Carbon capture and storage, bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, and the escape from the fossil-fuel lock-in

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is increasingly depicted as an important element of the carbon dioxide mitigation portfolio. However, critics have warned that CCS might lead to “reinforced fossil fuel lock-in”, by perpetuating a fossil fuel based energy provision system. Due to large-scale investments in CCS infrastructure, the fossil fuel based ‘regime’ would be perpetuated to at least the end of this century.In this paper we investigate if and how CCS could help to avoid reinforcing fossil fuel lock-in. First we develop a set of criteria to estimate the degree of technological lock-in. We apply these criteria to assess the lock-in reinforcement effect of adding CCS to the fossil fuel socio-technical regime (FFR).In principle, carbon dioxide could be captured from any carbon dioxide point source. In the practice of present technological innovations, business strategies, and policy developments, CCS is most often coupled to coal power plants. However, there are many point sources of carbon dioxide that are not directly related to coal or even fossil fuels. For instance, many forms of bio-energy or biomass-based processes generate significant streams of carbon dioxide emissions. Capturing this carbon dioxide which was originally sequestered in biomass could lead to negative carbon dioxide emissions.We use the functional approach of technical innovations systems (TIS) to estimate in more detail the strengths of the “niches” CCS and Bio-Energy with CCS (BECCS). We also assess the orientation of the CCS niche towards the FFR and the risk of crowding out BECCS. Next we develop pathways for developing fossil energy carbon capture and storage, BECCS, and combinations of them, using transition pathways concepts. The outcome is that a large-scale BECCS development could be feasible under certain conditions, thus largely avoiding the risk of reinforced fossil fuel lock-in.     

Sufferer and cause: Indian livestock and climate change

Climate change poses formidable challenge to the development of livestock sector in India. The anticipated rise in temperature between 2.3 and 4.8°C over the entire country together with increased precipitation resulting from climate change is likely to aggravate the heat stress in dairy animals, adversely affecting their productive and reproductive performance, and hence reducing the total area where high yielding dairy cattle can be economically reared. Given the vulnerability of India to rise in sea level, the impact of increased intensity of extreme events on the livestock sector would be large and devastating for the low-income rural areas. The predicted negative impact of climate change on Indian agriculture would also adversely affect livestock production by aggravating the feed and fodder shortages. The livestock sector which will be a sufferer of climate change is itself a large source of methane emissions, an important greenhouse gas. In India, although the emission rate per animal is much lower than the developed countries, due to vast livestock population the total annual methane emissions are about 9–10 Tg from enteric fermentation and animal wastes.     

Fine-Scale Measurements Of Turbulence In The Lower Troposphere: An Intercomparison Between A Kite- And Balloon-Borne, And A Helicopter-Borne Measurement System

Two state-of-the-art, high-resolution, in situ turbulence measurement systems, which can be deployed at altitudes well above the atmospheric surface layer, are compared: the Tethered Lifting System (TLS) of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, and the helicopter-borneturbulence measurement system HELIPOD of the Technical UniversityBraunschweig, Germany, and the University of Hanover, Germany. Whilethe CIRES TLS is a fixed-point platform, HELIPOD is a moving platform.On the basis of data taken with the two systems in separate field campaigns,the system capabilities are quantified and discussed. Criteria for instrumentalrequirements are presented. It is shown that both the CIRES TLS and HELIPODare well suited for measuring fine-scale turbulence that is characterized by very small temperature structure parameters 10⁶ K² m^–2/3 and smaller) and very small energy dissipation rates (10^-7 m² s^-3 and smaller). The authors are not aware of any other turbulence measurement systems that have similar capabilities and can be deployed at altitudes of up to several kilometres. The HELIPOD is ideal for high-resolution horizontal measurements while the TLS is ideal for high-resolution vertical measurements using multiple sensors attached to a suspended line.     

Is climate change a driver of armed conflict?

The world is generally becoming less violent, but the debate on climate change raises the specter of a new source of instability and conflict. In this field, the policy debate is running well ahead of its academic foundation—and sometimes even contrary to the best evidence. Although comparative research on security implications of climate change is rapidly expanding, major gaps in knowledge still exist. Taken together, extant studies provide mostly inconclusive insights, with contradictory or weak demonstrated effects of climate variability and change on armed conflict. This article reviews the empirical literature on short-term climate/environmental change and intrastate conflict, with special attention to possible insecurity consequences of precipitation and temperature anomalies and weather-related natural disasters. Based on this assessment, it outlines priorities for future research in this area.     

