Vegetation and climate variability during the Last Interglacial evidenced in the pollen record from Lake Baikal

A pollen record from the core sediments collected in the northern part of Lake Baikal represents the latest stage of the Taz (Saale) Glaciation, Kazantsevo (Eemian) Interglacial (namely the Last Interglacial), and the earliest stage of the Zyryanka (Weichselian) Glaciation. According to the palaeomagnetic-based age model applied to the core, the Last Interglacial in the Lake Baikal record lasted about 10.6 ky from 128 to 117.4 ky BP, being more or less synchronous with the Marine Isotope Stage 5e. The reconstructed changes in the south Siberian vegetation and climate are summarised as follows: a major spread of shrub alder (Alnus fruticosa) and shrub birches (Betula sect. Nanae/Fruticosae) in the study area was a characteristic feature during the late glacial phase of the Taz Glaciation. Boreal trees e.g. spruce (Picea obovata) and birch (Betula sect. Albae) started to play an important role in the regional vegetation with the onset of the interglacial conditions. Optimal conditions for Abies sibirica–P. obovata taiga development occurred ca. 126.3 ky BP. The maximum spread of birch forest-steppe communities took place at the low altitudes ca. 126.5–125.5 ky BP and Pinus sylvestris started to form forests in the northern Baikal area after ca. 124.4 ky BP. Re-expansion of the steppe communities, as well as shrubby alder and willow communities and the disappearance of forest vegetation occurred at about 117.4 ky BP, suggesting the end of the interglacial succession. The changes in the pollen assemblages recorded in the sediments from northern Baikal point to a certain instability of the interglacial climate. Three phases of climate deterioration have been distinguished: 126–125.5, 121.5–120, and 119.5–119 ky BP. The penultimate cooling signal may be correlated with the cool oscillation recorded in European pollen records. However, such far distant correlation requires more careful investigation.     

The intra-Saalian interstadial floras of the Chojny Formation of Belchatów,central Poland

The Saalian sequence of Belchatów, central Poland, is exceptionally thick and complete. Five tills, two from the older Saalian (Odranian, Drenthe) and three from the younger Saalian (Wartanian, Warthe), which are separated by the fluvial Chojny Formation, have been identified. The Saalian sequence at Be?chatów is underlain by Holsteinian and overlain by Eemian sequences, both palaeobotanically analysed. The Chojny Formation contains deposits of meandering (lower member) and braided (upper member) rivers, with occasional aeolian deposits. The lower member of the formation contains numerous organic layers. Pollen analysis indicates temperate (sub-boreal) to cold (sub-arctic) climatic conditions, with coniferous to mixed forests in the optimum phase of the interstadial. The interstadial floras of the Chojny Formation are interpreted as representing the intra-Saalian Pilica Interstadial. Profiles from Belchatów are designated as the stratotype profiles of this substage. The data from Be?chatów show clearly that reforestation occurred between the major advances of the Saalian ice sheet, although only interstadial rank, not interglacial, may be inferred from the pollen data.     

The Late Vistulian and Holocene evolution of Jezioro Lake: a record of environmental change in southern Poland found in deposits and landforms

Jezioro Lake is the only natural lake in southern Poland outside mountainous areas to have existed continuously since the Pleistocene. The record of environmental change in the Late Vistulian (Weichselian) and Holocene is preserved in the deposits and landforms around the lake. This paper presents the results of paleogeographical and paleoecological research that emabled us to reconstruct the history of the Jezioro Lake. At the end of the Vistulian period, the outlet of the lake was blocked by a parabolic dune moving in from the west. Limnic sedimentation was evident in the sediment core at all levels from the Holocene, with remains of Cladocera, Chironomidae larvae, and aquatic plants. The lake did not disappear at that time, although its area decreased by a factor of 12 by the end of the period. Paleobotanical research permitted the reconstruction of sequences of plant communities and changes in nutrient status and water level. An initial oligotrophic lake, as indicated by the presence of Iso?tes lacustris L., changed to a eutrophic lake, as indicated by the presence of Potamogeton natans L. and Nuphar sp., then the lake progressed to the present-day dystrophic lake that is surrounded by a swamp. The profile of organic deposits contains a record of environmental change at least since the Younger Dryas in southern Poland.     

