T106产品夏季降水概率预报自动化系统

利用１０６格点场资料,构造能反映本地天气动力学牲的组合预报因子,对预报时效场进行叠加处理,对预报着急区格点资料取其均值或极值。预报因子和预报量均采用非线性０、１化自理。用最优子集回归建立降水预报方程用多因子概率权重回归其降水概率。系统从资料采集到输出概率结果在５８６以上微机上实现全自动化,预报结果客观、定量。     

由太阳近红外直接辐射强度遥测大气水汽总含量

用一台单色计在地面测量太阳0.873微米和0.942微米辐射强度比值。该比值可以有效地消除气溶胶和雷利散射,仅剩下水汽吸收效应,从而能够较好地确定大气垂直路径和斜程路径的水汽总含量。本文还详细讨论了获得校正曲线的方法。     

华东台风降水预报的一种集成

如何改进预报集成是当前业务预报上急需解决的问题。本文给台风降水定义了重解。根据重解对众多预报结果作自动筛选，最终由人机对话对少数近邻的预报结果作出集成。该集成能远离平均态， 适用于大的台风降水之预报。     

TRMM测雨产品3B42与台站资料在中国区域的对比分析

本文利用2004—2008年6—8月中国673个气象站逐6小时降水资料检验同期TRMM测雨产品3B42的精度。经检验得出：卫星资料日平均降水和降水频率空间分布与台站资料非常类似,相关系数分别能达到0.79和0.84,降水频率与台站资料相比偏大;从日降水相关空间分布看,卫星资料在东部地区相关性较高,日降水相关系数都在0.6～0.9之间;从日降水和逐6小时降水平均绝对误差空间分布看,卫星资料在华南地区误差最大,长江流域次之;从中国8个区域逐6小时降水总量日变化看,卫星资料与台站资料有很好的一致性,但在华南地区20时降水量偏小;按不同雨量等级对比,发现卫星资料绝对误差相对百分率空间分布有如下特点：小雨全国普遍数值偏高,中雨东部部分地区偏大,大雨和暴雨整体上数值小于1;全国平均漏演率和空演率分别为10%和14%。     

Observational evidence for the Monin-Obukhov similarity under all stability conditions

Data collected in the surface layer in a northern suburban area of Nanjing from 15 November to 29 December 2007 were analyzed to examine the Monin-Obukhov similarity for describing the turbulent fluctu- ations of 3D winds under all stability conditions and to obtain the turbulence characteristics under different weather conditions. The results show that the dimensionless standard deviations of turbulent velocity com- ponents (σ u /u* , σ v /u* , σ w /u * ) and dimensionless turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) can be well described by "1/3" power law relationships under stable, neutral, and unstable conditions, with σ u /u * > σ v /u * > σ w /u* . Land use and land cover changes mainly impact dimensionless standard deviations of horizontal component fluctuations, but they have very little on those of the vertical component. The dimensionless standard devi- ations of wind components and dimensionless TKE are remarkably affected by different weather conditions; the deviations of horizontal wind component and dimensionless TKE present fog day > clear sky > overcast > cloudy; the trend of the vertical wind component is the reverse. The surface drag coefficient at a Nan- jing suburban measurement site during the observation period was obviously higher than at other reported plains and plateau areas, and was approximately one order larger in magnitude than the reported plains areas. Dimensionless standard deviation of temperature declined with increasing |z /L| with an approximate "-1/3" slope in unstable stratification and "-2/3" slope in stable stratification.     

长江中下游马头斑岩型钼铜矿床常量元素、稀土元素特征及迁移规律研究

安徽马头钼铜矿是长江中下游成矿带中斑岩型矿床的典型代表,矿床在空间上划分出了3个不同的蚀变分带,即钾长石化带、石英-绢云母化带和青磐岩化带.本文对该矿床不同蚀变带内的常量元素迁移规律和稀土元素特征进行了探讨:①常量元素的迁移规律明显,从钾长石化带和石英-绢云母化带到青磐岩化带,均为带入的主要成分有K2O、CaO、Fe2O3、SiO2、H2O+,说明引起蚀变的流体中富含K2O、CaO等;而Na2O、FeO、MnO等成分的明显带出,说明矿化蚀变作用导致Na2O、FeO等成分向矿体迁移方向流失,其中Na2O的贫化最明显,与成矿元素Mo、Cu呈显著的负相关.②马头钼铜矿床花岗闪长斑岩的稀土配分模式图表现为左高右低的较平滑曲线,轻稀土富集,重稀土亏损.稀土元素的质量迁移计算结果同样证明了稀土元素在矿化蚀变过程中发生了分馏,且从钾长石化带到青磐岩化带,稀土元素带出量呈递增趋势.③该矿床样品的稀土元素配分特征表明,较新鲜花岗闪长斑岩与蚀变围岩的曲线基本相同,表明成矿物质主要来自花岗闪长岩熔体,并且可能有海水的混入.由δEu、δCe值及Fe2O3与FeO带出带入的关系可知,斑岩流体晚期氧逸度逐渐升高,表明成矿环境可能由相对还原过渡到氧化环境.④除Al2O3、TiO2保持惰性外,常量元素、稀土元素在矿化蚀变过程中都发生不同程度的带入带出,富集贫化特征和迁移规律不完全相同.     

