Computer studies of the evolution of planetary and satellite systems I. Description of the program: Preliminary tests

In this paper we describe a CDC-Cyber 74 program for computer simulation of the evolution of a system consisting of a large number of objects in orbit around a central body or primary. Some preliminary tests done with the program will also be described.     

The response of a turbulent accretion disc to an imposed epicyclic shearing motion

We excite an epicyclic motion, the amplitude of which depends on the vertical position, z , in a simulation of a turbulent accretion disc. An epicyclic motion of this kind may be caused by a warping of the disc. By studying how the epicyclic motion decays, we can obtain information about the interaction between the warp and the disc turbulence. A high-amplitude epicyclic motion decays first by exciting inertial waves through a parametric instability, but its subsequent exponential damping may be reproduced by a turbulent viscosity. We estimate the effective viscosity parameter, α _v, pertaining to such a vertical shear. We also gain new information on the properties of the disc turbulence in general, and measure the usual viscosity parameter, α _h, pertaining to a horizontal (Keplerian) shear. We find that, as is often assumed in theoretical studies, α _v is approximately equal to α _h and both are much less than unity, for the field strengths achieved in our local box calculations of turbulence. In view of the smallness (∼0.01) of α _v and α _h we conclude that for β p _gas p _mag∼10 the time-scale for diffusion or damping of a warp is much shorter than the usual viscous time-scale. Finally, we review the astrophysical implications.     

A multi‐system geochronology in the Ad‐3 borehole,Pannonian Basin (Hungary) with implications for dating volcanic rocks by low‐temperature thermochronology and for interpretation of (U–Th)/He data

Independent geochronological and thermal modelling approaches are applied to a biostratigraphically exceptionally well‐controlled borehole, Alcsútdoboz‐3 (Ad‐3), in order to constrain the age of Cenozoic geodynamic events in the western Pannonian Basin and to test the efficacy of the methods for dating volcanic rocks. Apatite fission track and zircon U–Pb data show two volcanic phases of Middle Eocene (43.4–39.0 Ma) and Early Oligocene (32.72 ± 0.15 Ma) age respectively. Apatite (U–Th)/He ages (23.8–14.8 Ma) and independent thermal and subsidence history models reveal a brief period of heating to 55–70 °C at ~17 Ma caused by an increased heat‐flow related to crustal thinning and mantle upwelling. Our results demonstrate that, contrary to common perception, the apatite (U–Th)/He method is likely to record ‘apparent’ or ‘mixed’ ages resulting from subsequent thermal events rather than ‘cooling’ or ‘eruption’ ages directly related to distinct geological events. It follows that a direct conversion of ‘apparent’ or ‘mixed’ (U‐Th)/He ages into cooling, exhumation or erosion rates is incorrect.     

Roving revisited,towards an optimum throughfall sampling design

Additional aspects regarding the optimum fixed and roving sampling techniques, to those already explored in a previous authors’ throughfall study, are further investigated here. The roving technique consists in the random repositioning, with a frequency f_r, of N throughfall gauges among M positions (M > N), oppositely to the fixed or stationary arrangement where N = M. Both fixed and roving optimum sampling techniques of 100 monitored throughfall events sampled with 200 fixed gauges under a semideciduous tropical rain forest in Panama were investigated by means of Monte‐Carlo numerical experiments. Mean dispersion was shown to be always smaller in the roving versus the fixed gauge arrangement, independently of the relocation frequency studied (f_r = 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1), such that all roving schemes with N ≥ 50 gauges lay within ±5% of the mean cumulative throughfall. Results indicated that a low variability, high precision, and accuracy are obtained with a modest relocation frequency f_r = 0.2 (i.e. a relocation every five episodes of the original 100 measured events) and N = 30 roving gauges, with no significant improvement worth the extra field work beyond f_r > 0.2 and N >30. Only by increasing the number of roving positions from M < < 200 to M = 200, the precision and accuracy of the mean estimate were improved without comprising additional labour. Hence, a roving sampling scheme which relocates gauges over completely new fresh sites each roving cycle is recommended for future throughfall studies. Finally, we designed an a priori sampling strategy which permitted us to conclude that using only the first 20 out of the total 100 measuring events, for the remaining 80 throughfall field measurements, N = 40 roving gauges (i.e. five time less than the originally 200 gauges displayed) would have been sufficient for ensuring ≤5% error, expressed as percentage of the mean cumulative throughfall. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating runoff from a glacierized catchment using natural tracers in the semi‐arid Andes cordillera

This paper presents a methodology for hydrograph separation in mountain watersheds, which aims at identifying flow sources among ungauged headwater sub‐catchments through a combination of observed streamflow and data on natural tracers including isotope and dissolved solids. Daily summer and bi‐daily spring season water samples obtained at the outlet of the Juncal River Basin in the Andes of Central Chile were analysed for all major ions as well as stable water isotopes, δ¹⁸O and δD. Additionally, various samples from rain, snow, surface streams and exfiltrating subsurface water (springs) were sampled throughout the catchment. A principal component analysis was performed in order to address cross‐correlation in the tracer dataset, reduce the dimensionality of the problem and uncover patterns of variability. Potential sources were identified in a two‐component U‐space that explains 94% of the observed tracer variability at the catchment outlet. Hydrograph separation was performed through an Informative‐Bayesian model. Our results indicate that the Juncal Norte Glacier headwater sub‐catchment contributed at least 50% of summer flows at the Juncal River Basin outlet during the 2011–2012 water year (a hydrologically dry period in the Region), even though it accounts for only 27% of the basin area. Our study confirms the value of combining solute and isotope information for estimating source contributions in complex hydrologic systems, and provides insights regarding experimental design in high‐elevation semi‐arid catchments. The findings of this study can be useful for evaluating modelling studies of the hydrological consequences of the rapid decrease in glacier cover observed in this region, by providing insights into the origin of river water in basins with little hydrometeorological information. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Carbon capture and storage, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, and the escape from the fossil-fuel lock-in