On the recent strengthening of the relationship between ENSO and northeast monsoon rainfall over South Asia

The southeastern parts of India and Sri Lanka receive substantial rainfall from the northeast monsoon (NEM) during October through December. The interannual variability in NEM rainfall is known to be significantly influenced by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unlike the southwest monsoon (SWM), the NEM rainfall is enhanced during the warm ENSO events, and vice versa. In the context of the recent weakening of the inverse relationship between Southwest Monsoon (SWM) and ENSO, we examine the secular variations in the positive relationship between ENSO and NEM rainfall over South Asia, showing that their relationship has strengthened over the recent years. Based on the analysis of GISST, IMD/CRU precipitation and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, we suggest that this secular variation of the relationship is due to epochal changes in the tropospheric circulation associated with ENSO over the region.     

National Inventory of Rabi Pulses in India Using Remotely Sensed Data

A scheme called National Food Security Mission was launched by Government of India in 2007 for wheat, rice and pulses crops. At the request of Ministry of Agriculture for monitoring intensification of pulses a project called Pulses Intensification was taken up in Rabi season 2012–2013. Reliable statistics using advanced methods is very important for variety of pulse crops. Remotely sensed data can help in pre-harvest area estimation of pulse crops. Pulses in India are grown as partly scattered and partly contiguous crop. Growth in scattered areas and poor vegetation canopy of some of the pulse crops poses a challenge in its identification and discrimination using remotely sensed data. National Inventory of Rabi pulse crops in major growing regions of northern and southern parts of India was attempted. Multi-date AWiFS data and multi-date NDVI products of AWiFS of Rabi season 2014–2015 were used to study spectral-temporal behavior of pulse crops. Pulse crops accuracies of more than 95 % was observed in contiguous areas and 50–80.77 % in scattered regions. All India area estimate of Rabi pulses for the year 2014–2015 was 8963.327 ‘000 ha.     

On the production of traveling ionospheric disturbances by atmospheric gravity waves

This paper deals with how atmospheric gravity waves produce the traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) that are observed by ionosondes. It is shown that, rather than directly producing variations of ionospheric height, a likely mechanism involves changes in ionization density by gradients in the horizontal atmospheric gravity wave air motion. These density changes can be observed as variations of the height of an ionospheric isodensity surface (the usual way of measuring TIDs). This mechanism involving enhancement/depletion of ionospheric density requires quite moderate atmospheric gravity wave air motion speeds, and works well at almost all latitudes.     

All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network

The prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) on a seasonal time scales has been attempted by various research groups using different techniques including artificial neural networks. The prediction of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales is not only scientifically challenging but is also important for planning and devising agricultural strategies. This article describes the artificial neural network (ANN) technique with error- back-propagation algorithm to provide prediction (hindcast) of ISMR on monthly and seasonal time scales. The ANN technique is applied to the five time series of June, July, August, September monthly means and seasonal mean (June + July + August + September) rainfall from 1871 to 1994 based on Parthasarathy data set. The previous five years values from all the five time-series were used to train the ANN to predict for the next year. The details of the models used are discussed. Various statistics are calculated to examine the performance of the models and it is found that the models could be used as a forecasting tool on seasonal and monthly time scales. It is observed by various researchers that with the passage of time the relationships between various predictors and Indian monsoon are changing, leading to changes in monsoon predictability. This issue is discussed and it is found that the monsoon system inherently has a decadal scale variation in predictability. Received: 13 March 1999 / Accepted: 31 August 1999     

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and seasonal Indian monsoon prediction in DEMETER coupled models

Even though multi-model prediction systems may have better skill in predicting the interannual variability (IAV) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM), the overall performance of the system is limited by the skill of individual models (single model ensembles). The DEMETER project aimed at seasonal-to-interannual prediction is not an exception to this case. The reasons for the poor skill of the DEMETER individual models in predicting the IAV of monsoon is examined in the context of the influence of external and internal components and the interaction between intraseasonal variability (ISV) and IAV. Recently it has been shown that the ISV influences the IAV through very long breaks (VLBs; breaks with duration of more than 10 days) by generating droughts. Further, all VLBs are associated with an eastward propagating Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the equatorial region, facilitated by air–sea interaction on intraseasonal timescales. This VLB-drought–MJO relationship is analyzed here in detail in the DEMETER models. Analyses indicate that the VLB-drought relationship is poorly captured by almost all the models. VLBs in observations are generated through air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale and the models’ inability to simulate VLB-drought relationship is shown to be linked to the models’ inability to represent the air–sea interaction on intraseasonal time scale. Identification of this particular deficiency of the models provides a direction for improvement of the model for monsoon prediction.