Countries’ contributions to climate change: effect of accounting for all greenhouse gases, recent trends, basic needs and technological progress

In the context of recent discussions at the UN climate negotiations we compared several ways of calculating historical greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and assessed the effect of these different approaches on countries’ relative contributions to cumulative global emissions. Elements not covered before are: (i) including recent historical emissions (2000–2010), (ii) discounting historical emissions to account for technological progress; (iii) deducting emissions for ‘basic needs’; (iv) including projected emissions up to 2020, based on countries’ unconditional reduction proposals for 2020. Our analysis shows that countries’ contributions vary significantly based on the choices made in the calculation: e.g. the relative contribution of developed countries as a group can be as high as 80 % when excluding recent emissions, non-CO₂ GHGs, and land-use change and forestry CO₂; or about 48 % when including all these emissions and discounting historical emissions for technological progress. Excluding non-CO₂ GHGs and land-use change and forestry CO₂ significantly changes relative historical contributions for many countries, altering countries’ relative contributions by multiplicative factors ranging from 0.15 to 1.5 compared to reference values (i.e. reference contribution calculations cover the period 1850-2010 and all GHG emissions). Excluding 2000–2010 emissions decreases the contributions of most emerging economies (factor of up to 0.8). Discounting historical emissions for technological progress reduces the relative contributions of some developed countries (factor of 0.8) and increases those of some developing countries (factor of 1.2–1.5). Deducting emissions for ‘basic needs’ results in smaller contributions for countries with low per capita emissions (factor of 0.3–0.5). Finally, including projected emissions up to 2020 further increases the relative contributions of emerging economies by a factor of 1.2, or 1.5 when discounting pre-2020 emissions for technological progress.     

Conditioning of Multiple-Point Statistics Facies Simulations to Tomographic Images

Geophysical tomography captures the spatial distribution of the underlying geophysical property at a relatively high resolution, but the tomographic images tend to be blurred representations of reality and generally fail to reproduce sharp interfaces. Such models may cause significant bias when taken as a basis for predictive flow and transport modeling and are unsuitable for uncertainty assessment. We present a methodology in which tomograms are used to condition multiple-point statistics (MPS) simulations. A large set of geologically reasonable facies realizations and their corresponding synthetically calculated cross-hole radar tomograms are used as a training image. The training image is scanned with a direct sampling algorithm for patterns in the conditioning tomogram, while accounting for the spatially varying resolution of the tomograms. In a post-processing step, only those conditional simulations that predicted the radar traveltimes within the expected data error levels are accepted. The methodology is demonstrated on a two-facies example featuring channels and an aquifer analog of alluvial sedimentary structures with five facies. For both cases, MPS simulations exhibit the sharp interfaces and the geological patterns found in the training image. Compared to unconditioned MPS simulations, the uncertainty in transport predictions is markedly decreased for simulations conditioned to tomograms. As an improvement to other approaches relying on classical smoothness-constrained geophysical tomography, the proposed method allows for: (1) reproduction of sharp interfaces, (2) incorporation of realistic geological constraints and (3) generation of multiple realizations that enables uncertainty assessment.     

Common but differentiated convergence (CDC): a new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy

Abstract

This article describes a new concept for an international climate regime for differentiation of future commitments: the ‘common but differentiated convergence’ approach (CDC). Under CDC, Annex-I countries' per-capita emission allowances converge within a convergence period to a low level. Individual non-Annex-I countries' allowances converge to the same level also within the same period (‘common convergence’), but starting when their per-capita emissions are a certain percentage above global average (‘differentiated’). Until then they may voluntarily take on ‘positively binding’ targets. This approach eliminates two concerns often voiced in relation to gradually converging per-capita emissions: (i) advanced developing countries have their commitment to reduce emissions delayed and their targets are not the same as Annex-I countries with equal per-capita emissions; (ii) CDC does not provide excess emission allowances to the least developing countries. Under CDC, stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at 550 and 650 ppm CO₂-equivalent can be reached with participation at roughly 0% and 50% above global average and convergence to around 3 and 4.5 tCO₂-eq/cap within 40 years. Even if the CDC approach is not implemented in its entirety, it is possible that the step-by-step decisions on the international climate regime can be guided by the principles provided in the CDC approach.     

