National climate change mitigation legislation,strategy and targets: a global update

Global climate change governance has changed substantially in the last decade, with a shift in focus from negotiating globally agreed greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets to nationally determined contributions, as enshrined in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This paper analyses trends in adoption of national climate legislation and strategies, GHG targets, and renewable and energy efficiency targets in almost all UNFCCC Parties, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2017. The uniqueness and added value of this paper reside in its broad sweep of countries, the more than decade-long coverage and the use of objective metrics rather than normative judgements. Key results show that national climate legislation and strategies witnessed a strong increase in the first half of the assessed decade, likely due to the political lead up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference in 2009, but have somewhat stagnated in recent years, currently covering 70% of global GHG emissions (almost 50% of countries). In comparison, the coverage of GHG targets increased considerably in the run up to adoption of the Paris Agreement and 89% of global GHG emissions are currently covered by such targets. Renewable energy targets saw a steady spread, with 79% of the global GHG emissions covered in 2017 compared to 45% in 2007, with a steep increase in developing countries.

Key policy insights

• The number of countries that have national legislation and strategies in place increased strongly up to 2012, but the increase has levelled off in recent years, now covering 70% of global emissions by 2017 (48% of countries and 76% of global population).

• Economy-wide GHG reduction targets witnessed a strong increase in the build up to 2015 and are adopted by countries covering 89% of global GHG emissions (76% not counting USA) and 90% of global population (86% not counting USA) in 2017.

• Renewable energy targets saw a steady increase throughout the last decade with coverage of countries in 2017 comparable to that of GHG targets.

• Key shifts in national measures coincide with landmark international events – an increase in legislation and strategy in the build-up to the Copenhagen Climate Conference and an increase in targets around the Paris Agreement – emphasizing the importance of the international process to maintaining national momentum.

     

The Langeland Fault System unravelled: Quaternary fault reactivation along an elevated basement block between the North German and Norwegian–Danish basins

The reactivation of faults and possible impact on barrier integrity marks a critical aspect for investigations on subsurface usage capabilities. Glacial isostatic adjustments, originating from repeated Quaternary glaciations of northern Europe, cause tectonic stresses on pre-existing fault systems and structural elements of the North German and Norwegian–Danish basins. Notably, our current understanding of the dynamics and scales of glacially induced fault reactivation is rather limited. A high-resolution 2D seismic data set recently acquired offshore northeastern Langeland Island allows the investigation of a fault and graben system termed the Langeland Fault System. Seismo-stratigraphic interpretation of reflection seismic data in combination with diffraction imaging unravels the spatial character of the Langeland Fault System along an elevated basement block of the Ringkøbing–Fyn High. In combination with sediment echosounder data, the data set helps to visualize the continuation of deep-rooted faults up to the sea floor. Initial Mesozoic faulting occurred during the Triassic. Late Cretaceous inversion reactivated a basement fault flanking the southern border of the elevated basement block of the Ringkøbing–Fyn High while inversion is absent in the Langeland Fault System. Here, normal faulting occurred in the Maastrichtian–Danian. We show that a glacial or postglacial fault reactivation occurred within the Langeland Fault System, as evident by the propagation of the faults from the deeper subsurface up to the sea floor, dissecting glacial and postglacial successions. Our findings suggest that the Langeland Fault System was reactivated over a length scale of a minimum of 8.5 km. We discuss the causes for this Quaternary fault reactivations in the context of glacially induced faulting and the present-day stress field. The combination of imaging techniques with different penetration depths and vertical resolution used in this study is rarely realized in the hinterland. It can therefore be speculated that many more inherited, deep-rooted faults were reactivated in Pleistocene glaciated regions.     

The geodynamic and limnological evolution of Balkan Lake Ohrid,possibly the oldest extant lake in Europe

Studies of the upper 447 m of the DEEP site sediment succession from central Lake Ohrid, Balkan Peninsula, North Macedonia and Albania provided important insights into the regional climate history and evolutionary dynamics since permanent lacustrine conditions established at 1.36 million years ago (Ma). This paper focuses on the entire 584-m-long DEEP sediment succession and a comparison to a 197-m-long sediment succession from the Pestani site ~5 km to the east in the lake, where drilling ended close to the bedrock, to unravel the earliest history of Lake Ohrid and its basin development. ²⁶Al/¹⁰Be dating of clasts from the base of the DEEP sediment succession implies that the sedimentation in the modern basin started at c. 2 Ma. Geophysical, sedimentological and micropalaeontological data allow for chronological information to be transposed from the DEEP to the Pestani succession. Fluvial conditions, slack water conditions, peat formation and/or complete desiccation prevailed at the DEEP and Pestani sites until 1.36 and 1.21 Ma, respectively, before a larger lake extended over both sites. Activation of karst aquifers to the east probably by tectonic activity and a potential existence of neighbouring Lake Prespa supported filling of Lake Ohrid. The lake deepened gradually, with a relatively constant vertical displacement rate of ~0.2 mm a⁻¹ between the central and the eastern lateral basin and with greater water depth presumably during interglacial periods. Although the dynamic environment characterized by local processes and the fragmentary chronology of the basal sediment successions from both sites hamper palaeoclimatic significance prior to the existence of a larger lake, the new data provide an unprecedented and detailed picture of the geodynamic evolution of the basin and lake that is Europe’s presumed oldest extant freshwater lake.     

