麦盖提斜坡奥陶系碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素特征及其意义

依据实测的塔里木盆地麦盖提斜坡玉北地区41个碳酸盐岩碳氧同位素数据,结合岩石学方法,研究了碳氧同位素的组成、演化及其地质意义。数据显示,δ~(13) C值主要分布在-2.6‰~0.7‰,均值为-1.0‰;δ~(18) O值分布在-9.4‰~-3.5‰,均值为-6.9‰。玉北地区古盐度为118.39~126.34,平均为121.94。奥陶系碳酸盐岩淡水改造作用明显。碳氧同位素的组成和演化不但可以指示沉积环境,而且还与生物生产率以及古海平面变化呈正相关性:δ~(13) C的低值对应于局限台地台内滩亚相沉积环境;δ~(13) C的高值对应于开阔台地滩间海、台内滩亚相沉积环境。碳氧同位素组成还对成岩环境有明显响应:鹰山组δ~(13) C与δ~(18) O均向高负值偏移,表明经历过强烈的表生岩溶作用;蓬莱坝组δ~(13) C低—中负值,δ~(18) O表现为高负值,在白云岩储层中可见鞍状白云石及燧石,主要为深埋藏成岩环境;良里塔格组同位素特征为δ~(18) O高负值,δ~(13) C低正值,并且在进入埋藏岩溶阶段之前还经历过风化壳岩溶作用。     

The assessment of landslide susceptibility mapping using random forest and decision tree methods in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,China

Landslide susceptibility mapping is an indispensable prerequisite for landslide prevention and reduction. At present, research into landslide susceptibility mapping has begun to combine machine learning with remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The random forest model is a new integrated classification method, but its application to landslide susceptibility mapping remains limited. Landslides represent a serious threat to the lives and property of people living in the Zigui–Badong area in the Three Gorges region of China, as well as to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, the geological structure of this region is complex, involving steep mountains and deep valleys. The purpose of the current study is to produce a landslide susceptibility map of the Zigui–Badong area using a random forest model, multisource data, GIS, and remote sensing data. In total, 300 pre-existing landslide locations were obtained from a landslide inventory map. These landslides were identified using visual interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing images, topographic and geologic data, and extensive field surveys. The occurrence of landslides is closely related to a series of environmental parameters. Topographic, geologic, Landsat-8 image, raining data, and seismic data were used as the primary data sources to extract the geo-environmental factors influencing landslides. Thirty-four layers of causative factors were prepared as predictor variables, which can mainly be categorized as topographic, geological, hydrological, land cover, and environmental trigger parameters. The random forest method is an ensemble classification technique that extends diversity among the classification trees by resampling the data with replacement and randomly changing the predictive variable sets during the different tree induction processes. A random forest model was adopted to calculate the quantitative relationships between the landslide-conditioning factors and the landslide inventory map and then generate a landslide susceptibility map. The analytical results were compared with known landslide locations in terms of area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The random forest model has an area ratio of 86.10%. In contrast to the random forest (whole factors, WF), random forest (12 major factors, 12F), decision tree (WF), decision tree (12F), the final result shows that random forest (12F) has a higher prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, the random forest models have higher prediction accuracy than the decision tree model. Subsequently, the landslide susceptibility map was classified into five classes (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high). The results demonstrate that the random forest model achieved a reasonable accuracy in landslide susceptibility mapping. The landslide hazard zone information will be useful for general development planning and landslide risk management.     

Numerical investigation of slippage characteristics of normal and reverse faults under fluid injection and production

Nowadays, a great deal of petroleum geology and engineering projects associated with underground fluid injection and production (FIP) are widely conducted around the world. The FIP engineering may cause complex stress perturbation and trigger seismicity, which have been extensively reported and studied. In this paper, we investigated the fault slippage characteristics influenced by FIP. It reveals that for a fault (normal or reverse) that penetrating through the reservoir into the caprock and underburden, the footwall reservoir is the relatively stable one for fluid injection in a fluid FIP engineering. No matter it is a normal or a reverse fault, injecting fluid into footwall reservoir and producing fluid from the hanging wall reservoir can induce smaller fault slippage. After having determined the better fluid injection–production pattern, we studied the influence of three key factors of fault, i.e., dip, offset and depth, on fault stability. We found that, in our range of study, the influence of single action of fault dip, offset or depth on fault slippage in a FIP engineering was small. However, the influence of the combined effects of the factors may be large. Finally, we studied the effect of different pressure management scenarios on fault responses based on the specific fluid injection–production pattern. The results revealed that appropriate pressure management could effectively reduce fault slippage in a FIP engineering. However, inappropriate pressure management may cause much larger fault slippage. Given these concerns, it is therefore vital that the effect of pressure management scenario to be modeled prior to FIP.     

