Detection of a 50-day oscillation in the Wolf number

Резюме Вaрuaцuu с nерuо?rt;ом около 50 ?rt;неŭ (коmорые ?rt;aвно обнaружены в uзмененuях nро?rt;олжumельносmu суmок u во мно uх меmеороло uческuх велuчuнaх, особенно в моменmе колuчесmвa ?rt;вuженuя amмосферы) былu рaскрыmы в солнечноŭ aкmuвносmu, оnuсaнноŭ чuслом Вольфa.      

Use of Space-Filling Curves in Generating a National Rural Sampling Frame for HIV/AIDS Research*

The classical geographic research problem of regionalization and resource allocation is most commonly tackled by means of location-allocation methods. This paper introduces the spatial-order method as an alternative for creating regions or clusters. The spatial-order method utilizes space-filling curves, also known as Peano curves, to determine the nearness or spatial order of areal units, such as counties. Given a capacity constraint, the areal units are grouped consecutively according to their spatial order values. We applied the method to create clusters of rural counties for a national sampling survey of HIV/AIDS patients in the United States. Using the criteria that each cluster had approximately 50 new AIDS cases in 1991–1993 and that contiguity of areal units was maximized, 226 clusters were created from the 1,853 rural counties or health districts. The rural clusters generated by this method have been adopted as the national rural sampling frame in the HIV Cost and Services Utilization Study (HCSUS) being undertaken by RAND. In addition to its simplicity and fast computational speed, the spatial-order method produces satisfactory results. With minor modifications, this method can be an efficient alternative to the location-allocation method for solving a wide variety of locational problems, such as routing, political districting, and facilities location and allocation. This paper also demonstrates how a classical geographic research methodology, with the enhancement of GIS, can contribute to the multidisciplinary study of a pressing societal problem in our nation.     

The potential of natural ecosystem self-purifying measures for controlling nutrient inputs

Most ecosystems have a certain assimilative capacity regarding plant nutrient or biodegradable organic matter. Knowledge of the metabolizing processes of different ecosystems enable the use of natural systems for pollution abatement from agricultural, domestic and industrial sources. Such ecologically engineered natural systems are often very cost efficient. At the Centre for Soil and Environmental Research (JORDFORSK) studies of degradation processes and the fate of plant nutrients in small streams, ponds, wetlands, vegetative filter strips and soil are being conducted in order to gain experience with and develop self purifying methods. Preliminary results show that denitrification in streams remove only a minor part of the annual nitrogen (N) transport (1–15%), but that this process can remove a considerable part of the N transport during summer. Constructed ponds and wetlands in streams draining agricultural areas showed 10–56% retention of soil particles, 23–40% of phosphorous (P) and 5–13% of N. Narrow ponds had a higher efficiency than wide ponds per unit surface area. Short-term experiments with vegetative strips treating agricultural runoff show a sediment removal of over 95%, a P removal from 80–90% and N removal between 60 and 75%. A multistage subsurface constructed wetland treating domestic waste-water removed an average of 97% P, 91% BOD, 80% of suspended solids, 55% N and 99.9% E. coli over the first 18 months of operation. Preliminary results from a multistage plant with constructed ponds and wetlands treating landfill leachate show high treatment efficiency for the same parameters. A rapid infiltration plant in northern Norway showed an average removal of 99% P, 90% COD and 73% N after 4 years of operation. These results show that self purifying measures offer potential for design of pollution abatement systems for agricultural as well as domestic purposes in the Norwegian climate.     

Challenges to addressing non-CO2 greenhouse gases in China’s long-term climate strategy

Under the Paris Agreement, countries are encouraged to submit long-term low greenhouse gas emissions development strategies. Such strategies will merge emissions goals with socio-economic objectives and enable countries to increase their ambition over time, thus offering an opportunity to close the gap between the current emissions trajectory and the Agreement’s ‘well below 2°C’ target. China is in the process of preparing its own long-term strategy. We argue in this article that non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (NCGGs) should be an essential component of China’s long-term low-emissions strategy. To incorporate NCGGs into China’s long-term low-emissions development strategy, key scientific and institutional challenges should be addressed, such as uncertainty about the accuracy of NCGG emissions inventories; uncertainty about future projections of NCGG emissions; and institutional coordination deficits and imbalanced policy approaches. Overcoming these barriers will have significant implications for climate change mitigation and can open a path for the development of concrete follow-up actions.