Two decades of measuring environmental attitudes: A comparative analysis of 33 countries

This paper analyzes the development of environmental concern by using the three waves of the environmental modules of the International Social Survey Programme. First, we discuss the measurement of environmental concern and construct a ranking of countries according to the new 2010 results. Second, we analyze the determinants of environmental concern by employing multilevel models that take individual as well as context effects into account. Third, we explore the longitudinal aspect of the data at the macro level in order to uncover the causal relation between countries’ wealth and environmental concern. The results show that environmental concern is closely correlated with the wealth of the nations. However, environmental concern decreased in almost all nations slightly during the last two decades. The decline was lower in countries with improving economic conditions suggesting that economic growth helps to maintain higher levels of environmental concern.     

Localizing and quantifying groundwater-surface water interactions at different scales: A tracer approach at the River Moselle,Germany

Groundwater-surface water interactions (GSI) connect rivers and streams with riparian areas and the adjacent aquifer. Although these interactions exert a substantial control of quantity and quality of both groundwater and surface water, knowledge on GSI along rivers at the regional scale, particularly for inland waterways, is still limited. We investigated GSI along the river Moselle, an important federal inland waterway in Germany, by using radon and tritium to identify gaining (water flux from the aquifer to the surface water) and losing (water flux from the surface water to the aquifer) stream conditions, respectively. Gaining stream conditions were identified by continuously measuring radon along the river during boat surveys with a high spatial resolution (every 2 km) during intermediate (October 2020) and near low flow conditions (August/September 2021). The tritium concentrations in surface water and groundwater and the resulting tritium inventories were used to characterize losing stream conditions Monthly tritium inventories from 2017 to 2022 revealed a mean loss for the whole period of 20.3 % and a mean gain of 21.8%. Both were probably triggered by a combination of losing stream conditions and flood-induced mass transfer of water from the aquifer back into the river as well as discharge fluctuations. At the investigated site Lehmen there were direct indications of an influence of surface water due to elevated tritium concentrations in the groundwater (up to 13.3 Bq L⁻¹). Using radon mass balance modelling, good agreements of simulated versus measured radon data with respect to two groundwater end-member scenarios were obtained during intermediate flow (Spearman's ρ: 0.97 and 0.99; MAE: 10.1 and 3.4 Bq L⁻¹) and near low flow (Spearman's ρ: 0.97 and 0.99; MAE: 11 and 6.5 Bq L⁻¹). Considerable groundwater inflow was limited to the meander of Detzem, where cumulated groundwater inflow of about 19 m³ s⁻¹ (9.5% of total discharge) and 4.2 m³ s⁻¹ (3.8% of total discharge) was simulated during intermediate and near low flow, respectively. However, the groundwater inflow was relatively low compared to alpine streams, for example. The study will help to better identify and quantify GSI at the regional scale and provide methodological guidance for future studies focusing on inland waterways.     

Impact of diurnal atmosphere–ocean coupling on tropical climate simulations using a coupled GCM

The impacts of diurnal atmosphere–ocean (air–sea) coupling on tropical climate simulations are investigated using the SNU coupled GCM. To investigate the effect of the atmospheric and oceanic diurnal cycles on a climate simulation, a 1-day air–sea coupling interval experiment is compared to a 2-h coupling experiment. As previous studies have suggested, cold temperature biases over equatorial western Pacific regions are significantly reduced when diurnal air–sea coupling strategy is implemented. This warming is initiated by diurnal rectification and amplified further by the air–sea coupled feedbacks. In addition to its effect on the mean climatology, the diurnal coupling has also a distinctive impact on the amplitude of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It is demonstrated that a weakening of the ENSO magnitude is caused by reduced (increased) surface net heat fluxes into the ocean during El Nino (La Nina) events. Primarily, decreased (increased) incoming shortwave radiation during El Nino (La Nina) due to cloud shading is responsible for the net heat fluxes associated with ENSO.