Effective and Equitable Dissemination of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasts: Policy Implications from the Peruvian Fishery during El Niño 1997–98

The development of seasonal-to-interannual climate predictions has spurred widespread claims that the dissemination of such forecasts will yield benefits for society. Based on the use as well as non-use of forecasts in the Peruvian fishery during the 1997–98 El Niño event, weidentify: (1) potential constraints on the realization of benefits, such aslimited access to and understanding of information, and unintended reactions; (2) theneed for an appropriately detailed definition of societal benefit, considering whose welfare counts as a benefit among groups such as labor, industry, consumers, citizens of different regions, and future generations.We argue that consideration of who benefits, and an understanding of potential socioeconomic constraints and how they might be addressed, should be brought to bear on forecast dissemination choices. We conclude with examples of relevant dissemination choices made using this process.     

Aerosol characterization and optical thickness retrievalsusing GOME and METEOSAT satellite data

Summary ?Retrievals of atmospheric aerosol optical thickness are highly dependent on the choice of the class describing the aerosol properties leading to significant errors while using classes available in the literature. High spectral resolution measurements from GOME (Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment) between the ultraviolet and the near infrared can be used for an accurate characterization of the aerosol optical properties. The radiometer MVIRI (METEOSAT Visible and Infrared Imager) on board the geostationary satellite METEOSAT, while being equipped only with broadband VIS channel, ensures an adequate half-hourly monitoring of the atmospheric conditions over a large portion of the Earth. The present algorithm is based on a combination of data from both sensors for the retrieval of the aerosol optical thickness at the reference wavelength of 0.55 μm (AOT). A case of a desert dust outbreak from the African continent over the Atlantic Ocean is examined. AOT values obtained using a priori fixed classes taken from the literature are compared with those retrieved with this algorithm using the GOME-derived classes. Systematic differences of the order of a few tenths on average are found which remain significant also after considering the measurement errors. This represents a novelty introduced by the synergetic use of both sensors. Received March 13, 2002     

Advective, orographic and radiation fog in the Tarapacá region, Chile

A project in northern Chile was undertaken to determine the origin and behaviour of fog in the coastal and inland locations of the Tarapacá Region. In the Pampa del Tamarugal, 50 km from the sea, conditions exist for the formation of radiation fog. Advective fog has been studied on the coast and orographic fog was observed at a few coastal sites near mountain ranges with elevations above 1000 m. Fog water collected by two standard fog collectors (SFC) for 3 1/2 years showed an average flux of 8.5 l m⁻² day⁻¹ on the coast and 1.1 l m⁻² day⁻¹ inland 12 km from the coastline. On only a few days in 10 months was water collected at the inland site of Pampa del Tamarugal. GOES satellite images are shown to illustrate the pattern of formation of the stratocumuli cloud over the sea, its approach to the coastline, the entrance of fog by corridors through the coastal range and the presence of radiation fog inland. The results are important for the understanding of fog formation and dissipation along the coastal mountain range and for the recognition of potential sites for the installation of fog water collectors, which can be used as a water source in the Atacama Desert. The results also provide vital information for use in the preservation of the unique ecosystems of the most arid desert of the world.     

Optimal design of passive energy dissipation systems based on H∞ and H2 performances

Passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs), such as viscous dampers, viscoelastic dampers, etc., have been used to effectively reduce the dynamic response of civil infrastructures, such as buildings and bridges, subject to earthquakes and strong winds. The design of these passive energy dissipation devices (EDDs) involves the determination of the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities. In this paper, we present two optimal design methodologies for passive EDDs based on active control theories, including H_∞ and H₂ performances, respectively. The optimal design methodologies presented are capable of determining the optimal locations and the corresponding capacities of EDDs. Emphasis is placed on the application of linear matrix inequality (LMI) for the effective design of passive EDDs using the popular MATLAB toolboxes. One important advantage of the proposed approaches is that the computation of the structural response is not needed in the design process. The proposed optimal design methodologies have been applied to: (i) a 10‐storey building and a 24‐storey building both subject to earthquake excitations, and (ii) a 76‐storey wind‐excited benchmark building, to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed design methodologies over the conventional equal capacity design. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐objective optimal design of FLC driven hybrid mass damper for seismically excited structures