Chemical denudation in arctic-alpine Latnjavagge (Swedish Lapland) in relation to regolith as assessed by radio magnetotelluric-geophysical profiles

In Latnjavagge, a 9-km² drainage basin with homogeneous lithology in periglacial northern Swedish Lapland, water balance, water chemistry and radio magnetotelluric geophysical investigations along selected profiles were integrated with assessment of regolith thickness as well as of ground frost conditions within the basin. In combination with direct field observations, the geophysical profiles demonstrated presence of relatively thin regolith in most of the investigated area, yet in some parts, the bedrock was located deeper and locally was not detected at 40-m depth. TDS values of the water were generally very low. The areas that contributed with the lowest ion concentrations were cold and had a thin regolith, whereas there were higher concentrations in water that drained radiation exposed slopes with earlier thaw and thicker regolith. The low resistivities found along the profiles in the geophysical investigations in combination with the relatively higher TDS values found in related runoff and subsurface water samples showed that larger volumes of ice-rich frozen ground were not found along the investigated profiles in late August.     

Contamination risk and drinking water protection for a large-scale managed aquifer recharge site in a semi-arid karst region,Jordan

Karst aquifers in semi-arid regions are particularly threatened by surface contamination, especially during winter seasons when extremely variable rainfall of high intensities prevails. An additional challenge is posed when managed recharge of storm water is applied, since karst aquifers display a high spatial variability of hydraulic properties. In these cases, adapted protection concepts are required to address the interaction of surface water and groundwater. In this study a combined protection approach for the surface catchment of the managed aquifer recharge site at the Wala reservoir in Jordan and the downstream Hidan wellfield, which are both subject to frequent bacteriological contamination, is developed. The variability of groundwater quality was evaluated by correlating contamination events to rainfall, and to recharge from the reservoir. Both trigger increased wadi flow downstream of the reservoir by surface runoff generation and groundwater seepage, respectively. A tracer test verified the major pathway of the surface flow into the underground by infiltrating from pools along Wadi Wala. An intrinsic karst vulnerability and risk map was adapted to the regional characteristics and developed to account for the catchment separation by the Wala Dam and the interaction of surface water and groundwater. Implementation of the proposed protection zones for the wellfield and the reservoir is highly recommended, since the results suggest an extreme contamination risk resulting from livestock farming, arable agriculture and human occupation along the wadi. The applied methods can be transferred to other managed aquifer recharge sites in similar karstic environments of semi-arid regions.     

Linkages between the North Pacific Oscillation and central tropical Pacific SSTs at low frequencies

The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) recently (re-)emerged in the literature as a key atmospheric mode in Northern Hemisphere climate variability, especially in the Pacific sector. Defined as a dipole of sea level pressure (SLP) between, roughly, Alaska and Hawaii, the NPO is connected with downstream weather conditions over North America, serves as the atmospheric forcing pattern of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and is a potential mechanism linking extratropical atmospheric variability to El Ni?o events in the tropical Pacific. This paper explores further the forcing dynamics of the NPO and, in particular, that of its individual poles. Using observational data and experiments with a simple atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), we illustrate that the southern pole of the NPO (i.e., the one near Hawaii) contains significant power at low frequencies (7–10?years), while the northern pole (i.e., the one near Alaska) has no dominant frequencies. When examining the low-frequency content of the NPO and its poles separately, we discover that low-frequency variations (periods >7?years) of the NPO (particularly its subtropical node) are intimately tied to variability in central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) associated with the El Ni?o-Modoki/Central Pacific Warming (CPW) phenomenon. This result suggests that fluctuations in subtropical North Pacific SLP are important to monitor for Pacific low-frequency climate change. Using the simple AGCM, we also illustrate that variability in central tropical Pacific SSTs drives a significant fraction of variability of the southern node of the NPO. Taken together, the results highlight important links between secondary modes (i.e., CPW-NPO-NPGO) in Pacific decadal variability, akin to already established relationships between the primary modes of Pacific climate variability (i.e., canonical El Ni?o, the Aleutian Low, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation).     

Climate change: long-term targets and short-term commitments

International negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change could take several different approaches to advance future mitigation commitments. Options range from trying to reach consensus on specific long-term atmospheric concentration targets (e.g. 550 ppmv) to simply ignoring this contentious issue and focusing instead on what can be done in the nearer term. This paper argues for a strategy that lies between these two extremes. Internationally agreed threshold levels for certain categories of impacts or of risks posed by climate change could be translated into acceptable levels of atmospheric concentrations. This could help to establish a range of upper limits for global emissions in the medium term that could set the ambition level for negotiations on expanded GHG mitigation commitments. The paper thus considers how physical and socio-economic indicators of climate change impacts might be used to guide the setting of such targets. In an effort to explore the feasibility and implications of low levels of stabilisation, it also quantifies an intermediate global emission target for 2020 that keeps open the option to stabilise at 450 ppmv CO₂ If new efforts to reduce emissions are not forthcoming (e.g. the Kyoto Protocol or similar mitigation efforts fail), there is a significant chance that the option of 450 ppmv CO₂ is out of reach as of 2020. Regardless of the preferred approach to shaping new international commitments on climate change, progress will require improved information on the avoided impacts climate change at different levels of mitigation and careful assessment of mitigation costs.     

