气势力显著加强并开始向南爆发;自西脊西北部入侵小槽压迫高脊向东南方向移动并逐渐崩溃,脊前偏北气流逆转为西北气流,引导冷空气大举向南爆发,造成了此次寒潮天气过程.强盛的冷平流是造成气温骤降的主要原因.强风的形成除与冷平流侵入有关外,还与高空动量下传的增加密切相关.山东半岛降雨和强降雪的环流成因和物理量特征存在明显差异,降雨为冷暖空气交汇所致;强降雪则是冷平流、海陆分布差异和地形抬升共同影响的结果.T639、ECMWF和日本等3种数值模式均对这次亚欧中高纬大气环流的演变和调整均做出了较准确的预报,尤以ECMWF模式预报性能最好.     

地震短期、短临预测面临的"最后一分钟"

本文分析了地震预测面临的“最后一分钟”问题,阐述了前兆方法预报地震呼唤新思路的重要性及地震预测的可探索性。     

固体潮汐参数变化与地震关系研究

运用潮汐计算模型及固体潮汐数字化观测结果,计算了固体潮汐参数,并对计算结果进行了对比。结果表明：整点和加密采样（10min）两种采样方法除计算的中误差有一些差别外,对固体潮汐因子的影响不大。同时用辅助气压观测及首都圈体应变观测数据计算了体应变日异常频次,并与观测台站附近的小震活动进行了对比,讨论了远震及震源区地震活动与固体潮汐数字化观测结果间的关系。     

Late Quaternary loess deposition in the southern Chaiwopu Basin of the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland and its palaeoclimatic implications

The piedmont aeolian sediment in Central Asia is has been widely used for Quaternary palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here we present detailed sedimentological and rock magnetic investigations on 188 samples from the ~9.4‐m‐thick Urumqi River section (URS) in the southern Chaiwopu Basin of the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating constrains the time‐span of the URS loess sedimentation from c. 28 to c. 6.8 ka. This chronology implies that the onset of the URS loess sedimentation is approximately synchronous with the Shangwangfeng Glaciation (MIS 2) in the headwaters of the Urumqi River. Analyses of sediment grain size and rock magnetic parameters indicate that sediment grain‐size composition controls magnetic properties of the URS loess, i.e. the wind intensity model, distinct from the pedogenic model interpreting the variations in magnetic properties of the loess in the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). Overall, the variations in sediment grain size and magnetic properties throughout the URS indicate that the present study area was dominated by a climate of strengthened wind associated with gradually intensified aridity during the latest Pleistocene. In contrast, the intensity of aridity and coldness during the early Holocene gradually became relatively weakened.     

Discontinuous deformation analysis based on the multiplicative decomposition of the displacement

Updating the block configuration on the basis of additive decomposition and its linearized expression of the displacement increment leads to the low calculation accuracy of the original discontinuous deformation analysis (DDA) and false volume expansion. In this study, the displacement expressions of a small deformation, a large rotation, and the corresponding velocity and acceleration terms on the basis of the initial configuration are presented using multiplicative decomposition. With the use of the principle of virtual work, the stiffness matrix, mass matrix, and force vector of blocks are obtained. Compared with the original DDA, each of the block deformation parameters has obvious physical meaning as a parameter of mechanics, which can be obtained by adding the incremental deformation components of each time step directly without co-ordinate transformation. Moreover, the proposed modification automatically considers the block deformation produced by centrifugal and Coriolis forces. The analysis of some typical numerical examples have verified the accuracy of the strain and stress calculated by the proposed method, and the current configuration is updated by the total displacements, which completely overcomes the false volume expansion and provides reasonable linear strains.     

Application of entropy analysis of in situ droplet-size spectra in evaluation of oil chemical dispersion efficacy

In situ droplet-size distributions were measured using a laser in situ scattering and transmissiometry (LISST-100X) particle size analyzer during the evaluation of natural and chemical dispersion efficiency of crude oils under different wave and current conditions. An entropy grouping of the in situ dispersed oil droplet-size spectra has classified the multi-modal droplet-size distributions into different groups based on similar droplet-size spectra characteristics within groups and distinction between groups. A generalized linear logistic regression model was fitted to analyze the effects of a number of factors and their interactions on the grouping of oil droplet-size spectra. The grouped results corresponded to the oil dispersion efficiency at different levels. This new method for droplet-size distribution data analysis can have significant implication in field evaluation of natural and chemical dispersion efficiency of oil.     

Preface to the special issue on seismic array analysis and CEArray

A seismic array is a set of seismographs being arranged in a regular geometric pattern to improve signalto-noise ratio (SNR).Seismic arrays at various length scales have been introduced since early 1960s and have been proved to be superior to single three-component stations for detecting and characterizing signals from earthquakes and explosions.     

雅丹地貌研究评述与展望

雅丹地貌是风蚀地貌研究的重要对象,目前研究较为薄弱.雅丹地貌自瑞典探险家斯文赫定命名并开始研究以来,已有百余年的历史.随着科学技术的不断进步和研究方法的更新,已取得了重要进展,但仍存在许多问题.首先对雅丹地貌的科学定义、空间分布、形态特征、形成发育条件、形成发育过程、形成年代、与环境的关系和分类等8方面的进展和问题进行...