Structural vibration control using active or passive control strategy is a viable technology for enhancing structural functionality and safety against natural hazards such as strong earthquakes and high wind gusts. Both the active and passive control systems have their limitations. The passive control system has limited capability to control the structural response whereas the active control system depends on external power. The power requirement for active control of civil engineering structures is usually quite high. Thus, a hybrid control system is a viable solution to alleviate some of the limitations. In this paper a multi‐objective optimal design of a hybrid control system for seismically excited building structures has been proposed. A tuned mass damper (TMD) and an active mass driver (AMD) have been used as the passive and active control components of the hybrid control system, respectively. A fuzzy logic controller (FLC) has been used to drive the AMD as the FLC has inherent robustness and ability to handle the non‐linearities and uncertainties. The genetic algorithm has been used for the optimization of the control system. Peak acceleration and displacement responses non‐dimensionalized with respect to the uncontrolled peak acceleration and displacement responses, respectively, have been used as the two objectives of the multi‐objective optimization problem. The proposed design approach for an optimum hybrid mass damper (HMD) system, driven by FLC has been demonstrated with the help of a numerical example. It is shown that the optimum values of the design parameters of the hybrid control system can be determined without specifying the modes to be controlled. The proposed FLC driven HMD has been found to be very effective for vibration control of seismically excited buildings in comparison with the available results for the same example structure but with a different optimal absorber. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic analysis of peak response of MDOF systems with uncertain PSD function

The use of uniform hazard spectra which have the same probability of exceedance at different frequencies has been proposed for the future version of the National Building Code of Canada. Commonly used combination rules to estimate the peak responses of multi‐degree‐of‐freedom (MDOF) systems are the square root of sum of squares rule and the complete quadratic combination rule. However, the probability that the peak response of a MDOF system exceeds the one estimated by using these rules with the peak modal responses from the uniform hazard spectra cannot be inferred directly. The assessment of the probability of exceedance of the peak response of MDOF systems is presented by considering that the uncertainty in seismic excitation due to all potential earthquakes can be lumped in the power spectral density function of the ground acceleration with uncertain model parameters. This probability is evaluated based on the random vibration of linear systems and the first‐order reliability method. It is found that the under‐ or over‐estimations are less than about 5 or 10% if the modal contributions are not within 10–90% of, or not within 20–80% of, the absolute sum of the effective modal peak responses, respectively. Otherwise, severe under‐ or over‐estimation could result. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling evaporation using an artificial neural network algorithm

This paper investigates the prediction of Class A pan evaporation using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The ANN back propagation algorithm has been evaluated for its applicability for predicting evaporation from minimum climatic data. Four combinations of input data were considered and the resulting values of evaporation were analysed and compared with those of existing models. The results from this study suggest that the neural computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling the evaporation process from the available climatic data set. However, an analysis of the residuals from the ANN models developed revealed that the models showed significant error in predictions during the validation, implying loss of generalization properties of ANN models unless trained carefully. The study indicated that evaporation values could be reasonably estimated using temperature data only through the ANN technique. This would be of much use in instances where data availability is limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原北羌塘半岛湖新生代粗面玄武岩橄榄石电子探针和激光探针分析

利用电子探针和激光探针剥蚀系统（LA-ICP-MS），对北羌塘新第三纪粗面玄武岩中的橄榄石主元素和微量、稀土元素进行了系统分析。结果表明，本区橄榄石Fo平均为88，属贵橄榄石种属。相对富集Ni、Co和重稀土，而强烈亏损轻稀土及Rb、Sr、Ba、Zr等大离子亲石元素。其稀土元素配分型配分型式与粗面玄武岩全岩稀土配分型式呈互补状态。     

Mobility of Phosphorus during the Weathering of Volcanic Ashes

Data are presented on phosphorus mobility during the weathering of rhyolite–dacite tephra of the modern and ancient eruptions. Distal tephra cannot be considered a phosphorus source, since phosphorous has low mobility during weathering both in subaerial and subaqueous sedimentation conditions. However, volcanic ashes exert a fertilization effect, providing the supply of nutrient elements into the ecosystem of internal basins and coastal zones.