Central Mediterranean tephrochronology between 313 and 366 ka: New insights from the Fucino palaeolake sediment succession

Thirty-two tephra layers were identified in the time-interval 313–366 ka (Marine Isotope Stages 9–10) of the Quaternary lacustrine succession of the Fucino Basin, central Italy. Twenty-seven of these tephra layers yielded suitable geochemical material to explore their volcanic origins. Investigations also included the acquisition of geochemical data of some relevant, chronologically compatible proximal units from Italian volcanoes. The record contains tephra from some well-known eruptions and eruptive sequences of Roman and Roccamonfina volcanoes, such as the Magliano Romano Plinian Fall, the Orvieto–Bagnoregio Ignimbrite, the Lower White Trachytic Tuff and the Brown Leucitic Tuff. In addition, the record documents eruptions currently undescribed in proximal (i.e. near-vent) sections, suggesting a more complex history of the major eruptions of the Colli Albani, Sabatini, Vulsini and Roccamonfina volcanoes between 313 and 366 ka. Six of the investigated tephra layers were directly dated by single-crystal-fusion ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating, providing the basis for a Bayesian age–depth model and a reassessment of the chronologies for both already known and dated eruptive units and for so far undated eruptions. The results provide a significant contribution for improving knowledge on the peri-Tyrrhenian explosive activity as well as for extending the Mediterranean tephrostratigraphical framework, which was previously based on limited proximal and distal archives for that time interval.     

Monitoring and volumetric estimation of injected CO2 using 4D seismic,petrophysical data,core measurements and well logging: a case study at Ketzin,Germany

More than 50 000 tons of CO₂ have been injected at Ketzin into the Stuttgart Formation, a saline aquifer, at approximately 620 m depth, as of summer 2011. We present here results from the 1^st repeat 3D seismic survey that was performed at the site in autumn 2009, after about 22 000 tons of CO₂ had been injected. We show here that rather complex time‐lapse signatures of this CO₂ can be clearly observed within a radius of about 300 m from the injection well. The highly irregular amplitude response within this radius is attributed to the heterogeneity of the injection reservoir. Time delays to a reflection below the injection level are also observed. Petrophysical measurements on core samples and geophysical logging of CO₂ saturation levels allow an estimate of the total amount of CO₂ visible in the seismic data to be made. These estimates are somewhat lower than the actual amount of CO₂ injected at the time of the survey and they are dependent upon the choice of a number of parameters. In spite of some uncertainty, the close agreement between the amount injected and the amount observed is encouraging for quantitative monitoring of a CO₂ storage site using seismic methods.     

The impacts of a Laki-like eruption on the present Swedish society

In this study, we analyse and discuss the possible impacts on the Swedish society of a volcanic eruption on Iceland, emitting ash particles and large quantities of sulphur dioxide. A scenario was developed, based on the historical Laki eruption of 1783–1784, to describe the content of a potential sulphur fog over time in Sweden. Due to its high complexity and the many uncertainties in the underpinning scientific data, the scenario was developed using a cross-disciplinary approach incorporating experts from different scientific fields. An analysis of the impacts of the hazard on human health, environment and technical equipment was then performed and, finally, representatives from national authorities assessed the overall societal challenges in responding to the consequences of a massive volcanic eruption. The analysis shows that it is the peak concentrations of sulphur dioxide and sulphuric acid rather than the longer periods of moderate concentrations that contribute most to the negative consequences for human health and environment. Altogether, three societal challenges were identified: the ability to compile and disseminate relevant information fast enough, to perform continuous measurements of concentrations of different substances in affected areas and to meet the large demand for medical care.     

Quantitative assessment of the climate components driving the pacific decadal oscillation in climate models

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is defined as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. In this study, we reconstructed the PDO using the first-order autoregressive model from various climate indices representing the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Aleutian Low (AL), sea surface height (SSH), and thermocline depth over the Kuroshio–Oyashio extension (KOE) region. The climate indices were obtained from observation and twentieth-century simulations of the eight coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase III (CMIP3). In this manner, we quantitatively assessed the major climate components generating the PDO using observation and models. Based on observations, the PDO pattern in the central to eastern North Pacific was accurately reconstructed by the AL and ENSO indices, and that in the western North Pacific was best reconstructed by the SSH and thermocline indices. In the CMIP3 CGCMs, the relative contribution of each component to the generation of the PDO varied greatly from model to model, and observations, although the PDO patterns from most of the models were similar to the pattern observed. In the models, the PDO pattern in the eastern and western North Pacific were well reconstructed using the AL and SSH indices, respectively. However, the PDO pattern reconstructed by the ENSO index was quite different from the observed pattern, which was possibly due to the model's common deficiency in simulating the amplitude and location of the ENSO. Furthermore, the differences in the contribution of the KOE thermocline index between the observed pattern and most of the models indicated that the PDO pattern associated with ocean wave dynamics is not properly simulated by most models. Therefore, the virtually well simulated PDO pattern by models is a result of physically inconsistent processes.