Key policy insights

• Non-CO₂ greenhouse gases (NCGGs) make up around 17% of China’s GHG emissions, but China has no quantified target to limit or reduce these gases.

• NCGG emissions mitigation should be an essential component of China's long-term low-emissions strategy, which is currently under development.

• Considerable uncertainty exists over both historical NCGG emissions data and forecasts. This poses challenges to developing a comprehensive multi-gas strategy.

• Institutional challenges must also be addressed, such as fragmentation of responsibility for NCGGs.

     

Assessing hyporheic exchange and associated travel times by hydraulic, chemical, and isotopic monitoring at the Steinlach Test Site, Germany

First results of a multi-disciplinary hyporheic monitoring study are presented from the newly established Steinlach Test Site in Southern Germany. The site is located in a bend of the River Steinlach (mean discharge of 1.8 m³/s) underlain by an alluvial sandy gravel aquifer connected to the stream. The overall objective is a better understanding of hyporheic exchange processes at the site and their interrelations with microbial community dynamics and biochemical reactions at the stream–groundwater interface. The present paper focuses on the distribution of lateral hyporheic exchange fluxes and their associated travel times at the Steinlach Test Site. Water level dynamics in various piezometers correspond to the different domains of hydraulic conductivity in the shallow aquifer and confirms hyporheic exchange of infiltrated stream water across the test site. Hydrochemical compositions as well as increased damping of continuous time series of electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature at the respective piezometers confirmed the inferred distribution of hyporheic flowpaths. Mean travel times ranging from 0.5 days close to the stream to more than 8 days in the upstream part of the test site could be estimated from deconvolution of EC and δ¹⁸O–H₂O data. The travel times agree well with the presumed flowpaths. Mg/Ca ratios as well as model fits to the EC and δ¹⁸O data indicate the presence of an additional water component in the western part of the test site which most likely consists of hillslope water or groundwater. Based on the mean travel times, the total lateral hyporheic exchange flux at the site was estimated to be of the order of 1–2 L/s.     

Genetic connectivity of the coral‐eating sea star Acanthaster planci during the severe outbreak of 2006–2009 in the Society Islands,French Polynesia

Occasional population outbreaks of the crown‐of‐thorns sea star, Acanthaster planci, are a major threat to coral reefs across the Indo‐Pacific. The presumed association between the serial nature of these outbreaks and the long larval dispersal phase makes it important to estimate larval dispersal; many studies have examined the population genetic structure of A. planci for this purpose using different genetic markers. However, only a few have focused on reef‐scale as well as archipelago‐scale genetic structure and none has used a combination of different genetic markers with different effective population sizes. In our study, we used both mtDNA and microsatellite loci to examine A. planci population genetic structure at multiple spatial scales (from <2 km to almost 300 km) within and among four islands of the Society Archipelago, French Polynesia. Our analysis detected no significant genetic structure based on mtDNA (global F_ST = ?0.007, P = 0.997) and low levels of genetic structure using microsatellite loci (global F_ST = 0.006, P = 0.005). We found no significant isolation by distance patterns within the study area for either genetic marker. The overall genetically homogenized pattern found in both the mitochondrial and nuclear loci of A. planci in the Society Archipelago underscores the significant role of larval dispersal that may cause secondary outbreaks, as well as possible recent colonization in this area.     

Vertical Hydraulic Gradient Estimation in Clay Till,Using MiHPT Advanced Direct-Push Technology

The vertical transport of contaminants from source areas is employed in many risk assessment models and screening tools in order to estimate the contaminant mass discharge (CMD) into underlying aquifers. The key parameters for estimating CMD are the contaminant source area and concentration, and the vertical water flux, the latter of which depends on the vertical hydraulic conductivity and the vertical hydraulic gradient in the subsurface. This study focuses on advancing the use of the combined membrane interface probe hydraulic profiling tool (MiHPT) to investigate the vertical hydraulic gradient across a clay till overlying a sandy aquifer at a contaminated site in Denmark. Only the HPT is necessary for the estimate of vertical hydraulic gradient. The hydraulic head, clay till thickness, and resulting vertical hydraulic gradients found using the MiHPT compared well with observations from nearby nested wells. The parameter with the largest discrepancy was the thickness of the clay till. The advantage of the MiHPT is its relatively quick depth discrete access to information regarding subsurface permeability, vertical hydraulic gradients and contaminant distribution across a site. In this case study, performance of additional dissipationtests during the HPT log to acquire determination of the vertical hydraulic gradient increased the cost by 3% compared to standard HPT logs.