甘肃河西走廊两次强对流天气对比分析

使用地面高空观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°6小时再分析数据和张掖CINRAD/CC雷达观测数据,对2006年7月7日、8月10日发生在甘肃河西走廊中部的两次强对流天气的环流形势、大气稳定度、相对风暴螺旋度(SRH)、天气雷达回波特征进行了对比分析.分析结果表明:产生这两次强对流天气环流形势不同.7月7日飑线对流系统产生于北部沙漠戈壁由北向南移动,右移飑线前部结构为气旋式旋转;8月10日对流系统产生于青藏高原由南向北移动,来自高原上的暖湿气流水汽充足,不稳定层比7月7日深厚,产生冰雹的左移超级单体结构为反气旋式旋转.7月7日右移飑线相对风暴螺旋度降雹前为正值,降雹开始后转为负值;8月10日左移反气旋超级单体相对风暴螺旋度在发展期为负值,降雹开始后跃增到60m2·s-2以上.     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION ON THE RESPONSE OF LAND SURFACE TO SEVERE WEATHER

A coupled model of RAMS3b(Regional Atmospheric Modeling System,Version 3b)andLSPM(a land surface process model),in which some basic hydrological processes such asprecipitation,evapotranspiration.surface runoff,infiltration and bottom drainage are included,has been established.With the coupled model,we have simulated the response of soil to the severeweather process which caused the disastrous flood in north italy during 4-7.November,1994,simultaneously compared with the observation and the original RAMS3b,which has a soil andvegetation parameterization scheme(hereafter,SVP)emphasizing on the surface energy fluxes,while some hydrological processes in the soil are not described clearly.The results show that the differences between coupling LSPM and SVP exist mainly in theresponse of soil to the precipitation.The soil in the SVP never saturates under the strong input ofprecipitation,while the newly coupled model seems better,the soil has been saturated for one dayor more and causes strong surface runoff,which constitutes the flood.Further sensitivityexperiments show that the surface hydrological processes are very sensitive to the initial soilmoisture and soil type when we compared the results with a relatively dry case and sandy soil.The coupled model has potentiality for simulation on the interaction between regional climateand land surface hydrological processes,and the regional water resources research concerningdesertification,drought and flood.     

柴达木盆地南缘石炭系Chondrites遗迹化石的发现及其地质意义

在柴达木盆地南缘野外地质调查过程中,在祁曼塔格山前石拐子剖面下石炭统石拐子组和乌图美仁庆华铁矿附近剖面的上石炭统缔敖苏组中发现了大量Chondrites遗迹化石。经鉴定,研究区的Chondrites遗迹化石主要包括Chondrites fenxiangensis Yang,1984（分乡丛藻迹）;Chondrites filifalx Volk,1964（细枝丛藻迹）和Chondrites maqianensis Yang,1988（玛沁丛藻迹）3个遗迹种。根据研究区的Chondrites遗迹化石特征,结合岩性特征和其他实体化石资料,认为石拐子地区早石炭世为台洼沉积环境,乌图美仁庆华铁矿地区晚石炭世为局限碳酸盐岩台地沉积环境。另外,探讨了生物扰动对两个地区储集层的改造作用。该研究对恢复柴达木盆地南缘的沉积环境和古生态以及评价研究区的储集层物性具有重要的借鉴意义。     

塔河地区志留系的对比

塔河地区遭受过多次的构造抬升和剥蚀，志留系分布不规则，地层划分对比是本区寻找志留系油气藏的难题之一。本文综合应用古生物、测井、地震和野外露头资料进行地层划分对比，首先通过疑源类古生物的分析，确认塔河地区井下志留系的存在；继而分析其地震反射特征，通过地震一测井地层对比，将其与东河砂岩予以区分；最后通过与柯坪野外露头剖面的岩石地层对比，确认塔河地区所钻遇的志留系确为下志留统的柯坪塔格组中段。