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71.
T. S. V. Vijaya Kumar J. Sanjay B. K. Basu A. K. Mitra D. V. Bhaskar Rao O. P. Sharma P. K. Pal T. N. Krishnamurti 《Natural Hazards》2007,41(3):471-485
This study entails the implementation of an experimental real time forecast capability for tropical cyclones over the Bay
of Bengal basin of North Indian Ocean. This work is being built on the experience gained from a number of recent studies using
the concept of superensemble developed at the Florida State University (FSU). Real time hurricane forecasts are one of the
major components of superensemble modeling at FSU. The superensemble approach of training followed by real time forecasts
produces the best forecasts for tracks and intensity (up to 5 days) of Atlantic hurricanes and Pacific typhoons. Improvements
in track forecasts of about 25–35% compared to current operational forecast models has been noted over the Atlantic Ocean
basin. The intensity forecasts for hurricanes are only marginally better than the best models. In this paper, we address tropical
cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal for the years 1996–2000. The main result from this study is that the position and
intensity errors for tropical cyclone forecasts over the Bay of Bengal from the multimodel superensemble are generally less
than those of all of the participating models during 1- to 3-day forecasts. Some of the major tropical cyclones, such as the
November 1996 Andhra Pradesh cyclone and October 1999 Orissa super cyclone were well handled by this superensemble approach.
A conclusion from this study is that the proposed approach may be a viable way to construct improved forecasts of Bay of Bengal
tropical cyclone positions and intensity. 相似文献
72.
73.
Numerical Simulation of Andhra Severe Cyclone (2003): Model Sensitivity to the Boundary Layer and Convection Parameterization 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
C. V. Srinivas R. Venkatesan D. V. Bhaskar Rao D. Hari Prasad 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(8-9):1465-1487
The Andhra severe cyclonic storm (2003) is simulated to study its evolution, structure, intensity and movement using the Penn
State/NCAR non-hydrostatic mesoscale atmospheric model MM5. The model is used with three interactive nested domains at 81,
27 and 9 km resolutions covering the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Indian Peninsula. The performance of the Planetary Boundary
Layer (PBL) and convective parameterization on the simulated features of the cyclone is studied by conducting sensitivity
experiments. Results indicate that while the boundary layer processes play a significant role in determining both the intensity
and movement, the convective processes especially control the movement of the model storm. The Mellor-Yamada scheme is found
to yield the most intensive cyclone. While the combination of Mellor-Yamada (MY) PBL and Kain-Fritsch 2 (KF2) convection schemes
gives the most intensive storm, the MRF PBL with KF2 convection scheme produces the best simulation in terms of intensity
and track. Results of the simulation with the combination of MRF scheme for PBL and KF2 for convection show the evolution
and major features of a mature tropical storm. The model has very nearly simulated the intensity of the storm though slightly
overpredicted. Simulated core vertical temperature structure, winds at different heights, vertical winds in and around the
core, vorticity and divergence fields at the lower and upper levels—all support the characteristics of a mature storm. The
model storm has moved towards the west of the observed track during the development phase although the location of the storm
in the initial and final phases agreed with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution associated with the storm
agreed reasonably with observations. 相似文献
74.
福建省矿产资源较丰富,各种规模矿山14000多座,为我省经济建设发挥了重要作用,由于粗放型开采,也引发了矿山地质灾害,造成多起伤亡事故和严重经济损失,同时引发社会安定问题。为此提出防治建议。 相似文献
75.
滇西上芒岗金矿床地质地球化学特征 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
上芒岗金矿由下部原生卡林型和上部 红色粘土型金矿体所组成,赋矿地层为侏罗系勐戛组砂泥质岩、白云质灰岩和二叠系沙子坡组泥硅质灰岩、白云岩。北东向上芒岗断裂构造与不整合面和岩溶的复合控制了矿床和矿体。围岩蚀变以硅化(似碧玉岩化)、黄铁矿化、碳酸盐化和粘土化为主,并具有水平与垂向分带性。地球化学研究表明,蚀变与矿化岩石的稀土含量与未蚀变泥质灰岩基本一致,成矿溶液为富CI^-型和富SO4^2-型,爆裂温度为183-378℃,δ^34S=6.471‰-21.965‰,δ^18O=9.3‰-11.6‰,δD=-70‰--77‰,^206Pb/^204Pb=19.551-20.05,^207Pb/^204Pb=15.690-16.240,^208Pb/^204Pb=38.710=40.137。红色粘土型矿石的红土化作用只达到粘土阶段。 相似文献
76.
G Nageswara Rao 《Journal of Earth System Science》2001,110(1):87-94
It is well known that heavy rainfall occurs in the southwestern sector of the monsoon depressions due to strong convergence
in that sector. By examining the rainfall distribution associated with the monsoon disturbances (lows and depressions) in
one of the central Indian river basins, ‘Godavari’, the author found that when the disturbance-centre is away from the basin,
heavy rainfall may also occur in the basin area close to the confluence line and cause severe floods in the river. The confluence
line is the zone of convergence between the northeasterlies to the west of the disturbance centre and the monsoon westerlies.
This study further reveals the importance of the position and movement of the confluence line with respect to the basin, on
which the intensity and the raising period of the resulting flood depend. 相似文献
77.
Long series of simultaneous VHF scintillation observations at two stations situated in near magnetic east-west direction in the vicinity of the dip equator in the Indian region have been employed to investigate the night-time ionospheric plasma zonal drifts. The drifts are found to be predominantly easterly. On comparing the magnitudes of the drifts with those results derived earlier by HF fading technique, monitoring signals from two satellites at a station and spaced receiver experiment, their associations with the season and the degree of solar activity are discussed. On a broader scale, the annual mean sunspot number is shown to have a direct control on the derived drift, the positive relationship even on day to day basis with the solar flux is established. However, the relationship, as understood by the slope of the best fit line, in the Indian region (0.27) is found to be weaker when compared with the similar slope (0.45) in the American sector. There appears to be no geomagnetic activity control on the estimated drifts. 相似文献
78.
Parabolic density function in sedimentary basin modelling 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
For modelling sedimentary basins of large thickness from their gravity anomalies, the concept of parabolic density function which explains the variation of true density contrast of the sediments with depth in such basins is introduced inBott's (1960) procedure. The analytical expression the gravity anomaly of a two-dimensional vertical prism with parabolic density contrast needed to estimate the gravity effect of the basin in modelling procedure is derived in a closed form. Two profiles of gravity anomalies, one across San Jacinto Graben, California and the other across Tucson basin, Arizona where the density of sediments is found to vary with depth are interpreted. 相似文献
79.
Miscellaneous information 1989 (Addendum) 相似文献
80.
S. Subba Rao 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1971,35(4):998-1011
Recent investigations on the Deccan Traps reveal many new findings of alkaline rocks more commonly occurring as minor intrusions than as lava flows. In comparison to the vast extent of the Deccan Traps, the alkaline rocks are negligible in their volume and are confined to tectonic belts in parts of Western India. The rocks exhibit no systematic variation in their petrographical and chemical characters thereby suggesting that they were not derived from a primary alkali olivine-basalt magma. The possibility of derivation of alkaline magma locally along the rift zones is proposed. Some of the alkaline rocks are shown to have been formed due to the effective role of volatiles in bringing dissociation of feldspar in certain cases, and alkali metasomatism in others. The syntexis of the pre-Deccan Trap carbonate rocks along the Narmada rift zone is also responsible for some occurrences. 相似文献