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly depicted as an important element of the carbon dioxide mitigation portfolio. However, critics have warned that CCS might lead to “reinforced fossil fuel lock-in”, by perpetuating a fossil fuel based energy provision system. Due to large-scale investments in CCS infrastructure, the fossil fuel based ‘regime’ would be perpetuated to at least the end of this century.In this paper we investigate if and how CCS could help to avoid reinforcing fossil fuel lock-in. First we develop a set of criteria to estimate the degree of technological lock-in. We apply these criteria to assess the lock-in reinforcement effect of adding CCS to the fossil fuel socio-technical regime (FFR).In principle, carbon dioxide could be captured from any carbon dioxide point source. In the practice of present technological innovations, business strategies, and policy developments, CCS is most often coupled to coal power plants. However, there are many point sources of carbon dioxide that are not directly related to coal or even fossil fuels. For instance, many forms of bio-energy or biomass-based processes generate significant streams of carbon dioxide emissions. Capturing this carbon dioxide which was originally sequestered in biomass could lead to negative carbon dioxide emissions.We use the functional approach of technical innovations systems (TIS) to estimate in more detail the strengths of the “niches” CCS and Bio-Energy with CCS (BECCS). We also assess the orientation of the CCS niche towards the FFR and the risk of crowding out BECCS. Next we develop pathways for developing fossil energy carbon capture and storage, BECCS, and combinations of them, using transition pathways concepts. The outcome is that a large-scale BECCS development could be feasible under certain conditions, thus largely avoiding the risk of reinforced fossil fuel lock-in.     

Environmental toxicology: population modeling of cod larvae shows high sensitivity to loss of zooplankton prey

Two factors determine whether pollution is likely to affect a population indirectly through loss of prey: firstly, the sensitivity of the prey to the pollutants, and secondly, the sensitivity of the predator population to loss of prey at the given life stage. We here apply a statistical recruitment model for Northeast Arctic cod to evaluate the sensitivity of cod cohorts to loss of zooplankton prey, for example following an oil spill. The calculations show that cod cohorts are highly sensitive to possible zooplankton biomass reductions in the distribution area of the cod larvae, and point to a need for more knowledge about oil-effects on zooplankton. Our study illustrates how knowledge about population dynamics may guide which indirect effects to consider in environmental impact studies.     

Cosmogenic isotope burial dating of fluvial sediments from the Lower Rhine Embayment,Germany

Cosmogenic isotope burial dating, using ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al, was applied to Plio–Pleistocene fluvial successions from the Lower Rhine Embayment, Germany. The approach consists of three principal steps: (1) measurement of cosmogenic nuclides in depth profiles, (2) modelling of hypothetical nuclide concentrations based on a first-order conceptualisation of the geological context and the principal succession of depositions and subsequent erosional and burial phases, and (3) using parameter estimation to identify values for the a priori unknown model parameters (burial age, initial nuclide concentrations, terrace erosion rates) that result in minimal disagreement between hypothetical and measured nuclide concentrations.The Late Pliocene Kieseloolite Formation was dated to 3650 ± 1490 ka and the Early Pleistocene Waalre Formation to 900 ± 280 ka. The unconformably overlying Upper Terrace Formation revealed ages of 740 ± 210 ka and 750 ± 250 ka for the two different sites. These findings are in good agreement with independent age control derived by bio-, magneto-, and litho-stratigraphy. Furthermore, identifiability and uncertainty analysis reveal a relationship between burial depth and sensitivity of isotope concentrations to burial age and erosion rate. Our results indicate that using shallower buried samples would enable a considerably more robust estimation of the burial age and the terrace erosion rate. Uncertainties arose mainly from nuclide measurements, and not from the uncertainties derived from modelling or insufficient knowledge of nuclide production and decay properties.     

Zircon-scale insights into the history of a Supervolcano,Bishop Tuff,Long Valley,California, with implications for the Ti-in-zircon geothermometer

Zircon has the outstanding capacity to record chronological, thermal, and chemical information, including the storage history of zoned silicic magma reservoirs like the one responsible for the Bishop Tuff of eastern California, USA. Our novel ion microprobe approach reveals that Bishop zircon rims with diverse chemical characteristics surround intermediate domains with broadly similar compositions. The highest Y, REE, U, and Th concentrations tend to accompany the largest excesses in Y + REE³⁺:P beyond what can be explained by xenotime substitution in zircon. Apparent Ti-in-zircon temperatures of <720°C for zircon rims are distinctly lower than most of the range in eruption temperatures, as estimated from FeTi-oxide equilibria and zircon solubility at quench. While permissive of crystallization of zircon at near-solidus conditions, the low Ti-in-zircon temperatures are probably better explained by sources of inaccuracy in the temperature estimates. After apparently nucleating from different melts, zircons from across the Bishop Tuff compositional spectrum may have evolved to broadly similar chemical and thermal conditions and therefore it is possible that there was no significant thermal gradient in the magma reservoir at some stage in its evolution. There is also no compelling evidence for punctuated heat ± chemical influxes during the intermediate stages of zircon growth. Judging by the zircon record, the main volume of the erupted magma evolved normally by secular cooling but the latest erupted portion is characterized by a reversal in chemistry that appears to indicate perfusion of the magma reservoir by—or zircon entrainment in—a less evolved melt from the one in which the zircons had previously resided.