Heavy ion escape from Mars, influence from solar wind conditions and crustal magnetic fields

We have used more than 4 years of Mars Express ion data to estimate the escape of heavy ions ( and ) from Mars. To take the limited field of view of the instrument into account, the data has been binned into spatial bins and angular bins to create average distribution functions for different positions in the near Mars space. The net escape flux for the studied low solar activity period, between May 2007 and May 2011, is 2.0 ± 0.2 × 10²⁴ s⁻¹. The escape has been calculated independently for four different quadrants in the Y_MSO − Z_MSO plane, south, dusk, north and dawn. Escape is highest from the northern and dusk quadrants, 0.6 ± 0.1 × 10²⁴ s⁻¹, and smallest from the south and dawn quadrants, 0.4 ± 0.1 × 10²⁴ s⁻¹. The flux ratio of molecular ( and ) to O⁺ ions is 0.9 ± 0.1, averaged over all quadrants. The flux difference between the north and south quadrants is statistically significant, and is presumed to be due to the presence of significant crustal magnetic fields in the southern hemisphere, reducing the outflow. The difference between the dawn and dusk quadrants is likely due to the magnetic tension associated with the nominal Parker angle spiral, which should lead to higher average magnetic tension on the dusk side. The escape increases during periods of high solar wind flux and during times when co-rotating interaction regions (CIR) affect Mars. In the latter case the increase is a factor 2.4-2.9 as compared to average conditions.     

The formation of iron hydroxide coatings in an Emscher Marl: inverse reactive transport modeling of reactive surface area

The possible effects of iron oxide coatings on the reactive surface area of calcite in column experiments have been studied and then modeled numerically. A column with six compartments separated by teflon filters was packed with Emscher Marl (essentially calcite). The marl was initially mixed with corundum as an internal standard. Hydrochloric acid with pH 3 was percolated through the column for a given period, after which the mineralogical changes were quantified by X-ray diffraction ex-situ. Then, the column compartments were re-filled and again percolated with HCl. This procedure was repeated five times. The losses and gains of calcite in the column compartments provided the data basis for modeling the entire experiment with the reactive transport code TOUGHREACT using a kinetic rate law. The experimental results showed that during the first period, loss of calcite in the first compartment is about 50 % less than that determined from the theoretical analysis. This showed the entrance of acid into the higher compartments through preferential flow paths (wormholes) which was observed at the boundary between sample and cell wall. This pattern could also be verified by the relatively high Peclet and low Damköhler numbers, showing a strongly advection-dominant system. Apart from calcite dissolution, structural Fe²⁺ released from calcite oxidized and formed iron hydroxide (FeOOH) coatings along preferential fluid pathways. Despite specific assumptions such as using pure calcite in the model, a comparison between modeling results and lab observations is instructive. The simulated calcite change patterns in the most compartments are consistent with the experiments. Some discrepancies are noted in the last compartment, which may bring the attention to a need for model improvements.     

Developments in national climate change mitigation legislation and strategy

The results are presented from a survey of national legislation and strategies to mitigate climate change covering almost all United Nations member states between 2007 and 2012. This data set is distinguished from the existing literature in its breadth of coverage, its focus on national policies (rather than international pledges), and on the use of objective metrics rather than normative criteria. The focus of the data is limited to national climate legislation and strategies and does not cover subnational or sectoral measures. Climate legislation and strategies are important because they can: enhance incentives for climate mitigation; provide mechanisms for mainstreaming; and provide a focal point for actors. Three broad findings emerge. First, there has been a substantial increase in climate legislation and strategies between 2007 and 2012: 67% of global GHG emissions are now under national climate legislation or strategy compared to 45% in 2007. Second, there are substantial regional effects to the patterns, with most increases in non-Annex I countries, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Third, many more countries have adopted climate strategies than have adopted climate legislation between 2007 and 2012. The article concludes with recommendations for future research.

Policy relevance The increase in climate legislation and strategy is significant. This spread suggests that, at the national level, there is some movement in reshaping climate governance despite the relatively slow pace of global negotiations, although the exact implications of this spread require further research on stringency of actions and their implementation. Asia and Latin America represent the biggest improvements, while OECD countries, which start from a high base, remain relatively stagnant. Implications of regional patterns are further refined by an analysis by emissions, which shows that some areas of low levels of legislation and strategy are also areas of relatively low emissions. A broad trend toward an emphasis on strategies rather than legislation, with the significant exception of China, calls for enhanced research into the practical impact of national non-binding climate strategies versus binding legislation on countries’ actual emissions over time.