Semiannual velocity variations around the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan Earthquake fault zone revealed by ambient noise and ACROSS active source data

We continuously monitor the long-term seismic velocity variation of one of the major ruptured faults of the devastating 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan earthquake in China from July 2009 to January 2012,jointly using accurately controlled routinely operated signal system active source and seismic noise-based monitoring technique.Our measurements show that the temporal velocity change is not homogeneous and highly localized in the damaged fault zone and the adjacent areas.Velocity variations from the active and passive methods are quite consistent,which both are characterized by ±0.2 % seasonal variation,with peak and trough at winter and summer,respectively.The periodic velocity variation within fault zone exhibits remarkably positive correlation with barometric pressure with stress sensitivity in the order of 10-6Pa-1,suggesting that the plausible mechanism might be the crack density variation of the shallow subsurface medium of the damaged fault zone in response to the cyclic barometric pressure loading.     

云南鲁甸6.5级地震灾害特点浅析

通过对2014年8月3日云南鲁甸6.5级地震震害开展实地调查,对灾区破坏情况进行总体介绍,并就各烈度区特征和建筑物震害、地震地质灾害、工程结构震害进行分析,初步得出本次地震的一些震害特点.一是灾区人口密度大,人员死亡较集中.人员死亡主要集中在Ⅷ和Ⅸ度区.二是地震振动强,灾区破坏严重.本次地震震源深度12km,极震区烈度高达Ⅸ度,震源破裂在11s内集中释放.三是抗震能力弱,房屋破坏严重.灾区属国家级贫困区,农村民居抗震能力弱,且多数民房坐落在河谷陡坡上,边坡效应加重房屋震害,重灾区砖木和土木房屋成片损毁、倒塌.四是灾区条件恶劣,救灾难度大.震区活动断裂密集发育、地质破碎疏松、地形崎岖不平,又恰值雨季,诱发极其严重次生地质灾害,导致人员伤亡,造成灾区大面积交通、通信、电力中断,救援物资与救援力量无法及时发挥作用.     

软土地区地铁车站结构的非线性地震反应分析

为了明确天津市软土地基对地铁车站的结构地震反应的影响规律,以天津市地铁3号线的昆明路站为工程背景,采用数值模拟分析的方法,研究了该地铁站的地震反应。通过建立二维平面有限元模型,分析了结构抗震薄弱环节及结构抗震性能的影响因素。研究结果表明:天津宁河波作用下结构中柱内力响应明显大于其他构件,且柱底连接处内力幅值最大,为结构抗震薄弱环节;周围土层的弹性模量及上覆土层厚度对结构抗震性能的影响更明显,而结构自身的等效弹性模量对结构抗震性能影响不明显。研究成果丰富了软土地区地铁车站抗震设计理论,对地铁车站的优化设计具有重要意义。     

青藏高原风沙堆积对多年冻土影响研究进展

受全球气候变化和人类活动影响,青藏高原上的土地沙漠化正呈现加速发展态势。沙漠化产生的风沙堆积势必改变地表辐射和能量平衡状况,对较为敏感和脆弱的多年冻土环境造成影响,并可能影响青藏铁路路基的稳定性。因此,研究积沙对多年冻土的影响对于高原沙害防治、多年冻土保护和道路工程建设都具有重要的理论及现实意义。目前,前人已在青藏高原地表能量平衡研究方面取得了一些成果,并开始关注积沙对冻土温度影响问题。然而,由于已有观测资料的连续性、同步性和可比性等局限,对积沙地表辐射和能量平衡方面的研究还比较薄弱,积沙对冻土温度过程影响的研究结果尚不一致,而积沙对路基影响的问题也亟待开展研究。为此,本文提出了加强定位观测、开展室内低温实验以及数值模拟等建议,以期对今后的深入研究起到抛砖引玉作用。     

我国地形变观测预报地震的现状及对地震预测问题的思考

本文展示了我国地形变观测的状况,讨论了以地形变观测预报地震的基本思路及应用情况,探讨了地震预测面临的困难及地形变观测须解决的技术问题。最后,作者认为,地震预报目前或今后很长一段时间都将是以观测为主的试验性科学,物理统计分析方法是研究地震孕育动力学过程或进行预测的最具有潜力的途径之一。     

Geochemical baseline of trace elements in the sediment in Dexing area,South China

A baseline might be used as a point of reference to monitor change from some specific data without concern for whether the baseline determination is natural or has been changed by human activity. We selected 326 sediment samples from Dexing area, South China, and analyzed for 17 chemical elements. The geochemical baseline was predicted with the method of the normalization procedure combined with the relative cumulative frequency curve. The results indicate Al was the best reference element for the normalization procedure among four potential reference elements (Al, Fe, Ti, and Mn). The baseline value range obtained from the normalization procedure method included both the regional geochemical background of the sediment and the median value of the measured contents. The median value of baselines obtained from relative cumulative frequency method was lower than that obtained from normalization procedure method. In contrast to the geochemical patterns of heavy metals in 1987, the spatial distribution of anomalies sprawled in 2004 in study area, especially for Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, As, Fe, and Cr.